US Trade War!!! Who wins?

Blah blah blah, fact is West has always had better tech and more wealth over the past 1000 years. East had gun powder and silk. Big whoop, west still took HK without batting an eye and colonized half the region.

I’m glad things are improving in the east, but it’s still all copy cat attempts and retrofitted 1970’s Russian ships.

Trade war sets China’s clock to zero, US’s to 1960.

The youth in the east literally do the same sh*t. I’ve been there, my brother’s wife is Jakarta raised Chinese. I’ve spent enough time in their social circles over there to know they party as hard if not harder.

A few guys making 120k a year as conduits now means nothing about the role of knowing Mandarin in 20 years (his kids are under 6) and I know factually the demand for those roles is shrinking with the rise of US educated Chinese. It’s a skill-set with vanishing structural value.

Nice talk though, lets do this again sometime when China’s per capita GDP is better than Iraq’s.

Well yes, the past 500 years have been led by Western innovation. The innovation for the past 1500 has come from other parts of the world. NASA could never have gone to the moon without the base of math, astronomy etc set up by Egyptians, Persians, Indians or learning from the mistakes of the Russians. Given the emphasis China places on science it is foolish to think that they will not start innovating eventually.

Correct. The West stole all that money. Dem nasty raping thieves. Now at the first sign of real competition and no false support structures the West is crumbling and resorting to crude forms of nationalism and hints of fascism.

Yes, your insight from a sample size that is drawn from one particular demographic is particularly robust. Walk into a nightclub in Jakarta ask for coke and see how it goes. London and Sydney? Lol, the next q will be how many grams giving you something spiked with washing powder cause the demand is so high from coked up teenagers, uni students and working professionals.

Ummmmm…

Well, I’ve seen coke scored in Jakarta in and around clubs (as stupid as I thought it was for people to do that), so there’s that. I’ve also smoked weed in Kuwait (20 year sentence) and Egypt. The reality is despite the broadcast justice systems in each case, they’re rarely enforced and human nature endures. Also, laws are VERY unevely enforced depending on socio economic class. But you’re right, Asia did well in antiquity, now what was it you were saying about someone living in the past again?

You do realize that China’s per capita GDP is still lower than Iraq’s right after your victory laps? Not sure what there is to ummmm about.

Anyhow, my points are pretty simple.

  1. In a trade war, the country whose growth and economy are export driven will ultimately suffer the most. Particularly when that country carries a high level of debt for an emerging economy and has a per capita GDP lower than active third world war zones.

  2. The Chinese education system is great for a developing country, but I don’t think it’s been proven superior in effective output beyond gaming exams to any major developed nation.

  3. China will likely be great, but size has historically been inversely related to the ultimate economic success of nations measured on a per capita basis. People have been so caught up on a percentage driven growth story from a third world baseline they often lose sight of the fact that it’s still a tenuously balanced economy with lopsided infrastructure development within its borders and a very low per capita GDP. The simple point being that it’s still a long row to hoe.

Also, it was fun watching you dance around mentioning Greece and the dawn of western civilization around 500 BC.

Brah I know alternative facts are all the rage in the states these days but i think the bar is a little bit higher elsewhere. In none of the three sources is this backed up (IMF, World Bank or UN)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Yes it is now because it is more beneficial for them. It won’t be like this forever.

Per capita gdp tells but one story. while that metric may take the emerging world another 100 years to catch up with the developed world they will create a base that is larger than any other country in absolute terms with equal spending power much faster and that my friend will be the tipping point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Depends on how you calculate it. IMF and Worldbank both list Iraq ahead of China on PPP basis. Relative wealth comparison bruh. enlightened

See CFA Level 1: Reading 7 How to Economics

But even using your metric I can make the same point as both IMF and Worldbank place China below the world average and trailing such booming powerhouses as Kazakhstan and Romania. Impressive.

No shit, but I was responding to an earlier claim that the Chinese educational system was superior to that of Western countries by simply saying it’s really not proven superior all else equal. You’re basically agreeing with me after all the feigned outrage because you chose to hear what you wanted to hear.

Anyhow, any first year analyst knows per capita is the only metric that matters. Achieving equal GDP with 3x the population and that much infrastructure to develop is silly. It doesn’t mean anything beyond arbitrary discussions. Ask anybody in Luxembourg if they’d rather live in Guatemala or if they envy the Kenyan economy. It’s so laughably stupid.

It’s not ‘equal’ GDP. According to your own recommended PPP China is already ahead of the USA by a solid three trillion and this gap is going to widen. When China provides a base for larger disposable income on an absolute basis no country in the world is going to give a crap that America is richer per capita so good luck coming out on top in that trade war. It is also inevitable that Asia-Pacific comes under Chinese influence so theres that as well.

Luxembourg has managed itself well. Would you rather earn 40 k in USA and live in a ten square foot roach infested apartment or earn 20 k in China? Not so simple anymore…

Well we’ll agree to disagree then. Personally I prefer the US at $40k, air pollution sucks in Beijing and having been there and seeing what people get for $20k, it’s not very great particularly given the lopsided concentration of wealth.

Clearly you love China, I’ve spent enough time in both places (I get the impression you’ve never been here) to know I’d never want to live there. I also know factually that things like per capita GDP and export dependency are a big deal in trade conflicts.

Ha the math Olympiad was finally won by America but it was all Chinese Americans . Have you heard ivankas daughter recite Chinese poems? I bet your bros kids are in that level bs.

You mad bro?

Watching you and BS go is fun. I’d lean BS, but you do make some good points Luffy. That said, the above is definitely not one of them. Plenty of drugs going around in the East (yes, even excluding the expats). Just go to Seoul, Tokyo, HK, Shanghai, Mumbai, etc… Once you start to see material wealth, the youth in the East start to duplicate those in the West. Those that sell drugs will have new markets and many kids find it fun (regardless of nationality or race). Your argument is just dumb.

Also, technology and better government structures have been ripped over many civilizations time and time again. Who cares. All we should care about is the ongoing progress of the entire human race. I welcome a rising East, though would certainly prefer, a peaceful one. I believe most in the West actually feel this way despite recent nationalistic tones.

buffett’s letter came out. so i’ve been reading a few of his ideas. caught on surprising to this pro protectionist article from him:

http://fortune.com/2016/04/29/warren-buffett-foreign-trade/

also ge letter that is somewhat pro free trade:

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3246747-u-s-diverging-world-trade-leader-ges-immelt-warns

Good Buffet article there. His warning reminds me of Eisenhower’s 1961 farewell speech.

a good nugget from it… “Another factor in maintaining balance involves the element of time. As we peer into society’s future, we – you and I, and our government – must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering for, for our own ease and convenience, the precious resources of tomorrow. We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without asking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage. We want democracy to survive for all generations to come, not to become the insolvent phantom of tomorrow”

A poignant commentary on the future if you ask me. Especially his bit about the military industrial complex. Ironically in the news today is Trump’s announcement of more military spending.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-28/ryan-said-to-forge-unexpected-alliance-with-bannon-on-border-tax

The proposed border-adjustment plan would tax U.S. companies’ domestic sales and imports at a new 20 percent rate, while exempting their exports. The change – which would replace the existing 35 percent tax on companies’ global income – would encourage companies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and reverse the tide of corporate tax inversions, Ryan says.