Yeah, I followed the election a bit, Mr. Rudd doesn’t have an easy task on his hands.
He says they are pulling in spending but some say not by enough, I hope they are! my personal loan is up to 13.95%, it’s getting crazy
on shorting this stuff- I’ve been short the DIA since it was at 133 with a good chunk of money (several months ago before it went up to 140). Problem is, the rest of my personal portfolio has tanked so all it has turned out to be is a hedge… I’m thinking about closing the short out tomorrow and doubling down on the rest of the positions in my account…
fed will act in emergency fashion - even if it’s just a 25 bp cut prior to 50 at the end of the month. Haven’t you seen big Ben cheer leading that we aren’t going to have a recession (which he couldn’t possibly believe because it’s utter nonsense)? This accommodative stance signals that he will try and keep things afloat out there in the next couple of days, depending on how bad tomorrow is.
Fed can only delay the drop. Market needs to price in all the risks before it can go up again. With so much panic right now, there should be a tradable rally soon. But remember to sell, I think there are more downside coming. We need at least a few more months before all these mess being sort out. I have been holding all cash for a few weeks.
The market is overreacting to this whole thing. CDOs are only down in price because banks are taking trading book losses, not because the actual asset is worthless. In 2 years they will be reaping massive windfalls as they are written up again. Or at least somebody will be.
Bush should call a speech around 9am declaring an end to the war.
Robb Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I looking in to shorting the index when some of > the AF guys where talking about it a few months > back, alas there was no options in Australia to > short our index, no good, considered shorting > individual stocks but decided against it. Huh? The SPI 200 (or whatever) futures contract is very liquid on SFE. What did you need that was better than that?
Asia was bad, but Europe has rallied quite a bit, I still think the US futures are out to lunch, or implying a high probability of fed intervention
goes to eleven Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > I may be naive in the short run, but I think I > will be okay in the long-run. In the long run we are all dead. Looks like we are in the short run as well
Looks like sentiment has changed post the Asia region close…Europe seems to have rallied, US futures only predicting a 5% decline…
75 bps. Is that a helicopter I hear!
Fear the Beard! So, do markets sell off anyway because of the “last minute” cut? Are things so bad the Fed couldn’t wait a week. I think so.
I think this is terrible long term. I went from a bear waiting for a drop, to a just a bear
This guy really needs to stop talking… == Bush isn’t ruling out more forceful move The Associated Press January 22, 2008 at 9:55 AM EST WASHINGTON — The White House said Tuesday President Bush isn’t ruling out a larger economic stimulus package than the $150-billion (U.S.) already envisioned.
The $150 billion stimulus is going to be paid for by tax cuts, yes?
It will be paid for by future taxpayers, just like how today’s rate cut will be paid for by future consumers and debtholders when we deal with 6,7%+ inflation.
CFA_Halifax Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > It will be paid for by future taxpayers, just like > how today’s rate cut will be paid for by future > consumers and debtholders when we deal with 6,7%+ > inflation. Can you explain further why the rate cut will cause such high inflation in the future?
dieselbp67 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > CFA_Halifax Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > It will be paid for by future taxpayers, just > like > > how today’s rate cut will be paid for by future > > consumers and debtholders when we deal with > 6,7%+ > > inflation. > > Can you explain further why the rate cut will > cause such high inflation in the future? I think the shape of the yield curve explains it better. But simply put, the fed is slashing rates to hell at a time when (unlike earlier this decade) the USD is very low by historical standards, hence the cost of imported goods has nowhere to go but up. Too much money (worth less by internation standards) chasing too few goods They are feeding the debt frenzy which has created the current mess, and saying to overleveraged consumers and speculators, “it’s OK that you over consumed/under saved and invested in highly risky products with high return and high risk; because at the slightest hint of trouble, we’ll throw you a life line because that’s what CNBC and Wall Street wants us to”. In two words: Moral Hazard
What choice is there? 1. Screw the financial markets, send us tumbling into a severe recession, contract the monetary supply, further tumble the markets. Millions of layoffs, followed by millions of defaults, screwing the financial markets more, sending us tumbling into a more severe recession. or 2. Cut rates and try to glide things down.