A picture is worth a thousand words, so you’re right it’s not a sentence, it’s dozens of them.
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I’m curious your thoughts on the frequency distribution of possible Trump presidencies. Do you not think that regardless of your dislike of Trump, the fact that the mostly unknown diverse distribution makes Trump an extremely risky candidate? While we could both disagree with 100% of Hillary’s policies and stances, we have a very good idea (relative) what she would do as president. Trump, on the other hand, likely has huge tail risk in addition to a wider distribution of outcomes. Perhaps I view the world in terms of asymmetric risks too frequently, but it just seems a huge hurdle to overcome. And while Trump supporters seem to say he isn’t a war hawk, he also makes comments like he’d shoot down taunting jets. This seems to further illustrate we do not know if Trump is or isn’t a war hawk.
I might get shot saying this in Boston but JFK may be up there on the list of crime families.
^ Papa Joe Kennedy, world class crook.
Good example of risk vs uncertainty.
Correct, this is what I’ve said from the beginning, it’s classic asymmetric risk, no rational person would make this move.
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Naw, as usual I’m solid. Clinton outcomes are so narrow, basically no change other than the steady unavoidable decline in America. Trumpers don’t understand math.
Maybe so. But how do you determine the Trump outcomes? The answer should likely have nothing to do with Clinton. Curious how you’d answer this
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The Trump outcome is that he burns everyone who trusts him, as the republicans have already learned. There is no upside case.
I certainly see that in Trump as well. But politics is a mixture of actions and appearances. I agree with you that many of the things people get upset about that he says may not actually convey what he means. But then some of those statements do, such as that time he spoke of defaulting on our debt. These sort of statements could impact the real world very quickly and have huge consequences, even if he couldn’t execute or even didn’t mean it. So if we agree that he says things he shouldn’t from time to time, how do you think about the risk this introduces? Surely this probability is not zero. And based on his campaign , there does not seem to be any chance he changes his communication style.
I come from a state where we had a Trump-esque politician arise from the depression. He had good intentions and to this day many people (especially the poor) have favorable memory of him. But I would never want to live in an environment he produced while in power. That history has always colored my perception of Trump
I don’t trust him, so I guess I’ll be okay.
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You’re looking in desperation for a highly improbable upside case…“maybe we’ll get lucky and get some micro-gain in some niche area”.
But probably steep to catastrophic overall loss. Hence asymmetric risk/reward profile.
Nobody has mentioned the shitshow going on in Korean politics ( not even PA has brought it up) which makes this years us election look ordinary
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You’re also overestimating the amount of power the President has, particularly over the economy. If The Donald gets elected, you’ll have about six hours get out of your short positions and then things will go back to normal.