He failed ethics
This is one of the best ways to estimate %correct on the actual test: callibrate your performance based on mocks and then match the actual test numbers with the mock results.
What do you think of the MPS this year?
I think last year’s exam was easier.
If you’re asking me, I finished with about 20 minutes and 12 minutes to spare, but I kept working through questions that I had starred right until the end. I didn’t end up changing any answers, though.
A scenario that im considering is that i knew the correct answer “cold” for at least 54 questions and guessed on the remaining 66. In reality I guessed on less than this, and was able to narrow it down to 50/50 on many. Assuming I hit 33% of the guesses correct and got 22 right… Thats a 76 which would need an MPS of 63%… That’s my base case right now… But I still believe I did better than this… Either way its very close.
Piggybacking off of your comment:
Let x = # of questions you guessed on
Let 33% = # of questions you guessed on that you got right
Let 120-x = # of of questions you’re certain you got right
Let MPS = 120 x 70% = 84 questions right
So: .33x + 120 - x = 84.
Solving for x, x = 54 questions you guessed on; 1 - x = 66 questions you’re certain about.
If A, B, and C answers are evenly distributed on the exam, then you could be fairly confident of passing if you were sure you could nail 55% of the material (66 out of 120 questions) and guessed all A, B, or C on the remaining questions.
If the above is true, I need to revise my studying/test taking strategy. I’m starting to feel worse about studying as many hours as I did and failing to boot. 
^^ the above is true… 3 problems 1. No proof that answers are evenly distributed 2. Often times your guess is going to be biased based on the trick/trap which may force you to eliminate the true answer, so its better to guess blind randomly which frankly is hard to do based on the stakes of the CFA exam 3. Need to be really confident on the questions you’re sure about… 66 is a lot…
I believe that if you read the question and cannot find the right answer and then guess, the correct rate will be lower than the statistical 33.33% because your confusion on the question will sway you away in negative way.
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“sway you away in a negative way”
Sounds like my mom when I started drinking and smoking cigarettes with the “cool” kids in 8th grade. Now I’m a 28 year old bum who probably failed the CFA Level II Exam.
Back to clicking refresh on Analyst Forum for the next few hours.
Even for me it would be somewhere in the range 65-70. Do we know the exact MPS for the last few attempts or is it only speculation through the bands and category allocation(<=50, 50-70, >70)? If its anywhere below or equal to 65, I believe I have a decent chance of passing.
Here is the score from 2012 where u can easily calculate minimum possible score without assuming zero in any section since no score is below 50:-
What wud u find is that minimum possible score is 76/120. So, MPS cud easily be 80
2012- Failed Band 10
- Alternative Investments 18 - * - - Corporate Finance 36 - - * - Derivatives 36 - - * - Economics 18 - - * - Equity Investments 72 - * - - Ethical & Professional Standards 36 - * - - Financial Reporting & Analysis 72 - * - - Fixed Income Investments 36 - * - - Portfolio Management 18 - - * - Quantitative Methods 18 - * -
why did you fail with this score?
You can’t score 50-70 in Ethics, FRA, Equity, and FI and expect to pass with flying colours. You were probably off by 1-2 questions.
Depending on the weights back then. Apply 60% and 80% to their weights.
Most important topics FRA, Equity, Ethics and FI all in the 50-70 range and can only assume they were closer to 50 than to the 70 mark
Firstly, the weights are already mentioned in the score.
Secondly, even though this guy failed in Band 10 with all major sections in middle range, as i said, minimum possible score is coming out to be 76. That, when u assume 13 in each of FRA and Equity.
Even if this guy wud hv got 2 more questions correct than mimimum score, he was at 78/120 and thats 65%. Now, if u r band 10 at 65%, then it means less than 80/120 is not at all safe
I dont understand what those weights in the score mean or how to interpret them. They cannot refer to the number of questions in each topic as there are not that many questions in the exam. Please help
^each question is worth 3 points. Its <50, 50<>70, >70 The idea is that you *should be able to pass with 4/6 on every item set at 66.67%