I hope so. 80-85% seems like a reasonable assumption for the top 1%. The MPS would work out to about 60% if the top 1% scored 85%. 95% would be unbelieveable.
Working backwards from the data for 2003 (when that pdf was on the cfai site), the minimum passing score was 52.5%, which would suggest that the top 1% average was 75%. I don’t know if the 2003 test was substantially harder than 2008, or if the top 1% is so much smarter and more dedicated now as then, but if not, then it suggests that 95% is a very unlikely 2008 score for the top 1%.
Just came back to DC from Chicago - good to see added analysis - admittedly, my 95% for the top 1% was provocative - now that you’ve pitched in with some more precise figures, our collective MPS hypothesis looks more realistic. Let’s all hope that it becomes the MPS that we all surpass!
I think they use the Angoff Method now for marking, not 70% x the average of the top 1% of scores. Also, no shows don’t count towards the evaluation. I read that somewhere on a CFAI article.
Suppose 100,000 people take the exam and the passing mark is 70% of the top 1%. The Chinese enlist 10,000,000 of their brothers and sisters to show up fo rthe AM and PM sections and just sign their names. I’ll bet most of the 100,000 who tried would pass…
Clever Joey. And don’t forget that CFAI will be VERY RICH after 10 million chinese pay their $600 fees. Not sure about how much paper will be consumed in CFA books.
nah - we’ll just print it in kanji - will take less space, less paper.
^And probably about just as coherent (or should I say confusing) to us English speakers… Some of the chapters might as well have been in Mandarin…