… S&P is down 80bps. This market really has spoiled ppl…
Nice insightful read with actual empirical substance. Appreciate it!
Great read, indeed. Thanks for sharing!
http://fundfire.com/pc/1872714/218704
rentech. ballas shat callas.
Quantitative investing powerhouse Renaissance Technologies is preparing for possible market volatility, which could bring “significant” risk of a correction in stock prices, _Bloomberg_reports.
The current S&P 500 index’s price-to-earnings ratio of about 18.6, compared with about 11 in 2011, may be substantiated if volatility stays low and 30-year bonds stick to sub-3%, Hubner writes.
“However, with higher rates and more volatility a distinct possibility, there is a significant risk that asset prices will correct,” he warns. Equity investors may not be concerned about “the fear of missing out,” but “increasing euphoria mixed with a bit of complacency certainly is” cause for concern, writes Hubner.
“Historically low levels of volatility may well have given investors a false sense of security in the nearly two years since the last market correction,” Hubner writes in the letter reviewed by Bloomberg.
Renaissance is also concerned by the flattening yield curve, with Hubner warning there are “technical pressures” on Treasurys that could further hamper bond prices.
Hubner questions who is going to buy “the paper the Federal Reserve accumulated during the years of quantitative easing?”
Renaissance is billed as the “world’s most profitable hedge fund,”
Flattening is OK i think, inversion is a problem. Hopefully inflation doesn’t rear it’s ugly head and catch the fed with their dick in their hands needing to jack up rates aggressively. Then it’s bye bye bull market!
inflation is already out of control. its all lies to keep the market going
Minor market uncertainty.
So did the dummies figure out yet the tax cuts are QE4, the market never survived 2008, all the numbers are fake, and it’s just waiting to come crashing down? It’s a loooooong way down kids! 
*yawn* up 5% YTD. I’d say that’s a prettyyy good start to the year.
is pa the best lockdown shorter on AF
After falsely predicting so many market crashes post 2009, can’t deny his useless insight is likely to come true someday in the distant future.
#goodluckAlphie
That never happened.
I point out opportunity cost says it’s better to be places like CSI300, and have been correct. Just like I did with subprime starting in 2003, I point out there are made up numbers here, and it’s going to correct, but I put no date on that. Can take a long time, like it did then.
I bet you were one of the housing bubble denialists! 
LMAO, you know it’s amateur hour when people are citing hussman articles. Ever take a look at the guys track record? embarassing
thats what happens when you’re a permabear though. marc faberrrrrrrrr
hussman’s alright. his analysis isn’t wrong, he just didn’t initially account for market/valuation momentum, the fact that valuations can remain extreme for long periods and that the market has an internal yield that is earned by investors who continue to be invested. he’s made those adjustments now and is sounding a little more level headed. he’s not the kind of guy i would want running my portfolio but he would be a good associate to bounce ideas off of. he’s a scientist not a trader.
when D-Day occurs, the world will still look to the hussmans and granthams of the world to help predict when the damage is done.
He’s a terrible investor period. You don’t take investment advice from terrible investors.
The guy’s flagship fund is Strategic Growth. Lost money in 8 of the last 10 years, including -9% in 2008. How does a perma bear lose money in 2008 and lose money in the recovery? That’s impressive. The fund is up 14% since inception in 2000, not 14% per year, just 14%. He’s underperformed t-bills by about 65% since inception and stocks by about 150%. The market would have to fall by 58% just for him to break even at this point. Best part about that is he’d still tell you stocks are overvalued and he’d miss the recovery.
But yeah, I guess he’s alright, if you like paying 1.31% a year to underperform your local credit union savings accounts.
down 9% aint bad. considering everyone was down 40 to 50%. but yea he sucks. lol down with the hussman.
Howard Mark has some good stuff on the Oaktree website. If you look at the historical stuff, he seems to accurately “call” sell offs within a 2-3 year time periods (probably the best you can do).
Are we in a recession? No idea, but I know you can expect one every 5 - 20 years following a recovery and we’re currently in year 9-10. Economy seems to be overheating, crazy products like bitcoin trading at astronomical levels, people pouring money into index funds like never before inflating all companies whether they are properly run or not, historically low unemployment rates, interest rates are still too low (maybe artificially), leverage loan / CLO market very inflated, and to top things off US just dumped 1.5 trillion on stimulus on top of everything.
So yeah, we could very well be in a recession or the beginning of a big market sell off, but again who knows. Greenspan said there was “irrational exuberance” in 98 and the market flew for the next two years. I’ve decided to take a little of the table and gradually work my way up to about 40% cash with the rest in solid companies with true earnings, solid balance sheets, etc. I’ll also admit that I think DJT is a complete moron and can’t imagine anything positive happening under his watch so very biased in that regard, possibly to a fault.
like i said, hussman’s data is useful. his market calls not so much. at some point you need to make a call for a top and a call for a bottom. without using his data or data like his, i don’t know how you can possibly do either.
i am 15% in cash. but i am usually fully invested with just 10k in the bank.
According to who? Nobody is mandating that you call anything and long term investors have done pretty well ignoring that type of advice.