One thing I have noticed from this financial crisis is how everyone, from TV Analysts, coworkers, this board, and at even times myself, is suddenly Nostradamus and KNEW all of this was going to happen. I believe there has been studies on this sort of selective memory. Such as how people claim they remember seeing the 1st plane crash into the World Trade Center. I’m mentioning this because I’ve seen a lot of smug no-it-alls pontificating on what went wrong, as if they forsaw it all along.
From Jan 17, 2008: JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > So things are looking ugly. Just for fun (no > remarks about efficient markets, unbiased prices, > etc. allowed), let’s hear prognostications for > year end. > > Here are mine: > > Dow: 10,000 > Gold: 1000 > Oil: 100 > Joey: 46 > Election: One of the Republicans after Hillary and > Obama eat each other. > Real Estate: Getting crushed and getting worse > despite shoddy govt attempts to bail out lenders > and free up credit. Real Estate performs even > worse than equities. > Structured finance products: A liquidity crisis in > the summer causes there to be some really great > deals out there if you can supply liquidity to the > market. > Basketball: Carolina is undefeated for the entire > season and runs away with the National Champion, > handily crushing South #1 seed Duke 102-12 in the > national championship game (ok, I’m not too sure > about this one). How about that? “A liquidity crisis in the summer” “shoddy govt attempts to bail out lenders”… Freaking Nostradamus only with clear numbers. OK, so I screwed up the basketball thing. Edit: In hindsight, my election prediction wasn’t really consistent with my other calls. Hillary and Obama did their best to eat each other, but the Republicans are getting blamed for at least some of the economic problems.
This thread is not off to a good start to prove my point. Haha. Well done Joey. Hopefully you made a killing off your Lehman puts!
“OK, so I screwed up the basketball thing.” You were just early JDV. That is going to happen this season.
It’s one thing when it’s your coworker or friend and you know what they said. It’s another when it’s someone on tv or a politician. In that case, there should be a record of them saying it. It’s as simple as going and finding it. While many noted that it was a problem, for instance McCain co-sponsored legislation to limit Fannie/Freddit, few knew it would be this bad. Nouriel Roubini, Barry Ritholtz, Ron Paul, and other guys like that have been talking about it for several years and definitely deserve the credit for knowing it would happen and be this bad. So if your friend or co-worker knew it would happen and be this bad and you remember it, then let 'em gloat.
JensensalphaMale Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > “OK, so I screwed up the basketball thing.” > > You were just early JDV. That is going to happen > this season. You know what the difference is between being early and being wrong on Wall St.? Ans: Nothing.
http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=EoB4BS7CGAw Peter Schiff. Note the other bobbleheads on Fox giggle and laugh and mock Schiff. this is from 2006.
pinkman - i suggest u shut your pie hole with such baseless an generalized statements. Yes, there are people here that saw this coming. Misery loves company? Re: The Markets >Posted by: cfa_gremlin (IP Logged) [hide posts from this user] >Date: January 21, 2008 02:42PM >“I know I just predicted some fed intervention on Friday, which didn’t come though. But I still >think it is possible to see the fed do something.” >And tell me, what can the Fed do? Did you listen to Bernanke last week? Anybody that listened >to him carefully got the sense that he knows he can’t do anything to fix the present situation >of financial system de-leveraging and the falling velocity of money. I think he hinted at the “D” >word and I’m not talking about Depression. He can’t do squat here. >Hell, they cut the FFR 100bps already and the S&P500 is down 13.3% since the initial 50bps >cut. What can the Fed do? NOTHING. >S&P Feb Futures down 4.5%…BOOM >75bps cut: Deflation or Inflation? >Posted by: cfa_gremlin (IP Logged) [hide posts from this user] >Date: January 27, 2008 03:24PM >First off, I’m a bear on the stock market and the economy, and my reaction to the 75bps cut >was that there was and continues to be a massive drop in commercial credit demand. With all >these defaults we are seeing destruction of money (because after all money is credit and credit >is money) and the unwillingness of various financial institutions to lend out money to each >other is resulting in a sharp deceleration of the money supply. Reading this you can get the >sense that I’m in the deflation camp albeit we can have some inflationary pressures evolve in >the short-term (look at gold that just printed a 9 handle) I don’t think that the market has >come to realize what the consequences are from the popping of the biggest credit bubble in >history. IMO, we are in the early stages of the credit cycle reseting itself. As a result, I foresee >the FFR at zero, the dollar rallying against ALL currencies (as most credit is denominated in >dollars), and stock markets in disarray. Some evidence points to the deflation theory coming to >bloom such as the 10yr UST only being 6bps lower than it was before the 75bps emergency >cut. >Remember, the Fed doesn’t set interest rates, it merely follows the market, and the market is >telling the Fed that credit is being destroyed at an alarming rate. Don’t be surprised if the Fed >cuts another 50bps this coming Wednesday.
Well here is the crux of the issue. I think many people had a “feeling” bad things would happen. And then when they do they look back on it with certaintly. For example I saw back in late 2006 mortgage bonds shortfalling and thought, well that’s no good. Then I caught myself in conversation saying, “I saw bad things starting back in 2006.” Just being honest. ThePinkMan is not perfect.
wow a post that starts with: " i suggest u shut your pie hole with such baseless an generalized statements" and ends with " i suggest u shut your pie hole with such generalized statements" That’s pretty harsh…
Just read your post Gremlin. Predicting calamity back in Jan 2008 doesn’t require a cystal ball. So stop patting yourself on the back and proving my point.
“Just read your post Gremlin. Predicting calamity back in Jan 2008 doesn’t require a cystal ball. So stop patting yourself on the back and proving my point.” That’s why your post is today not back in Jan2008? No proof to your point. I saw this bear market coming in May 2006 when I first started paying attention to the state of the housing market. I simply wasn’t posting on this board so I can’t provide the evidence. I do admit that I didn’t see the pace at which the fundamentals of our economy and the global economy are deteriorating.
No there are definitely those who knew. There are managers nationally who’ve been shorting this s _ _ _ out of this whole mess and who have profited handsomely. Willy Ps - Anyone catch McCain using Churchill’s “…end of the beginning” line?