Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before stumbling. Proverbs 16:18
why do you care what we think about oil over the next 6 months if you already have the answer and have a crystal ball?
Actually I don’t, never said I did, never implied I did. just pointed out some shit that was wrong, that’s all. I’m open to ideas though. My view right now is bearish, but I appreciate that there is considerable uncertainty, and am open to objective information. Biased opinions are… well, I’m less interested in those.
My boss was at this meeting yesterday. Here’s an excerpt from the Midland-Reporter Telegram.
http://www.mrt.com/business/oil/article_02e71ca8-3a3a-11e5-9377-07f7ce811ae1.html
What the hell does this have to do with levered ETFs?
lol can’t troll a troll
Thanks Greenman. The article doesn’t give an explicit view on the direction of oil, but I learned some stuff from it.
if you had to guess, is Greenman black or white?
Ray Perryman said he expected price to increase to ~$70 over the next year, IIRC.
Apparently, Saudi Arabia used $97/barrel as a base price for a lot of their social programs (Medicare and Social Security), and the low prices have caused them to completely deplete their treasury. Ergo, Perryman expects them to cut back production at the next OPEC meeting in order to boost prices.
That’s interesting. Their bully tactic so far has been been to declare they wouldn’t cut production at all, but it could be a deception. I agree it should go up within a year, but when the turnaround is… well that’s a tough one. A Saudi production drop would be a good catalyst for that though.
i really despise this argument. not you greenman, but the argument itself. why would saudi arabia reduce their employment levels and the associated aggregate demand and taxation for the sake of producing a few hundred thousand level barrels a day, when they’re the lowest cost producer? from my point of view, saudi arabia should do what the big three iron ore miners are doing now. produce as much as you possibly can and price everyone out. except the situation is even better for them because there is a benefit to producing more (e.g. employment, taxes, etc). i’d much rather have a poorer working class than a rich unemployed class. much less trouble with the poorer working class.
No, I believe it is highly unlikely they will raise production. They are playing for marketshare here…it’s probably not gone unnoticed to them that oil prices may stay low, but it also depends on internal politics of course.
I agree with that!
[Sweep the Leg accused me of having too high a disagree-to-agree ratio, thus I am working to improve my stats]
not necessarily raise production but certainly not reduce production to accomodate iran or other overproducing OPEC members.
Anyway, I sold my position in DWTI for profit of $20 USD per share (in at 115.5, out at 135.5)