Will the Fed raise in December?

Lmao PA really? China had tried to blame anyone and anything for their market tumble this summer. They really seem to be throwing a lot of poo at the wall and hoping something sticks. It HAS to be something else, good forbid growth is ACTUALLY slowing in that country from its incredibly high pace to a slightly lower clip.

Actually it was the US that tried to blame anyone and anything for THEIR OWN issues this Summer, “oh, it’s China and EM that is dragging our economy down, we are awesome internally, but we can’t hold up the world, those other countries need to get with the program and do some desperate QE/ZIRP like we did”. Total nonsense, and CN rightly rejected attempts to twist their arm into QE.

China’s point had nothing to do with making excuses for their own stock market, they were making the point that the US/JP/UK should take a look at themselves, instead of blaming others for the fall in their overpriced equites. Which was a fair point.

You are so biased it’s not even funny… And you claim to be objective - ok kinda funny. I’m gonna start calling you PB (Pure Bias)

That’s only because you are so biased you can’t even comprehend what objectivity looks like (almost all Americans are like that, it’s call patriotism, otherwise known as nationalistic bias). Oh and what I said was factually correct. :stuck_out_tongue:

^you raise valid points PA but I’m suprised you’re not questioning reliability of GAAP “guidelines” when using the ‘E’ in P/E. I’ve seen first had how easily capitalization approaches wildy distort “GAAP” profitability and how much room management when measuring an impairment charge or determining “fair-value”.

You’re right to question the “standard” approach but you’re wildy wrong to take earnings at face value without doing any further analysis.

You’re so biased that you’re blind to your subjectivity (almost all anti-american people are like that, it’s called anti-americanism, also known as anti-american bias). Unless of course you’re trolling as a Colbert-type character, which is a very strong possibility. Also, you can be biased even while siting facts by only posting facts that agree with your narrative, ignoring ones that don’t, spinning facts a certain way, etc.

I don’t disagree with some of your stances, but your agenda is pretty transparent.

i think the name “purealpha” represent’s pa’s understanding of CAPM. nerd burn!

Like I said, I started in accounting and know this very well. But GAAP is less manipulated than the second pair of made up numbers the company issues, and better than any Wall Street analyst made up numbers. In life we have to use the best available, there is no ideal.

I also started in accounting.

I think you’re pivoting to say management reported adjusted non-gaap earnings… Which I agree with you fully on. Maybe that’s what you intended to say all along but it wasn’t clear.

My “agenda” is simple, since almost everyone in “the West” is biased (brainwashed from birth), I provide a big fat counterbalance…a huge dose of objectivity and truth. It’s just a fun hobby. This hobby is separate from investment decision making, in that action I am always cold and logical. I would go levered long the US in a second, if it were the best investment at this point (which it is not).

so market tanking right? lol

I just find it hilarious you are claiming the US is doing something and China is not. In reality they are probably both doing it but I really didnt see the US blaming China at all. They simply said a slowdown in china would hurt US economic growth, which it would. The system is very interconnected as you know. You are incredibly biased against the US, in every post you have some ridiculous comments that make no sense.

Chinas growth is slowing, that impacts the world and world markets. Its not a knock on china at all, its something that happens. The way they handled the rush of everyone to get out of Chinese assets however, was the abomination.

To me, he’s Alphie. You can also call him ALF.

#LikeTheTVshow

Seems like a booming China economy is not compatible with commodity prices in the dump. Are the people selling commodities lying about price and selling low, or is the Chinese government lying about the growth?

The US spun it simutaniously as 1) China’s fault US equities were crashing (never mind the three straight quarters of earnings declines and massive high valuations), yet 2) the US is isolated from China. Seems rather inconsistent? Yes, China says “the US and CN’s fates are joined” because that is reality. But the US denies this, their ego wants to think when something good happens they did it themselves, but when something bad happens someone else did it to them. It’s all rather hilarious, and I like to point this out to the denialists.

China, in a rare example of critizism, lightly pointed out that perhaps equities were crashing because of the West’s central-bank driven bubbles? Too awesome.

I don’t see why? It’s a service sector economy now, and that sector is booming.

PA I have never said the US was completely seperate from China. I think most people with any knowledge are aware the 2 are rather strongly linked as they are huge trading partners and have large amounts of direct foregin investment in each others borders. I never got that impression from the US, so I am not entirely sure where you got that from. It seems to fit your general worldview though, so I am sure that went unquestioned.

^ don’t bother, he doesn’t listen.

Yea I have noticed. He is a purely analytical machine that has zero biases and always makes perfect judgements while everyone else in the market is blinded idiots. I am sure his coworkers love him, seemingly a blast a the holiday party.

Some of these arguments about bias remind me of that kid in every schoolyard who’s reply to any criticism is “I know you are, but what am I?”

I think a sensible approach is an understanding that no one is truly able to extract ourselves from our biases, and that the way to deal with this is to be willing to entertain the possibility that we are wrong on things, particularly on how we fill in the blanks of information we lack or are otherwise unable to retain. Try to argue against your position and - while you are unlikely to abandon it - you at least get a sense of where it is strong and weak.

We generally have a preferred perspective to look at things. But it is key to be able to apply multiple perspectives and see how things look from that angle, because different perspectives often pick up on different processes.

I, for example, look at things through the optic of how technology empowers elites more than everyday people and powers the increased concentration of wealth in the US (globally, to a lesser extent) and the weakening of the middle and working classes politically. The elites then have more room to build barriers to entry and entrench their advantages. However, It’s definitely true that heavyhanded regulation constrains both innovation and growth, and likely prompts capital flight. It’s also true that there are occasional upstarts that can upset the balance of power, but quickly get co-opted into it. But I also think that the further the concentration of resources gets, the more difficult it gets to do anything about it.

after the ECB today, all signs point to a December hike.