Is this another one of those things where you pretend to know about something and then come out being completely wrong and ultimately wind up excusing it with nursery rhymes?
is this another one of those times where you make everything about the one successful trade you’ve made in your life? you’re like a walking talking amateur trader stereotype. well, i can’t be certain that you walk. gawking talking maybe.
i don’t see how me being wrong in the middle of the time horizon (it was a 1 year call after all) on a single trade in an industry that i profited massively on over the past 5 years makes me persistently wrong. i just didn’t like that trade. if i recall correctly, we weren’t exactly betting on a near European banking crisis and massive short-term flight-to-safety as a catalyst for the current spike in gold prices/equities. it’s not like you actually knew what you were doing, or you would’ve called it as it happened or your would’ve made much more by saving 6 months of time premium and buying shorter term options.
i’ve been short base metals for almost 4 years and neutral to short oil for 15 months. trust me. i’ve made far more than you in the past 4 years.
this battle is making me bored because you’re simply boring.
those calls are time stamped. go find them yourself. clearly you haven’t been paying attention to the knowledge i’ve been bestowing upon this forum or you’d be a richer man and wouldn’t have to perpetually brag about what is very likely a small trade. i doubt you threw a large percentage of your wealth at a OTM option with a strike that was 100% above the current price.
I bought BTE at $20 mid last year thinking “how low can oil REALLY go?”, they had 40% of 2016 production hedged at $80, lots of room on their facility…
Not sure if this was my worst trade, as I didn’t have much money to invest at the time…
My first trade ever was in the summer of 2007. Bought Bally Total Fitness stock the week before they filed for bankruptcy. I had no idea what a balance sheet was back then…obviously.
i don’t think there is. the difference between a bad and good trade is on display in the P&L. there are differing degrees of luck involved in all trades but that is it. i wouldn’t call it a distinction per se.
Wholeheartedly disagree. A trade is all about the handicap. Picking eleven at the roulette table and winning does not mean you made a good decision. The problem with investing is that the odds can never be definitively determined before or after the trade takes place. Only the result is known for sure. That is not enough to make an evaluation. The longer the record, the more likely the results are from good handicapping and not blind ass luck. But the actual number of iterations is still very low for most people’s career, so a determination of skill is still going to be suspect.
And large leverage does not necessarily make something a bad trade. Taking a large position in such an asset probably means your money management is poor, but, as far as expected return, it may still have been a good bet.
Wow, what a coincidence. I bought some today. But I feel your pain. I bought some BTU bonds in the low thirties, basis a little lower now. They trade around six or seven today flat.
my argument that initiating a losing trade is still a bad trade. it doesn’t matter how bad, a loser is a loser. you could’ve picked a winner. the luck aspect only has to do with the degree of success or degree of failure. good and bad is determined by profit or loss. you’re not going to say “i made an awesome trade, i only lost $1 million” and vice versa.