Eff. Dang girlfriend wants to start talking about THAT. I guess all the money I was going to use to buy these heavily discounted stocks will be going to the DeBeers Company.
nothing grows forever. we are facing a structural change, not a cyclical one. this is not a temporary deleveraging, but a permanent one. the good news is that once that change filters through the system we will a healthier, more robust economic finacial system, with a more sustainable future (albeit with lower LT growth expectations). the bad news is the restructuring is going to be difficult with asset repricing, risk appetite adjustment, and significant disruption and consolidation - this will happen on a global scale. hard to know how long this will take, but its seems to be evolving quickly. just look at the developments over the last several weeks. Personally, I expect the markets to drop another 10%, and housing to drop another 10% (at a national level - some regions will be far worse). doomsday scenarios abound…this will be bad, but it will get better. just think of this as a wicked hangover, from a decade of debauchery.
Aspiring Analyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Wow, this post, coming from you Joey, is seriously > a tough blow for me. I kid you not, I was driving > back from my hometown last night, anxious as all > hell about our economy/markets, and I was > seriously thinking about starting a thread on here > asking for some words of reassurance from you. > Just looking for any glimmer of optimism. Though I > don’t always agree with you, I have a tremendous > amount of respect for you. You are something of a > financial father figure to me and I’m sure many > others on here, and I was hoping you might have > some little nugget of knowledge that might give me > reason to cheer up about this whole mess. > > Now, hearing you say this, well… it just sucks. > This situation looks grim. I can’t stop reading > about it, thinking about it, it is absorbing all > of my attention. I was a barrel of sunshine just a > few weeks ago, but my opinion has changed > dramatically. As a youngster of only 22 years, I > never thought I would even have to remotely > consider some of the possibilities that seem all > too likely at this point, nor did I ever expect to > be so deeply impacted on a personal level by such > a global/macro issue. It is truly depressing. I mean no offense to the original poster at all, but am I the only one who found this post mildly humorous? I’m the same age as and, although I’m concerned with the market turmoil for career reasons, I’m viewing it as the ultimate buying opportunity to start a lifetime of investing. If you are my age, have a job, have limited debt and have little exposure to the equity markets, you should be able to muster some optimism. Then again, if you are unemployed, have huge debt, or are reliant on stock positions for monthly cash flow needs (I’d sure hope not), then you have more reason for concern. Just my $.02
Gecco Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > just think of this as a > wicked hangover, from a decade of debauchery. I wish I had been around for more of the debauchery, rather than just here for the hangover. However, I agree that there is a big regime shift in the offing, and that once we make it through, things will get a little more “normal,” even if not at the same growth rates we’ve seen in recent years. Big question is “how long will it take to get back to ‘normal’?” and “do I have enough savings job/security to get there?”
MFE Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > JoeyDVivre Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I’m getting depressed. This is so ugly… > > > yep, it’s hard not to get depressed in this > environment. Luckily I am <30 and maybe it’ll be > tough times for next 3 years, but I’ll rebound. > > I feel sorry for the individuals that were close > to retirement but now have been let go, and saw > there options go to zero. I’ve heard several > individuals out there losing 80%+ net worth that > was tied up in their company’s stocks, Bear > Stearns & Lehman Brothers, Wachovia. Reminds me > of Enron folks. Not much they could do about the options except maybe exercised them earlier. However, with respect to losing 80% of their wealth because it was essentially tied to one stock, I have no sympathy for them. Diversification could have easily and cheaply protected the severity of their losses. Everyone who buys a security should know this, if they don’t and get burned, tough cookies pal.
Gecco Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > nothing grows forever. we are facing a structural > change, not a cyclical one. this is not a > temporary deleveraging, but a permanent one. the > good news is that once that change filters through > the system we will a healthier, more robust > economic finacial system, with a more sustainable > future (albeit with lower LT growth expectations). > the bad news is the restructuring is going to be > difficult with asset repricing, risk appetite > adjustment, and significant disruption and > consolidation - this will happen on a global > scale. hard to know how long this will take, but > its seems to be evolving quickly. just look at > the developments over the last several weeks. > Personally, I expect the markets to drop another > 10%, and housing to drop another 10% (at a > national level - some regions will be far worse). > doomsday scenarios abound…this will be bad, but > it will get better. just think of this as a > wicked hangover, from a decade of debauchery. We are in the revulsion stage of the Panic of 2008, how long it lasts nobody knows, but you are right, the system will work itself out in due course. The Fed howver, will be forced to back the liabilities of market participants–big and small.
dcallocchia0322 Wrote: > I mean no offense to the original poster at all, > but am I the only one who found this post mildly > humorous? > > I’m the same age as and, although I’m concerned > with the market turmoil for career reasons, I’m > viewing it as the ultimate buying opportunity to > start a lifetime of investing. > > If you are my age, have a job, have limited debt > and have little exposure to the equity markets, > you should be able to muster some optimism. > > Then again, if you are unemployed, have huge debt, > or are reliant on stock positions for monthly cash > flow needs (I’d sure hope not), then you have more > reason for concern. > > Just my $.02 I’d appreciate it if you read my subsequent post. Look, I am not expecting my own downfall here. I recognize that if this is going to happen in my lifetime, this is arguably the best age for it to happen. Whether or not its prudent, I am still putting away the same amount as I have always been into my Roth and 401k, and I am still investing 100% in equities. I am not exactly stockpiling canned food and ammo and stashing cash under my mattress. I’m still employed, paying my bills, living within my means, and I understand that in the long term we will bounce back and I’ll be glad I decided to stay the course by continuing to invest. Like I said–again, in my previous post–my concern is more just one for our country as a whole. If you think there isn’t at least a distinct possibility (not to say it is by any means definite) that this crisis is far from over, then IMO you are underestimating how bad this situation really is. And regardless of what happens, a lot of people are going to be feeling the effects of this for years to come, and it’s going to hurt. This is going to break a lot of less fortunate or less prudent people’s backs. Similarly, it’s just a strange feeling to consider that we may one day look back at this period as a turning point in terms of the power and influence of the US relative to other nations, and also the way we do business and regulate said business. The sky’s the limit as far as what will change at this point, and I suppose it is that fear of the unknown (which may be anywhere from minimally to very substantially different than the current status quo) that has me feeling uneasy. Just a recognition of the fact that we really have no idea how bad this situation is and what will change as a consequence.
Aspiring Analyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > dcallocchia0322 Wrote: > > > I mean no offense to the original poster at > all, > > but am I the only one who found this post > mildly > > humorous? > > > > I’m the same age as and, although I’m concerned > > with the market turmoil for career reasons, I’m > > viewing it as the ultimate buying opportunity > to > > start a lifetime of investing. > > > > If you are my age, have a job, have limited > debt > > and have little exposure to the equity markets, > > you should be able to muster some optimism. > > > > Then again, if you are unemployed, have huge > debt, > > or are reliant on stock positions for monthly > cash > > flow needs (I’d sure hope not), then you have > more > > reason for concern. > > > > Just my $.02 > > I’d appreciate it if you read my subsequent post. > Look, I am not expecting my own downfall here. I > recognize that if this is going to happen in my > lifetime, this is arguably the best age for it to > happen. Whether or not its prudent, I am still > putting away the same amount as I have always been > into my Roth and 401k, and I am still investing > 100% in equities. I am not exactly stockpiling > canned food and ammo and stashing cash under my > mattress. I’m still employed, paying my bills, > living within my means, and I understand that in > the long term we will bounce back and I’ll be glad > I decided to stay the course by continuing to > invest. > > Like I said–again, in my previous post–my > concern is more just one for our country as a > whole. If you think there isn’t at least a > distinct possibility (not to say it is by any > means definite) that this crisis is far from over, > then IMO you are underestimating how bad this > situation really is. And regardless of what > happens, a lot of people are going to be feeling > the effects of this for years to come, and it’s > going to hurt. This is going to break a lot of > less fortunate or less prudent people’s backs. > > Similarly, it’s just a strange feeling to consider > that we may one day look back at this period as a > turning point in terms of the power and influence > of the US relative to other nations, and also the > way we do business and regulate said business. The > sky’s the limit as far as what will change at this > point, and I suppose it is that fear of the > unknown (which may be anywhere from minimally to > very substantially different than the current > status quo) that has me feeling uneasy. Just a > recognition of the fact that we really have no > idea how bad this situation is and what will > change as a consequence. I agree with your concern on a macro scale, I just believe that people our age have little reason to worry day-in and day-out about our personal financial stability. As Joey pointed out, we have many things to look forward to in life rather than worrying about how the stock market performs during our mid-20’s. We have our whole lives to work. I too am concered with what this means for the U.S. and global economies. With that said, I believe a recession will be for the better in the mid to long run. I am just as guilty as any American in that I over-extended myself with credit and must now pay off my debt before someone will lend to me with confidence. It’s going to be painful for me, and all Americans, for a while. But after all is said I done I believe we can emerge as a stronger leading financial power.
I am speechless - this is groundhog day
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I’m getting depressed. This is so ugly… Out of all people, I’m surprised this is coming out of you. it’s always darkest before dawn.
Shorting the ES, YM, and NQ last night made me lots of spending money today. 
it is going to be a long night
Jeoyvirdare has seen it all. If he thinks this is bad…then it’s really bad.
Yep, but the worst was the panic of 1873. We could barely keep the mules fed.
warren buffett is a silly man to have all of his net worth tied up in his company…