…S&P futures 1930 and dropping… WTI 39.40!!!
Someone has to say it: No one really cares about China, it’s a side show at best.
The reality is the US market has been thinning out for all of 2015 with narrower and narrower participation. The stuff that is participating is either large cap tech or unownable garbage within small caps.
Screw China, it’s that the US market is vastly overvalued, stupid crap has gone on way too long, and people were waiting for the music to stop. It just stopped. It’s about damn time.
Flat this month vs. -6.5% for the Russell. In this market it’s low net or GTFO.
I hope we’re down 30% by the end of the year, though I doubt it will happen.
I agree, bromion… a market priced for growth can’t go on with no growth to fuel it. Shake this market down!! (Maybe not 30%!) Get it over with… better than living in fear of it. I would have been more worried about a rally Monday morning. What, was China going to have 7% growth forever? I may be yet naive on global economics, but is this not a natural phase for China to enter?.. are these not appropriate adjustments in various markets for that shift?
not cool, not cool at all lol
It won’t happen. If the market continues to tank some clown from the Fed will get on TV and talk about not raising interest rates and/or QE 4(ever), which would send everything rocketing back upward.
Wow RUT futures down about 3% now. PUUUUUUUUUUUUUKE. Throw it up boys, I love buying going concern businesses at 2009 prices.
AHHHHHHHH! More QE! (However, it would be worth it to see Santelli melt down in epic proportion. HA!)
Agree, prices have been going up while earnings have been going down, sending valuations higher (tech valuations are just stupid), GDP is basically 0% only 2% because of USG stimulus, and people just ignore the facts. So finally some reality!
Also agree it won’t go down as far as it should because – no rate increase, QE4, Yellen pep talk, capital moving to “safety” in the US, etc.
Bloodbath in Shanghai, indiscriminate limit down on everything. Seeing totally stupid mispricings, not that anyone is in the game, but my A-share picks are as follows, so when I make 2X return you guys can’t say I didn’t call it…
Saic Motors - solid financials, good mgmt, partnership with GM, auto demand should be decent going forward, 5.9X trailing P/E and 8.6% current yield.
Fuyao Glass - more auto industry, 9.9X P/E, 6.6% yield.
ICBC - banking, solid US ratings, solid financials, too big to fail, 5.4X P/E, 6.3% yield.
QingDao Haier - they make appliances, 10.9X P/E, 5.2% yield.
Nomura Holdings today agreeing with my auto and ICBC pics, though they prefer the lower yielding Great Wall Motor. The problem as always is that the CN retail investors do not look at fundamentals, so they do not know nor care about these “mispricings”…thus nothing to correct them on the horizon. Only thing that might help is that CN pension funds can now buy, and they will buy the good stuff. Anyhow, I collect the yield while I wait for the investor base to change/mature.
Seems like a big hissy fit to throw just to avoid a 1/4% interest rate hike…
More seriously, while I think a QE 4ever program might be announced, I’m not sure it will have any effect on prices to keep everything going up. The best I can see is to slow the fall.
On the one hand, we don’t have the subprime crisis of 2008, so the collapse is unlikely to be as dramatic as then. On the other hand, it’s not as though employment is exceptionally recovered and strong (it’s stronger than its been, but hardly 2006-2007 style), so we’re not equipped to handle the recession that generally comes after large market tanks like this.
From a strictly markets point of view, it’s a needed adjustment that will eventually make me feel better about putting capital to work, but it’s going to be pretty crappy for everyon whose not a smart short-seller for a while.
Bromion, what are your picks?
Long or short?
My largest longs are VVI and TAST
My largest shorts are FOSL and CRMD
Keep in mind I am happy to hold these for several years and all of these are <=1-2% positions. CRMD is already down a lot and I would not recommend it here. I run over 150 stocks and am holding a good amount of cash.
What do you like?
haha yea sorry about that. did not mean it in that manner. in all fairness. i think china is a good buy at this point.
This badboy actually declined to an absurd 9% yield the day following my above post. Stock has now bounced +18% with the rate cut and news they are making auto loans easeir to get. Totally wacko volatility, my account value is all over the freakin’ place.
Anyhow, Asia raging upward in the AM session, looks like global markets might end the week happy…
At the start of the week I put my personal account in 3X long S&P (shoulda gone nasdaq, but whatever) and a portion in 3X long Hang Seng FTSE 50 through direxion. It’s been working out pretty good.
ICBC up 28% in a week, not bragging though… 
You selling Monday or holding for long game?
Oh I’m buy and hold at Shanghai Composite = 3000 levels. The problem is, this is my third time saying “I’m in it for the next 10+ years”, but the last two times I sold after 6 months because the returns were just to good to be real.
On ICBC, that bounce was unreal. Limit up on Wed so I sold at close (probably the forced-buying brokers were bargain hunting and saw the same yield plays I saw). Holding everything else. Just wanted to free up a little cash in case this government-directed support does not hold, I’ll buy it back cheaper.
Some probability we get a “double tap” where stocks touch previous lows or go even a bit lower, but I think we are almost bottom.
ASHR still a strong buy n hold?