^ Uh haven’t you been saying that for years? What has the S&P returned since you’ve made your short America call?
S&P hasn’t made as much as CSI300, shocking as it might sound there are other markets. 
Valuations just get more and more stretched, as they throw everything at it by selling out their future, and their society rots.
^ you deflected the question. you were categorically wrong about your short America call, sorry bud.
^ Nope, review my threads, I spell it out in no uncertain terms so no online weasels can wiggle their way out. Long-game underweight overvalued DM and overweight undervalued EM (CSI300 especially). Bchad and Ohai said I was wrong, but nope they have been wrong! And the West’s overvaluation is only just starting to unwind, decades more coming kiddo. 
In this thread, on Sept 1, 2015, you said the fair price for the S&P is 1387. That day the S&P was at 1972, implying 30% downside was your S&P forecast. Instead, the S&P is up 25% since that day, and is currently 78% higher than your target price from that day.
And you call yourself a forecaster? That’s hilariously bad. I mean, a blind monkey throwing darts could do way better.
i think this market is overvalued. im just not a fan of shorting, or going all in or out. i cap my modifications by like bands, usually about ±20% at the most. At this point i keep about 15 to 20% cash/short term bonds. i would usually go all out.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/29/robert-shiller-vs-jeremy-siegel-on-stock-valuations.html
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/04/diversification-adaptation-and-stock-market-valuation/
A valuation and a forecast are two different things.
Alphie- How much more time do you want to *prove* you’re wrong?
#SeriousQ
It can’t be a “serious question,” because that would require you reading the thread.
Pulling my IBKR report from yesterday:
2016 = 23.7%
2017 YTD = 23.4%
So clearly there is no requirement to be long SPX (I have not been). It’s overvalued by my calc, so I stay away…went long China, HK, Brazil, and other stuff when they dipped. So I have already been proven correct.
Welcome to investing 101, opportunity cost. 
Who else is short S&P going into the September “meat grinder”? This month I didn’t roll over the puts against my short, I’ve got a good feeling about this; Kim, reversing QE, debt ceiling, natural disasters, central banks. Cmon, we need some chaos!
Looks like my dream of a Sept pullback is dead. 
No Irma, no debt ceiling debacle, no Kim missiles. Meanwhile corporatist D.C. all working together to steal from the poor and give to the rich. Got a feeling they can now push thru a tax scam that will pump up CAPM. And a renewed health care scam.
Maybe it’s not as expensive as it seems? Are you willing to pay 25 for an economy that has been over-depressed for years? Hmm, maybe yea because there’s still a lot of upside potential within that context. Once you get back to normality you should see a better relationship between P/E and stock prices then…
I think the other question to ask is whether 2017 conditions warrant a higher multiple of price to forward earnings compared to previous years. Take financial shares for instance. Banks have much better balance sheets now compared to 2007. So, they are safer and their earnings should be more expensive. Perhaps a combination of global stability, low volatility, low interest rates, or other factors have changed the fundamentals of these ratios such that they should be different from historical values.
You could combine both thoughts actually. A win-win setup. Historically, this market should be correcting any day now, but maybe today’s global economy means cycles will last longer than before. Just an idea…
interesting piece
anyone still shorting this baby?