pass rate predictions

I do remember passing L2 in 2018 and saying to myself “that test was FAR easier than in 2017”. So, what if we got the hard exam for L3 this year.

As if the exam oscillates in difficulty from year to year like fan.

Saying that we got the hard L3 exam this year is very subjective. But hopefully pass rate doesnt get too low.

Every soul is busy pressing on the Panic Button. Yes the pass rates across levels are correlated but very occassionally it had significant diversion. Last yr. the Pass % was significantly higher at L1- 43% , L2- 45 % AND L3-56%. 2019 The same has notched down to L1-41% and L2-44%. Really, what do we expect at LIII …Even if I take a 3% point dip it would be 53% which has been the lowest since last 5 years. But I doubt it would dip any further. My best guessestimate is 54%. No way it can be 51% like someone posted above.

Im guessing 52%. The 2019 pass rates for level 1 and 2 are exactly the average of 2009-2018 10year pass rate.

The 10-year pass rate for level 3 is 52%

Based on reddit posts and official CFAI statements so far, pass rates reflect the difficulty of the exam and how many people score more than the MPS (which is set based on their evaluation that it’s the min score one would get to reflect sound understanding of the material). What I read from this is that the pass rate depends on the quality of exam takers in any given year. If the MPS is 80, but everyone who takes the exam scores >80, then the pass rate would be 100%. It’s not like they decide ok guys this year we’re gonna pass only 50% of the candidates for level 3 because the L1 and L2 candidates were shite.

Same

Okay but I’m pretty sure this year’s exam was brutal. I mean PM session being this difficult really says a lot. I knew I was fucked as soon as I started with the afternoon exam.

I am pretty sure the MPS has to be less than or equal to 70%.

55% with the MPS at 64%.

Unreal.

It means that more than 55% of candidate completed PM session with ~80% score on the average.

Children. . . If we’ve learned anything it’s that you obviously need to tackle this in terms of a range. Just calculate 3 S.Ds away from the mean of the pass rates for a 99% prediction. Duh.

Or they’ve hit AM out of the park

2.58 Duhh!