In case you don’t know how we all know you don’t read threads before trolling, it’s the copy and paste, lack of insightful specificity. You really need to up your game kid, you’ve been told this by multiple forum members, can’t teach an old dog new tricks I guess.
We’ll just take your word for it, since your posts contain zero substance, and thus no evidence of comprehension. So, now you are guilty of reading, yet contributing nothing but witless noise.
Well, I’ve posted this many places so feel free to search, but I’m too busy to dig them up right now. Reading comprehension is lacking on this forum.
In summary, many on this forum are picking up pennies under an anvil because of spoon feeding that picking up pennies is the important thing (hint: it isn’t ). You did astutely diagnose the “corporate AI” problem, as you call it, but then you simply used the insight incorrectly. Given even a rudimentary understanding of probability anyone can tell that the main concerns are bolides, to begin with. If this does not concern you, then just keep drinking the corporate koolaid: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009%20ES;orb=1
^ Okay, we are back to “wiped out by an asteroid”.
I’m fine with that, but I would widen it to “wiped out by environmental change”, when you take into account all types, then you’ve got a pretty fat probability, over some time frame (calculated for say 10k, 100k, 1M years).
Close, if you study the probabilities the bolides and impactors are the chief concern. Other “environmental change” scenarios pale in comparison of both probability and magnitude. It is not a question of if another civilization ending asteroid event will happen, but when. When it occurs, the asteroid will blast through the atmosphere and crash into the Earth in less than a second. It will instantaneously vaporize and convert to a ball of fire that will burn at 60,000 degrees Kelvin, 10x as hot as the surface of the sun. If it’s a similarly large asteroid (6 miles or so across) and impacts land, 200,000 cubic km of earth will rush into the atmosphere while thermal radiation burns the cities and forests. Shortly later, the Earth will experience seismic activity beyond anything seen in human history. Then, an extended night of cosmic winter .
If it hits the oceans, superheated water would be thrust into the atmosphere, sending out a ring of water 3 miles high to smash against all of the continents. And, we still get unprecedented volcanic activity and eternal winter.
The probability of this happening is surprisingly high, especially when taking into account the unknowns. 2009 ES was not even detected (by the Chinese) until it was far too late and thankfully it drifted by at 18 times the distance between the Earth and the moon . So, when you say “other environmental changes” are of concern, you are not outright wrong, but you are suffering a flaw in analysis .
I would think you could put probabilities on catastrophic asteroid impacts. Difficult to put probabilities of catastrophic environmental change, and even more difficult when human actions drive it. Therefore hard to say probability of life-ending asteroids greater than life-ending environmental change.
Meh, while normally a fan of chaos, because I am most deadly during these market times…I don’t really like this topic because I can not “short Earth”, and collect my gains.
i’m sure uncle sam has been tirelessly working on a solution in the shadows for decades now. have no fear. Those trillions of missing $ are going somewhere. I bet NEOs get a piece of the action.
That is one of the things leading to your flawed analysis: your focus on $$ and drinking the koolaid . Astrophysicists calculate, incorrectly based on limited knowledge, the odds of a civilization ending asteroid impacting the Earth’s surface during any given person’s lifetime as 1:10,000. These are the same odds as dying in a auto accident in the next six months. Or, based on current actuarial timetables, living to 100 with your spouse. True odds are higher.
Asked this in another thread, but what do you think the timeframe would be if astrophysicists saw an Earth-ending asteroid en route? I.E. could we be told tomorrow that we have 1 year to live? Or would the government not even tell us (most probable case IMO)? And if they wouldn’t tell us, then we could be hit by an asteroid and be blown to smithereens ANY DAY NOW!!!
Another analytical error ! Brew some tea, wake up and let’s try this one more time. If you read the whole sentence, it clearly states that the estimates are low because they don’t know what is out there. This is evidenced by revelations about “near misses” discovered mere days before they pass us. In an average year this big spinning rock we ride intersects the orbits of some 20,000,000 asteroids, over a thousand of which are more than half a mile in diameter. We are not aware of most of them. Here is how many they discover a year:
Have fun with your biases and keep mailing that analysis in !