Because some people contact me and demand an Excel file for calculating the probability of passing. So, I make this spreadsheets and you can guess your probability of passing.

You change 4 cells (in green and yellow) (and don’t touch grey cells)

<!–td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}–> Nb MPS: the minimum passing score (in percentage) fixed by CFAI (it can be 70% , 65% or 62%, I don’t know)

Nb_estimated_right_answers : The number right questions in your estimation

Nb_sure_wrong_answers : The number wrong questions you found

p : probability of success of each educated guess (I think it is equal to 1/3 , you can put 0.5, it’s up to you)

When doing my six mock exams, what I noticed is that I always did some mistakes in the questions where I was sure (but because I was going to fast and was not reading properly the uqestion - like "reading : “which answer is most likely CORRECT” instead of INCORRECT…)

I remember the number of questions which I had noted as "with doubts"but I dont think this is representative of what I actually did right & wrong

Why not? I think you prepared well because your note is super. Even I don’t use it (just because I already made my own note) , I still like it.

PS: The probability of passing is correctly calculated. If there is any imprecision, that’s because the model depends a lot on unknown input ( Nb_estimated_right_answers , p ). The sole known input is Nb_sure_wrong_answers.

I think you’d get a more accurate prediction if you discounted “Nb_estimated_right_answers”. I’d probably discount my by 10%, so if you think you got 70 questions correct, your input would be 70(.9) = 63