Every soul is busy pressing on the Panic Button. Yes the pass rates across levels are correlated but very occassionally it had significant diversion. Last yr. the Pass % was significantly higher at L1- 43% , L2- 45 % AND L3-56%. 2019 The same has notched down to L1-41% and L2-44%. Really, what do we expect at LIII …Even if I take a 3% point dip it would be 53% which has been the lowest since last 5 years. But I doubt it would dip any further. My best guessestimate is 54%. No way it can be 51% like someone posted above.
Based on reddit posts and official CFAI statements so far, pass rates reflect the difficulty of the exam and how many people score more than the MPS (which is set based on their evaluation that it’s the min score one would get to reflect sound understanding of the material). What I read from this is that the pass rate depends on the quality of exam takers in any given year. If the MPS is 80, but everyone who takes the exam scores >80, then the pass rate would be 100%. It’s not like they decide ok guys this year we’re gonna pass only 50% of the candidates for level 3 because the L1 and L2 candidates were shite.
Okay but I’m pretty sure this year’s exam was brutal. I mean PM session being this difficult really says a lot. I knew I was fucked as soon as I started with the afternoon exam.
Children. . . If we’ve learned anything it’s that you obviously need to tackle this in terms of a range. Just calculate 3 S.Ds away from the mean of the pass rates for a 99% prediction. Duh.