Applying Time-Series Analysis on previous CFA passing rates, my forecast is that the passing rate this time around would be 49%. If my forecast turns out to be wrong, you can’t get back to me because I have a reasonable & adequate basis for my forecast. 
51
Guys! You are definitely suffering overconfidence bias! You should state a confidence interval instead of a point estimate! What the hell did you study of Behavioral Finance!
My estimate range is 25 - 40%. Not actually ran a Monte Carlo sim, sorry.
45%
think 50-55% pass rate. it was an easy test compared to 2011, 2010.
Isn’t 0% to 100% range is more confident?
completely disagree with you
completely disagree with you
~ 50%
One shall stand, one shall fail.
A third try? Should be successful.
this was my first. im just comparing to 2011, 2010 in the AM. also a lot of people seemed to think PM was very hard last year, and i think most found it easier this year.
i’m borderline w/ an estimated score of about 73-72%.
The people are expressing overconfidence. This year PM is much harder than it was in 2010 and 2011 - much more traps.
Pftt… Herding Behavior BEST explains it.
This question is harder than any CFAI L3 question. No transparency, no valid benchmark, no disclosure.
SAMURAI? Nu.
…
Minimum passing score cannot be higher than 70%, so you’re golden.
The real revenue generator is to let everyone and their pet goldfish pass L1, and then clamp down on 2 and 3 to prevent dilution. It’s like a seductress luring you in, once you’re hooked you keep going back to try and try again
It is unlikely since the CFAI is a nonprofit organization and revenue generation is not their objective. I think they receive enough funds from membeship fees and from selling the obligatory Program curriculum books to candidates (it was no such practice before 2010).
I don’t agree with your reasoning bender. Even non-profits have an incentive to max revenue (they just spend the profit rather than distribute it to owners). But I do agree with your point. If CFAI was all about maxing revenue, they would make L2 relatively easy and L3 almost impossible to pass, since we are apparently myopic and loss adverse…
I think the reason for the high hurdle has to do with a) supporting the idea that successful candidates are super intelligent and b) appeasing existing CFA Charter holders who would not be so willing to hand over annual fees if CFAI began opening up the shop.
I think, there is no any reason for the high hurdle at all - there is just another approach the CFAI took to testing of its candidates. Why? I can tell you. The Program is based on several books which were issued in 2007. Hence, the core material is aged. Before 2009 i needed to buy main textbook each year to be prepared and thereby spent a lot of money. Because each year the CFA program was different and i purchased the refererence books in advance. However, on/after 2009 they stoped the practice - the several main textbooks were issued and they began to sell 'em to candidates. I purchased in the market old level 3 CFA Program textbooks (2010and 2011) to be prepared for 2012 - THERE IS NO ANY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE among the years but minors. What we then have? The candidates who failed last year can enrol each consequitive year and thus to memorize the material as Bible by heart (as for me, for example, at the end of my preparation i was able to get through the entire Volume 3 for 6 hours including all practice problems and examples). What the CFAI must undertake to keep the charter valuable then? To change its approach to testing. How? To make the problem wording more intricate, to test your logical thinking, to test the material the candidates are likely to consider as nonimportant - the various providers like Scheweser and Co help the CFAI to sway the candidates off the course because the people always seek easy ways to get through. The providers sell us the core material and make us to concentrate on the core (formulas, advantages/limitations, main characteristics, etc). Thus, the people exhibit INERTIA and DEFAULT! So, the people need to pay a higher attention to the CFAI main textbook material and not rely on the providers. This substitutes your time and effort for the money you were to spend each year. That is why guys say that this year exam was highly demanding. And, i expect, it will be even harder next years provided the CFAI keeps the books in force.