Probability of passing CFA exam - Googlesheet version

Hello all,

Because some people contact me and demand an Excel file for calculating the probability of passing. So, I make this spreadsheets and you can guess your probability of passing.

the code VBA is in this post

You change 4 cells (in green and yellow) (and don’t touch grey cells)

  • <!–td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}–> Nb MPS: the minimum passing score (in percentage) fixed by CFAI (it can be 70% , 65% or 62%, I don’t know)
  • Nb_estimated_right_answers : The number right questions in your estimation
  • Nb_sure_wrong_answers : The number wrong questions you found
  • p : probability of success of each educated guess (I think it is equal to 1/3 , you can put 0.5, it’s up to you)
  • Nb_educated_guesses = 120 - Nb_sure_right_answers - Nb_sure_wrong_answers

Example: if you think

  • Nb MPS = 65%
  • Nb_estimated_right_answers = 70
  • Nb_sure_wrong_answers = 10
  • p = 50%

your probability of success is 78.33%.

Goodluck :slight_smile:

PS: I want to share the Excel file, but for some reasons I can’t do that. That’s why I make this google spreadsheet.

crazyguy :slight_smile: .

So what’s your probability :slight_smile: ?

And what about a specifc passing requiriement in ethics :frowning: ?

I don’t think there is specific passing requirement for ethics.

I think my probability is around 90% :).

Wow, you are very confident!

with a MPS set at 70%?

I think being optimist is good for health :-).

I had 8 sure wrong answers (this is really sure :)) ). I guess I have 80 sure right answers (80 is what I hope :)) ).

haha I see :slight_smile: .

When doing my six mock exams, what I noticed is that I always did some mistakes in the questions where I was sure (but because I was going to fast and was not reading properly the uqestion - like "reading : “which answer is most likely CORRECT” instead of INCORRECT…)

I remember the number of questions which I had noted as "with doubts"but I dont think this is representative of what I actually did right & wrong

You are not wrong :-). So, I must make a discount and reduce my estimated right answer to 70.

My probability is 55% :expressionless:

Dude, 55% is amazing, if you were at the casino you would have the best odds ever.

97% probability of passing according to you hahah

Why not? I think you prepared well because your note is super. Even I don’t use it (just because I already made my own note) , I still like it.

PS: The probability of passing is correctly calculated. If there is any imprecision, that’s because the model depends a lot on unknown input ( Nb_estimated_right_answers , p ). The sole known input is Nb_sure_wrong_answers.

I think you’d get a more accurate prediction if you discounted “Nb_estimated_right_answers”. I’d probably discount my by 10%, so if you think you got 70 questions correct, your input would be 70(.9) = 63