Irishgyy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I just rebalanced all my 401k to Money Market Fund > yesterday, already YTD -29%, is that a wise thing? > > I have been receiving more disagreement than > agreement. > I just got the feeling the Dow is going below 8000 > in the near future. But will watch for reentry > point. Obviously I can be wrong, but I think you picked a bad place to take your losses. The market is down nearly 40% from the highs, and technical analysis is giving me signals that a bottom is very close. I still haven’t seen capitulation, but when it does occur the market may be down another 5-10% from today’s close, but the ensuing rally (which I think is going to be another bear market rally) is going to be sharp and vicious. It wouldn’t surprise me to see SPX rise 15% to 20% from capitulation lows in this corrective bounce. The trick is to sell the rallies not sell into the hole. But if takes a massive weight off your shoulders by being out of the market then be thankful that it’s just money and you have your health. Cheers.
PtrainerNY Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > I won’t give advice to those who lost 30-40%. But > I just know my neighbors had a house for sale. > Wouldn’t sell at 500k because their other > neighbors sold at 600k. They ended up getting 400k > for “waiting”. Overpriced houses are easy to spot. Just look at rents in the neighborhood and do some calculations. The same can’t be said of stocks.
mo34 Wrote: > > Overpriced houses are easy to spot. Just look at > rents in the neighborhood and do some > calculations. The same can’t be said of stocks. Are you sure you are on the right message board. Extreme Example: A stock with a P/E of 600 isn’t over priced? Some stocks cant be analyzed because they are borderline. But many can.
I think this is very wise. Market could still be down for another 20%, it is not likely it is going to be up even 5% in the near future.
I’m going with mistake. . . we may go down from here a bit more but when conditions become more comfotable the market will have already made its move.
PtrainerNY Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > Are you sure you are on the right message board. > Extreme Example: A stock with a P/E of 600 isn’t > over priced? Some stocks cant be analyzed because > they are borderline. But many can. Is that your argument? are there people still looking at P/E ?? In anycase P/E = 600 (and sometimes P/E=infinity) didn’t seem too much back in 2000, it’s all relative. As for the message board comment, you’re too insignificant to even worry about.
Guss I was right, I exit when Dow was about 9600. Plenty of leeway to watch for reentry.
Irishgyy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Guss I was right, I exit when Dow was about 9600. > > Plenty of leeway to watch for reentry. same here, not as right as exiting at 13600 but whatev moving 100% to UYG