Less than 41% guaranteed with both internal and external credit enhancements
Only flat out guessed on 1 in the AM, and 3 in the PM. In the AM, I had about 10 that I wasn’t 100% sure on, but thought I knew. PM was about 15. The rest I felt pretty sure about. So, assuming worst case scenario of 0 right of my guess, half of my “<100% confident” right, and 20% dumb mistakes of my “pretty sure” ones --> AM: 39+5 = 44 PM: 33+7 = 40 -->84 / 120. I’d be surprised if the pass mark was higher than 80.
AM 40/60 PM 30/60 70/120, Band 8 or 9. See you next year 
OK do I have a problem if I have run a sensitivity and scenario analysis on this? Or is it only a problem if I run a Monte Carlo Simulation? I’m thinking right around the 74% range. My pessimistic is probably a little low and my optimistic is a little high. AM Questions#…Best/Worst/Pessim./Optimistic/Average 1-6–5—3---4—5--- 4 7-12 —5--- 3—4---4— 4 13-18 - 2-- 3-- 4-- 3.5 19-24 - 5-- 2-- 3-- 4-- 3.5 25-30 - 5-- 3-- 4-- 5-- 4 31-36 - 5-- 3-- 4-- 5-- 4 37-42 - 5-- 3-- 3-- 5-- -4 43-48 - 5-- 4-- 4-- 5-- 4.5 49-54 - 5-- 4-- 4-- 5-- 4.5 55-60 - 5-- 3-- 3-- 4-- 4 Session Score 83% 50% 60% 77% 67% PM Questions… Best/ Worst/Pessimistic/Optimistic/Average 61-66— 6— 5— 5— 6— 5.5 67-72— 6—4 —5 6— 5 73-78— 6— 4— 5— 6— 5 79-84— 6— 3— 4— 5— 4.5 85-90— 5— 4— 4— 5— 4.5 91-96— 5— 3— 4— 5— 4 97-102— 5— 4— 4— 4— 4.5 103- 108–6— 4— 4— 5— 5 109- 114- 6— 4— 4— 5— 5 115- 120- 5— 3— 3— 5— 4 Session Score 93% 63% 70% 87% 78% Total Score % 88% 57% 65% 82% 73% AM ------------------- Best/-Worst-/Pessimistic/Optimistic/Average — Best -------88%—72%----72%-------85%---------80% PM Worst-------73%—57%----62%-------70%---------65% — Pessimistic-77%—60%----65%-------73%---------68% — Optimistic–85%—68%----73%-------82%---------77% — Average— -81%—64%----69%-------78%---------73%
AM: 40/60 PM: 48/60
I remember someone posting in Level II that last year they walked out feeling very confident. Not only did they fail but to add insult to injury it was band 7. And I’ve talked to some people who have no clue how they ended up passing. Personally I think I failed, but if my guesses were good then there might be a chance. I think a lot of people will be surprised in August. With only 120 questions the difference between getting band 7 and band 10 could only be a few questions so don’t give up if you see a band 6 or something come results day!
0 - 50% 51 - 70% 71 - 100% Ethics - x - QM - - x Econ. - - x Corp. Fin. - x - FSA - x - Equity - x - F. income - - x Alt.asses x - - Der - - x PM - x - 70.0 %, this is my pessimistic estimate (but not worst case)
I guess keeping aside the score we should hope on random probability selection. If that strategy fails then i would go for trail and error 
AM: 60-70% PM: 80-90% Overall: 70% (pessimistic) - 75%(expected)- 80% (optimistic) but if 40%+ guys around the world are nailing 70%+ then CFA has really become competitive and I probably failed, although a tail risk :P.