Unemployment at 3.7%. close to a 50 year low. Last time it was like this was 1970!

[Iprofit4sure]

@Matt_Likes_Analysis

@Iprofit4sure

@Michael_A_Ball

Housing prices will be a new talking point if the seasonal downtrend we are in persists — we have had many trends like this one before, and they are only seasonal. This one is a little unusual due to the low volatility in the trend. Check existing home sales. The problem is that rates will shock the housing market; I hope the Fed slow down their projections.

If inflation doesn’t start to run away and real GDP projections fail to meet reality then I think the Fed will for sure back off. LTVs across the board for the US are still no where near where they were right before the housing crash so I think we would need to see quite the drop in values across the board since people are shying away now from taking out new mortgage debt. As always, we will see…

house prices are undervalued in most US cities relative to interest rates. it is not alarming at all that home prices are 1-2 standard deviations from the mean when mortgage rates are half the historical average and institutions are pouring billions into residential property. the only way you can say house prices are overvalued is if you use a 8-10% long-term mortgage rate assumption. even places like toronto and sydney don’t look incredibly overvalued when taking interest rates into consideration. programs to reign in home ownership at the household level (as has occurred in Canada and Australia) will only fuel institutional ownership and in turn boost overall market stability while increasing income inequality further.

To go even further though, house prices are only a sliver of the big picture anyway. The percentage of mortgages that have higher spreads over the prime lending rate are more telling since they include implicitly all that’s been discussed above in terms of credit risk. Statistically and historically speaking, that metric predicts mortgage default risk most accurately.

[igor555]

@Matt_Likes_Analysis

@igor555

yo PA do is it time to add to ASHR or wait?

burrrrrrrrrrrn!

srs question

[Sweep_the_Leg]

@Iprofit4sure

@Sweep_the_Leg

^While wage growth is below the historical average of 6.22% (from 1960-2018 {so you have to account for the massive inflationary period in the late '70s}), wages are rising at a clip of about 4.80%. That’s not too shabby.

And, in my experience, firms do pay up…if they want you.

Whoa wait a second, the touted wage growth of 2.8 percent in the past year and a half is flat when taking in account for inflation. Not sure what time period you are looking at to suggest “real wages” have grown at 4.8 percent…

Wages grew at 4.79% (I rounded up) in Aug. 2018 compared to Aug. 2017 according to the site below (which cites the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

Admittedly, that was the first site that popped up on Google so I just used that at the time. Looking a little closer, I realize that I’ve never heard of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (it is an actual thing…a part of the Dept of Commerce) and they don’t collect the data anyway. That falls to the Bureau of Labor Statistics which confirms that real wages haven’t really gone anywhere since the '70s. Here their info of monthly real wage growth over the last year - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf.

My bad for posting incorrect info. Not surprising that two government bureaus can’t get their fact straight though.

[Flashback]

1970 - Nixon era. 2018 - Trump era. Unemployment bottomed both times. Is this a Tell?

Next stage is a stagflation if the historical pattern would repeat.

[Iprofit4sure]

@Sweep_the_Leg

@Iprofit4sure

@Sweep_the_Leg

^While wage growth is below the historical average of 6.22% (from 1960-2018 {so you have to account for the massive inflationary period in the late '70s}), wages are rising at a clip of about 4.80%. That’s not too shabby.

And, in my experience, firms do pay up…if they want you.

Whoa wait a second, the touted wage growth of 2.8 percent in the past year and a half is flat when taking in account for inflation. Not sure what time period you are looking at to suggest “real wages” have grown at 4.8 percent…

Wages grew at 4.79% (I rounded up) in Aug. 2018 compared to Aug. 2017 according to the site below (which cites the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

Admittedly, that was the first site that popped up on Google so I just used that at the time. Looking a little closer, I realize that I’ve never heard of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (it is an actual thing…a part of the Dept of Commerce) and they don’t collect the data anyway. That falls to the Bureau of Labor Statistics which confirms that real wages haven’t really gone anywhere since the '70s. Here their info of monthly real wage growth over the last year - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf.

My bad for posting incorrect info. Not surprising that two government bureaus can’t get their fact straight though.

No worries, I think that obviously if someone has the necessary skills they can find a well paying job. However, it just isn’t as easy as the media portrays it to be and it ends up giving the public a false sense of reality in regards to the current state of the labor market. .

[GorillaNerd]

@Flashback

1970 - Nixon era. 2018 - Trump era. Unemployment bottomed both times. Is this a Tell?

Next stage is a stagflation if the historical pattern would repeat.

yep. i think teh bull market of late 1960 is where we are right now, and the 1970 is a real thing to watch out for. which is why i got into learning about real estate. imo if inflation skyrockets, id want to have a ton of fixed debt at a low rate, and an asset that will hopefully increase its earnings as fast as inflation.

just looking at the level of debt we have in a dollar denominated world, with a growing lack of fucks on opp, we should try to inflate our money and make our dollars worth less.

there was a piece on wsj, that noted that foreign ownership of us 15t treasury debt has fallen significantly, from 50% in 2013, to around 40% today! imo they are doing the right thing! us needs to start raising taxes, and cutting benefits. BRING on the austerity!

[Iprofit4sure]

@Nerdyblop

@Flashback

1970 - Nixon era. 2018 - Trump era. Unemployment bottomed both times. Is this a Tell?

Next stage is a stagflation if the historical pattern would repeat.

yep. i think teh bull market of late 1960 is where we are right now, and the 1970 is a real thing to watch out for. which is why i got into learning about real estate. imo if inflation skyrockets, id want to have a ton of fixed debt at a low rate, and an asset that will hopefully increase its earnings as fast as inflation.

just looking at the level of debt we have in a dollar denominated world, with a growing lack of fucks on opp, we should try to inflate our money and make our dollars worth less.

there was a piece on wsj, that noted that foreign ownership of us 15t treasury debt has fallen significantly, from 50% in 2013, to around 40% today! imo they are doing the right thing! us needs to start raising taxes, and cutting benefits. BRING on the austerity!

This is true. Additionally, for the first time in like 20 years, the net foreign purchases of US Debt turned negative recently. Where is the inflation going to come from though is what I ponder? Most fixed income/economists I read think even 2% expected is going to be aggressive.

[system]

@igor555

yo PA do is it time to add to ASHR or wait?

Well ASHR is the winning bet this century.

We now see America’s admission that they are finished, they are panicking, the end is near. BUT, there could be WWIII between now and CN being the new global power. Gotta keep some ammo free for the global collapse. Defense, then offense.