NEW Survey: What year is the next 20% downturn from S&P 500 peak?

Water Cooler Investing
#21

What are you invested in? I think market conditions are particularly favorable at the moment for various types of leveraged products, but I haven’t seen anything with 20% yields that I’ve wanted to commit capital to.

Regarding the original question, do you mean a 20% drop from current levels, or 20% drop from a future high of SPX? If it’s the first one, chances are never in our relevant timelines. The market will most likely keep going up in the mean time, and a bigger and bigger decline will be needed to create that event. If it’s the second condition, then the probability is much more likely. However, we will need to see different geopolitical conditions, such as destabilization in China, or revolution in the West that will convince governments to accept nominal asset value destruction rather than inflation or negative interest rates.

#22

MORL, REML

lower yield - BDCL, CEFL

#23

igor what do you think of DVYL ?

#24

20% drop from future high. basically a cycle peak

#25

Check out the yield curve in 2014 vs today, significantly flatter which IMO indicates this rally is coming to a close.

That said, doesn’t mean we’ll won’t see the S&P rally to new highs on a daily basis.

#26

you read gluskinsheff? that guy talks about that yield curve a lot. with that said, i dont like gartman.

#27

dont like risk/return

#28

I haven’t. Any interesting articles to cite?

#29

no online articles. its a paid subscription. but he essentially has a chart that tracks that through 7 decades? also does it fo unemployment and consumer confidence. im sure a quick google search could turn up similar charts made by others.