How are you guys calculating (estimating) minimum scores. I get the 40/60/80 bit, but how are you assigning weights?
I had to delete it. DIdn’t want to be mean. Gonna drink a 40 ouncer of malt liquor to get my brain back in equilibrium after reading his posts.
I also scored Band 9 last year. I think I scored at least 58%. I came to this number by applying the following logic:
If I scored less than 50%, I assumed that I scored 33% by chance. If I scored between 51% and 70%, I assumed that I scored 51%. If I scoreed greater than 70%, I assumed that I scored 71%.
Since each question is worth three points, I rounded up to the next number divisible by three. For example, if a section had 36 point (12 questions), and I scored > 70%, .71*36 = 25.56, so I round up to 27. I didn’t round up my less than 50% sections, since I’m assuming that I got 33% in all. This translates to a score of 57.9%.
I think that makes sense because bands are supposed to be approximately equal-scores in size. If the MPS is, say, 65%, then (65%-33%)/10=3.2% per band.
So last year, I’m thinking if 65% was a pass, then maybe 61%-64% was band 10 and 58%-61% was Band 9 (which matches my estimated score).
If you guys go on Page 5 of this thread-" Official CFA Level 2 results 2014", u can search on google on analyst forum, there hv been 2 scores posted by rahul roy. The one who failed band 10 was in 2012 and generally had most scores in 51-70. So it was easier to see the minimum possible score of this guy by using integer only scores. The score came out to be 76/120 which is 63%. So, pass score tht time also was surely above 65%. I think no score less than 80/120 is safe
I think that the ranges for upper bands (10/9) are lower perhaps 2-3 questions (1,7% - 2,5%) less than passed MPS because sb. who score band 10/9 should be very close to the limit … I think that my score last year was about 62% (band 10), so my estimation is that average MPS is 64% (63,7% - 64,5%). But also my opinion is that definitely score below 80 question is not safe and score bellow 76 question is failed.
Is it fair to estimate that the bands start at 40 questions answered correctly. For instance if I had no knowledge of the material on average I would still get 40 Qs correct based on probability. Then the bands are approximately 3-4 correctly answered questions apart. This is probably the adjustment factor that CFAI reserves for itself depending on the difficulty of the test. If we assume they are 3.25 questions apart then a band 10 failure would have scored 73 questions correctly and a pass would start at about 76 questions right out of a possible 120
It is clearly mentioned somewhere on CFAI website that all bands are equally split. So, its not like Band 10 is closer than other bands. But, i am surprised last year MPS being 66% despite 46% clearing the exam. Above 46% students have marks above 66% is huge
Hello
I’m also a retaker (band 10 last year).
@inkybinky : based on your smart approach I’ve estimated that my minimum “worst score” (however always taking the lower bound, even if for topic is below 50% => got 2 like this) was 61.7% (74/120) which seems to match your band 10 confidence interval estimation. So saying that the MPS was 65% (78/120, ceteris paribus) or above seems acceptable, as a very lower bound.
@love_lord’s : I totally agree. less than 80 should lead to band 10 in the “better case”, generally speaking and you’re right in notifying that the 46% pass rate was high last year.
Eventually, on one hand assuming that the exam was more straightforward this year and on the other and, taking into account the 46% previous pass rate and the 65% previous MPS, we should expect an MPS above 65%, probably very close to 70% (than mean in the 78-84/120 range).
@BBRV…What were your scores subject-wise? I guess there is a difference of 2 ques between 10th band and pass
I simulated 3003 test results based on your 11 tests. I had to make some assumptions about the distribution shape for your “sure”, “unsure”, “guess”. I believe they are fairly reasonable assumptions.
Here are three samples (n=11) from my 3003 runs. SD and %correct for “sure”, “unsure”, “guess”:
6.310261 9.541021 20.740637 86.04904 61.47366 34.68994 6.305877 9.520171 20.739694 85.88108 61.49601 33.39758 6.298508 9.508920 20.724449 85.82426 60.83946 32.92069 For your actual test I get 6.8% probability that you scored below 66%. This is likely not the ideal way to model this. For example, “sure” and “unsure” were simulated as independent, but they are probably not as one will tend to get lower % on each for a harder test. The bottom line is that I agree with your conclusion that you passed. 6.8% is probably an overestimation of the failure chance because MPS will get lower as the tests get harder.
^ looks mid 60s to me, obviously this is very approximate. But not getting the ethics adjustment there sucks. Looks like a pass to me with the adjustment, unless MPS was high (67-69)
I personnaly still think I miss last year for one point…
I remember your matrix and another member’s. The minimum correct number of answers for you and the other guy are 74 or 75. The highest among band 10. If 3 answers separate band 10 and pass, the MPS is probaly 78. I also noticed that the ugliest passing matrix could have max 84 or 85 correct answers. So 80-84 could be standard expected MPS.
Don’t tell me you failed with this scorecard…
[/quote]
Don’t tell me you failed with this scorecard…
[/quote]
Unfortunately it seems to be the reality…
How can the MPS be 78?
In the last few posts it was bout the correct answers among the 120 questions, not percentage.
I failed with that scorecard…
call it 70% on most of the exam
51% o of exam
50% on ethics and Alt of exam… (I thought i was at worst 8/12 on ethics so thought 6 was fair to assume)
So I guess I would have had a 61 Assuming on Ethics/PM and lowest of the other two ranges… maybe it did only get like a 62 or 63… my hunch is I was ax’d on the ethics adjustment
Lets see the score possible:-
Ethics-6/12 max
Alt-3/6 max
Econ-4/6 max
FI-4/6 max
Derivatives-8/12 max
PM-8/12 max
EQ-18/24 assumed
FRA-18/24 assumed
Corp-10/12 assumed
Quant-5/6 assumed
I have applied the marks using mostly the max range and it comes out to be 84 questions correct. I have considered the max range in all subjects below 70. This was Band 10 score.