Probability of passing CFA exam  Googlesheet version
Hello all,
Because some people contact me and demand an Excel file for calculating the probability of passing. So, I make this spreadsheets and you can guess your probability of passing.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P7wehUN1duVomOInpyZhPZuL3LWAhMc...
the code VBA is in this post
https://www.analystforum.com/forums/cfaforums/cfaleveliiforum/91359989
You change 4 cells (in green and yellow) (and don’t touch grey cells)

Nb MPS: the minimum passing score (in percentage) fixed by CFAI (it can be 70% , 65% or 62%, I don’t know)
 Nb_estimated_right_answers : The number right questions in your estimation
 Nb_sure_wrong_answers: The number wrong questions you found
 p: probability of success of each educated guess (I think it is equal to 1/3 , you can put 0.5, it’s up to you)
 Nb_educated_guesses = 120  Nb_sure_right_answers  Nb_sure_wrong_answers
Example: if you think
 Nb MPS = 65%
 Nb_estimated_right_answers = 70
 Nb_sure_wrong_answers = 10
 p = 50%
your probability of success is 78.33%.
Goodluck :)
PS: I want to share the Excel file, but for some reasons I can’t do that. That’s why I make this google spreadsheet.
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crazyguy :) .
So what’s your probability :) ?
And what about a specifc passing requiriement in ethics :( ?
Studying With
I don’t think there is specific passing requirement for ethics.
I think my probability is around 90% :).
Wow, you are very confident!
with a MPS set at 70%?
Studying With
I think being optimist is good for health :).
I had 8 sure wrong answers (this is really sure :)) ). I guess I have 80 sure right answers (80 is what I hope :)) ).
haha I see :) .
When doing my six mock exams, what I noticed is that I always did some mistakes in the questions where I was sure (but because I was going to fast and was not reading properly the uqestion  like “reading : “which answer is most likely CORRECT” instead of INCORRECT..)
I remember the number of questions which I had noted as “with doubts”but I dont think this is representative of what I actually did right & wrong
Studying With
You are not wrong :). So, I must make a discount and reduce my estimated right answer to 70.
My probability is 55% :
Dude, 55% is amazing, if you were at the casino you would have the best odds ever.
97% probability of passing according to you hahah
Studying With
Why not? I think you prepared well because your note is super. Even I don’t use it (just because I already made my own note) , I still like it.
PS: The probability of passing is correctly calculated. If there is any imprecision, that’s because the model depends a lot on unknown input (Nb_estimated_right_answers, p). The sole known input is Nb_sure_wrong_answers.
I think you’d get a more accurate prediction if you discounted “Nb_estimated_right_answers”. I’d probably discount my by 10%, so if you think you got 70 questions correct, your input would be 70(.9) = 63