ValueAddict Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Ah great firm So have any diamonds in the rough there Mr. “I don’t have a view”? 
Are you guys flirting?
storko Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Are you guys flirting? Are you interested?
Are you a dude?
Are you a dude? I like PARL - liquidation play.
I’m a dude. If Lanikai is a dude I’m totally out.
Have you identified a pricing anomaly? Then how about shorting the market? Lanikai Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Have been debating moving to cash the past few > days. Several reasons: > > 1. Market is up roughly 45% the past year, I don’t > know what will drive markets upwards once stimulus > starts to wane. > > 2. Housing credit will expire soon, more resets, > more foreclosures, and more mayhem in the housing > market > > 3. Unemployment will likely creep upwards (if at > all), no optimism coming from the consmuers > > 4. Companies are as lean as they can be, margins > will not improve from where they are now once > hiring and re-investment in capital picks up. This > should hamper earnings growth. > > 5. Sovereign mess in Europe and Japan, Deficits as > a percentage of GDP are getting out of hand. > Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, 'nuff said. > > 6. Interviewed recently with a $15B money manager > who had simmillar thoughts on short term prospects > for the equity markets > > > I agree timing the market is tough, and you have > to know when to get back in, but just curious if > anyone else here agrees?
I am a bro, dudes
I am with Storko
alright… awkward…ok… you guys want to go hunting and drink beer or something?
Goin to jay z concert in 45 mins sons!!
short oil
Long 30 year Treasury for the next week
Long 30 year Treasury for the next week
If this is your retirement account and you are 24, I would suggest leaving the money sit in a global equity fund for the next 30 years and then come back and think about it. Play around with your PA all you want, but you don’t want to be screwing up your long term savings. Plenty of studies out there to show that people who try to time the market in this way tend to underperform in the long run.
Lanikai - move your positions to cash. You have your 6 investment reasons laid out. 'nuff said.
i agree with Value Addict. To jump to investment conclusions based on macro forecasts is extremely risky. You have to be right about a ton of things and the more variables you have, the least accurate you’re going to be about the result. look at the reasons you have indicated. you might be right about 1 or 2 of them, but if the 3 you’re wrong, you’re done. I am noticing that a lot of the companies i want to buy are expensive but I have been buying lately and all the stuff I have been reading about the macro economy makes little to no difference on my decision. As long as I can be confident my company survives a downturn, i will be ok. we have been brainwashed very well.
Points 3 and 4 contradict each other. 3 states that unemployment will creep up, 4 states that companies are “as lean as they can be” (implying that further job cuts are not practical/possible).
Most of the points can be debated to death. There is some optimism from consumers from what I am reading. and point 6 is completely irrelevant. I know a guy named Warren Buffet who says he doesn’t time markets. nuff said.
Wasn’t sure which message to quote so I’ll just rant for a second Personally I agree with the OP. I’m technically about 50% cash and a number of my other holdings are more special situations which are significantly less tied to the general market (ie: short MIL 105 strike puts [cash takeover MRK], long SSTI [cash takeover, think forced to raise bid due to PE firm interest]), covered calls, or deep ITM puts on stocks I’d want to own at my price. Fundamentals are very concerning. Government is propping housing market because it is its biggest source of revenue. Spending is completely out of control. Education for kids is not improving, and education for adults is too expensive relative to the LT gains. Unemployment is too high and its not improving. Traditional manufacturing is dying in America and that is great for the LT and very difficult to digest in the short term. I think this is one of the most misunderstood parts of the story and the government is weakening the dollar to increase our exports… except as the consumer of the world this doesn’t help. China won’t let their currency appreciate because with 1 billion people they can’t afford to lose jobs. So China stays pegged to the dollar and becomes relatively cheaper than our other “suppliers” who enter a recession and try to weaken their own currency… ok I need to do some work and could go on and on like this in the cycle for a while… but fundamentals are bad - plain and simple. The only seller of corporate america is corporate america - companies are ok to add dilution when it is impossible to create shareholder value vs market expectations. to Value Act: You spoke about being all about LT Cash flow value etc etc. but seemed to completely dismiss the implication that lower intrinsic demand impacts cash earnings. Higher interest rates lower earnings. Higher taxes lower earnings. Higher discount rates lower future earnings. You may believe you are a bottom up investor looking for value… but it seems you have forgotten to go all the way from the bottom to the top… bottom up includes the macro. Bottom up and top down are they same exact thing - its just how long into the research process it takes before you realize you need to kill the idea