Question for the atheists/non-religious

You can’t just axiomatically state that though. China can’t grow at 6% for the next 10 years.

Empirically we’ve gone from 10% in the early 2000s to 6-7% now, and even those numbers are suspect.

Theory wise, China is running out of room to grow as the low hanging fruit is picked off. Catching up is easier than moving past:

Lewis Turning point - https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1326.pdf

Solow-swan/Developmental economics models - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solow%E2%80%93Swan_model

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/china-population-crisis.html

Many compare China’s demographic crisis to the one that stalled Japan’s economic boom in the 1990s.

i would take consensus estimates with a grain of salt.

look at this chart instead. look at the max data.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual

sure they are slowing from 2008 but i would say it is more flattish since 2013. saying 2% growth by 2030 is extrapolating recent data. looking and comapring the big picture for us and china. i would not bet against china.

as far as teh demographic argument goes. it kind of makes sense. but i dont buy into it that much. the japan scenario is possible, but im not smart enough to assume that it is their trajectory.

all i am saying is that china is a cause for concern. and i am willing to bet that they will dominate the world. but nowadays anything goes. you can destroy so many things with a nuke. the bigger you are, the bigger the target.

Plus, if they invent the next gunpowder or paper population changes are meaningless :bulb:

I’m inferring your organization is religious in nature? If not directly affiliated with the church, maybe at least loosely? I’d still come be a guest speaker, sure. You know why? You’re all prospects.

Would I do it if there wasn’t an opportunity to bring on new clients, network, or otherwise increase my earning potential, I wouldn’t come. Not because it’s religious, but just because I’m lazy.

No, I would not get offended by a prayer. Screw those people anyway.

Now if I got roped into a “have you accepted Jesus as your Lord and Savior?” talks…yes, I’d probably try to flee the scene asap.

^Not religious at all. Purely personal finance related.

Is this a Muslim prayer? If so, it would make sense as prayer 5 times a day is necessary for satisfying Salat. If it is arbitrary and not required by your religion, then you could still pray but you should vote in the official religion of the organization first. :+1:

I mean, work force population is the primary driver, their long term GDP move follows their boom and now the shift demonstrated in the NYT article citing WorldBank is essentially a mathematical law. The 2% numbers aren’t based on chart extrapolations, they’re based on fairly reliable fundamental models looking at primarily among other things, population growth.

those are fair points. but i just dont buy the idea that what happened in the us will necessarily happen to china. or the fact that china now is the us 20 years ago. i’ve seen arguments for it. and i just dont buy it. i dont think anyone is smart enoug hto predict it. its like when people make predictions on a growth company. the numbers are all suspect. i prefer to look at historical performance and get an average of that.

also i saw a documetnary where the chinese are just doing mail order brides. pretty funny effect from the one child policy.

again let me just reiterate my main point is taht anyone either can win the race. my personal opinion though is that china has the edge and will win. imo most people who dont agree are just in denial with the current situation of us decline.

Given where you live, I can’t imagine it would be that big of a deal or shock for a guest speaker.

It boils down to two questions for me. Is there an opportunity for the speaker to network and add clients? If so, you could pray to satan and a good salesperson would happily wear the goat head. If it’s purely educational and doesn’t advance the speaker’s business in any way, I’d at least give the speaker a head’s up beforehand. Not because he/she may be “triggered” by the prayer, but more so they have a better read of the room before presenting and conversing with your peeps.

Hey look we’ve all come to an agreement finally.

The host: should consider the guests feelings The guest: should consider the hosts feelings

If there’s no rapport: no complaining that you’re upset If there’s established rapport: turn on the water works, and start crying about how much the great Buddha upset you until your lunch is comped.

I just lurk…You guys outclass me in most conversations. Bots and trolls included.

I think this is exactly right. I probably wouldn’t care, but I would think it’s just religious people being self-indulgent again… More generally, why do you invoke god before talking about tax deductions? Why not recite the pledge of allegiance or sing the national anthem too?