This is probably the reason why your views significantly differ from mine and that of purealpha. MT/LT I may agree with you but in ST - I don’t care about who is right. I don’t invest, I trade. I go wherever the group is headed and change directions when I see signs - by signs I mean an actual downtick (and a strong one at that).
I have no emotional attachment to my views or that of my firm or even my boss - if I’m right, I celebrate by making the opposite side suffer (in my animated model of the world) and if I’m wrong, I handle it and move on.
I can see why you’re thinking the way you’re thinking and I can actually relate to that type of thinking - but I’ve suffered enough to let my view of an underlying’s intrinsic value cloud my judgement of a trade. I simply refuse to think too much about valuations, analysis, etc etc.
I have never understood all those traders who spend hours reading research reports etc etc - by God’s grace, I’ve done quite well (vs my peers) in the short time that I’ve been trading and it’s probably because I spend more time observing markets/price movements than reading reports written by pseudo academics.
Market is always right - until it isn’t, which is when I run for the exit (without any hesitation).
It’s called knowing what you are talking about, and other people not knowing what they are talking about, and those other people being uncomfortable with your knowledge. LOL. Since I have more knowledge than most people on the planet in a number of very specific areas I run into this often! ---------------------- Today was fun. I sold my A-shares a couple months ago and have been paying little attention as valuations drifted lower…I like massive overreactions before I move. By noon it was clear something was happening so I dropped my project and followed the market. Picked up Siac Motors and Fuyon Glass (these both declined the daily max -10%, great vaulations here). I’ve also been looking to get more ICBC which pays a 5% dividend in a week, in the last 30 minutes it hit -5% so grabbed that too, it already bounced…poised to make huge bank on this one. Finally some real action dammit! None of these sissy 3% moves, now we get the real deal 10% moves baby!! BTW, wouldn’t necessarily buy the dip for those in the states looking at ASHR. When you do that you are getting tons of overvalued junk instead of cherry picking the few solid names with cheap valuations. Also that ASHR thing trades at wild premium/discounts due to clueless Westerners baking in their weird ideas about China (see this thread).
Keep the uninformed sidelines commentary coming, love it!
Well, all I said was back in April that China may play a role in any coming correction.
On June 15 you said no short should be based on fundamentals and that the market still had room to go upwards, that it was not overvalued.
Here we are and it appears to be falling out. You’ve been hyping this index through June saying it isn’t overvalued and the fact of it is, it’s collapsing.
So whether you can weave some tale of completely unverifiable issuer specific gains or not is irrelevant. As we stand from then to now, you were wrong about your predictions. Maybe that will change, there’s still plenty of time and it is completely possible that in a month the Shanghai index will be up 50%. But all I’m saying is that whatever silly nonsense you just posted is completely at odds with the reality of your hyper informed predictions versus the reality that’s occuring.
To eliminate all uncertainty, as we stand, you are the wrong one in this thread.
And if you’ve been beating the market for 10+ years as you claimed on the interwebs and your name isn’t on the Forbes 100 list, you’re not really winning me over here on the credibility side.
To eliminate all uncertainty you have not been right about anything related to China, ever. I have been right about everything. You didn’t read my posts, but instead inserted what you wanted to hear, try rereading because I will not retype.
Also this is 2 for 2 for me. I doubled my money back in 2006-2007, and sold everything Q407. And I heard all the same “bla bla bla” back then from the CFAs in the office…
I cited your own post from the 15th and the thread is right here for people to read. You made no actual clear points and made no defense in your last post so I’ll just assume you’re admitting defeat.
You claimed in June that the Shanghai index was not overvalued. Here we are.
Beyond that whatever non verifiable personal trading results you want to insert into the discussion are irrelevant. But at least you’ve got your billions accrued over 10 years of outperformance to fall back on.
LOL you are such an argumentative little dilldo. My comments were to the people on this thread who didn’t know anything about what was happening in Shanghai “oh I heard it was 25x man, naw I heard it was 250x! dude”. I corrected them, it was 18X-ish, and pointed out that because it had moved from undervalued to fair value, did not mean it was a bubble. And I did not say anyone should buy at those levels, I’m not an idiot. I’m the guy who bought low back in Nov and sold in May. There is no “hyping”, just correcting people who don’t know what they are talking about (you for example).
busted purealpha. it’s true that everything you’ve said in this thread has been supportive of the Chinese market AT ANY PRICE. before the recent crash, you never said, if the market falls 20%, i’ll get interested. you’ve been saying, you’ll be jealous when the multiple goes to 40x!
and its Fuyao Glass btw. you’d come off as more trustworthy if you knew the names of the companies you were investing in.
shootforthtestars - das a really good quote. i actually juss stumbled on a similar quote in one of my readings.
“The public is right during the trends but wrong at both ends”. true, but useless comments really and juss a nice play of words (cuz it rhymes)
as far as china goes. there are legendary people on alpha’s side of the trade. druckenmiller is a huge fan of china. he went as far as saying that confidence builds more confidence and leads to higher markets. for the most part what he says is true until it pops. so the question is, is it popping? i dont know. but many luminaries have said that the best thing to do is when something looks like a bubble, is to stay away. ie neither buy nor short.
but what you said abotu china is not sum hidden secret. the best thesis about it is the legitimatization of the rmb and other indexes being forced to havce a weighting on the chinese index. i believe the date ur anticipating is nov 2015. anyways, ur a lil overconfident, but i guess every good analyst typically is. haha
^ no purealpha. just stop saying there is “value” in the market. be honest and say you’re speculating in a casino like every other retail chinese investor. if you make money that way awesome, but at least you know the risks.
Yeah, PA never mentioned the potential that things could get fully valued so anyhoo, I’m just gonna laugh at this one and move on. I got no skin in the game.
Oh my, date stamped posts on my entering and exiting A-shares! Read it and weep douche bags. Hahaha…for the record I’m back in now, not indescriminetly, a few select names, for the bounce and dividend. Meanwhile Blackswan was asleep at the wheel again, probably 90% S&P500 right dude?
Dec 20th, 2014 PureAlpha buys up China…
“It was the best performing region, and there’s a fair chance it will do the same next year.”
@the topic of this thread - in europe, it’s happening now
Midnight here in london and sipping my coffee with colleagues in the office - futures tanking as asia opens. It’s going to be a fun week trading around greece, china and over-reaction in US.
My god the world’s such an interesting place right now - if only I could go without sleep
and your name isn’t on the Forbes 100 list, you’re not really winning me over here on the credibility side.