When is the sky going to fall?

Nothing new, I’ve been on AF for a decade posting my winning moves, all time-stamped kids. cool

But this one goes down as my all time largest return/time move. Can’t really be beat in Shanghai due to the 10% daily cap, I’d have to bet on penny stocks to get a larger bump, and even then getting it in 10 minutes would be hard. New high score!

I dunno, kind of seems like all the guys that called bubble in early June have some reason to pat themselves on the back too. You know, given the whole 30% drop and all…

Naw, people were calling the China bubble ALL of 2015 and even back into 2014 (while I was making money long), so they basically went bankrupt on their shorts before the bubble finally popped. Except they never actually had money on it, just talking on the internet.

These threads are great, the sky does eventually fall, but you gotta have big balls and make the trades.

I only remember seeing it discussed with me as a contributor right here which was purely since the end of April. It was a great call. A lot of people in the bubble refused to see it…

I feel like a total idiot saying this but wasn’t it obvious that state backed companies like ICBC, etc would jump after the weekend announcement? I doubt any of the small/mid cap companies were bought…

^check out some of the small-cap ETFs trading here in the US. Crushed again

Does anyone have an trading idea for China that does not include heavy financial/technology exposure? Everything I find is >60% technology/financial which i’d like to avoid.

CXSE seems to be my only option but there is just about no liquidity in this thing and might be a touch too conservative.

But you also admitted earlier that you had no skin in the game, so it doesn’t count. :wink:

Well, it’s been obvious all year that large-caps were the place to be, but the majority of investors avoided them (now many are stuck holding random garbage with insane valuations). Sure, it was obvious after the weekend announcement, but it was too late to get in, since the index opened +7% on Monday. What I can’t understand is why these knuckleheads were selling big caps like crazy Friday PM. We know big news will come over the weekend, and we know it will favor the biggie caps. This has been the govt behavior all year. LOL, also when I am selling at a +9.5% gain in Monday premarket, who is the idiot buying??? I mean it can only go up a limit of 10%, and we had all day in front of us still. Obviously it won’t remain pegged at +9.9% all day? One of the names I flipped went down like -8% during the day. Seriously, these people just don’t think.

That’s hard, I think no. The A50 (HK ticker 2822) is actually holding together nicely. We are on day 6, everyone else taking damage, A50 “stabilized” (lots of volatility but flat). I would be temped to buy except the top ten holdings are ALL financials. Not that financials are bad, they are great, agree tech is bad. But I’d rather have an ETF that has the biggest from each industry equally represented (ICBC, Saic, Kweichow Moutai, Petrochina, China State Construction, Baoshan Steel, China United, Yangtze Power). So normally I just buy individual names thru the SH/HK link.

Oh, trading HALT on (some of) the crappy Chinese small/tech stocks (ChiNext)!!!

BTW, these trade on the Shenzhen exchange, which isn’t open to foreigners yet (not like we care). The good stuff is mostly on the Shanghai exchange. Although I just logged in, and some of the tech names in Shanghai are also halted. Anyone want to buy Yonyou Network Tech, which has dropped 50% in a month, and is still at 121X?

Wow, those people are screwed. crying

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-07-07/chinese-small-caps-are-biggest-losers-in-stock-rout

Any thoughts on Shandong Weigao? Seems like single use medical should be pretty resilient in this market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?ticker=1066:HK

^ Been looking at Hong Kong the last couple days (it has really come down), but I don’t really see anything interesting in the Hang Seng (Tencent are good, but still expensive). Don’t know Shandong, perhaps that’s an H-share…I really only follow A-shares.

phew, this is getting nuts quickly.

Greece contagion spreading?

Small-cap chinese stocks getting distroyed, more to come?

Commodities imploding - Chinese copper carry trade unwinding?

Can’t wait to FINALLY put my cash balance to work. Been almost a year and half!!

china is really in trouble, got some cash to burn, like G said still waiting though

dividend heavy too

Well, Goldman (specifically Mr. Kringer Lau, CFA…the demigod like dude who nailed it back in mid 2014) are sticking to their guns. Basically “big picture, no big deal man”. Most of the comments we are seeing in the English speaking press are by people who have no clue what they are talking about, so I do place more weight on Lau’s forecast…

* Unprecedented government efforts.

* Continued monetary easying.

* Leverage not big enough to trigger a collapse.

* Avg valuations only 17X vs 40X in the 2007.

* Pockets of over-valuation exist, broader market fine.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/goldman-sachs-says-there-s-no-china-stock-bubble-sees-27-rally

^ With all respect to Mr. Lau, that attitude sounds like a trader who’s stuck.

Irrationality will drive this index cheaper, just hope I can finish my analysis before it blows its bottom out

It’s not “an attitude” though, it’s a long-term forecast built on an understanding of the facts (which has been correct so far).

Make sure you compare your analysis with his and can explain any differences, the dude is sharp and already did a lot of the leg work for us…

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/trends-in-our-business/stock-connect/report.pdf

goldman wants the market bit higher before shorting the sh*t out of it

What surprises me amongst all this (Greece, China, Puerto Rico, etc) is that Gold is still dead - absolutely no buying whatsoever.

Pretty sure they would have already done that (the rumor was they had market moving shorts, but that was not proven by securities regulators).

These aren’t the guys who are always lagging behind. They bought when everyone was clueless, they sold before people knew what was happening, and now they are talking long again.