Hello folks,
Given the results are nearing, anxiety is increasing.
I seem to have performed miserably in the morning session. I expect around 40-50%.However, the afternoon session seems to have gone much better, I expect around 70-80%.
Do you think I may have a remote chance of passing. Can I be the last candidate to pass.
Best regards.
i’m same boat as you mate. Let hope Jesus helps us.
Ok sad to know that you are in the same shaky boat. Hope the boat doesn’t overturn.
Only Jesus can help us indeed.
If you assume that 70% overall is a pass (a reasonable assumption), then you can use simple algebra:
50%(AM score) + 50%(PM score) = 70%
Assuming you’re perfect in the afternoon:
50%(AM score) + 50%(100%) = 70%
50%(AM score) + 50% = 70%
50%(AM score) = 20%
AM score = 40%
Personally, I’d aim higher . . . just in case.
If you fail, make sure you also blame jesus for it. You can’t just give him credit for the good stuff, the bad is also on him - cancer, natural disasters, and justin beiber are also his doing
My base case scenario : 67AM and 70PM = 68.5 x probability .5 = 34.25
My high case : 73AM and 75PM = 74 x probability .2 = 14.8
My worst case: 63AM and 67PM = 65 x probability .3 = 19.5
Weighted average score = 68.55
Potential outcome : “Pass” with 87% probability !
Same as my situation. Although I am afraid that I will be on the low end of these intervals.
I expect to fail band 9-10. Maybe I’ll pass though. Or maybe I’ll be a band 5. Who the h*** knows. Let’s see in 2 weeks and not care about that for the time being.
Do you really think 70 is the MPS?
I was thinking much closer to 60.
Justin Bieber? But isn’t he already banished from Canada with a life time ban?
I think 57 to 65 range, 70 would be a high watermark but still possible.
The lowest AM score was 47% and passed. that was in 2013 I think that the lowest score in AM, he scored 68% in PM. Based on 40/60/80 matrix. But here is the interesting part, other candidates scored higher at 54% and 68% PM and failed, While other scored 52% in AM and got 70% in PM and failed too… So its hard to judge here i would say 55% is the cut off in the AM paper and scoring at least 65%-70% in PM.
But based on the model, one of users in AF posted, to estimate Perecntile amongt all L3 candidates shows that you need at least 49.6% to pass in AM while 70% in PM.
Estimated Percentile Amongst All Level 3 Candidates INP UTS** OUTPUTSAM (Essay) ScorePM Score Centered Discriminant Score Estimated Likely Outcome Estimated Percentile Amongst Candidates 49.6 70 0.00267036 Pass #VALUE!**
47 68 Pass
55.7 60 Pass 48.4 68 Pass 49.3 68 Pass 46.8 72 Pass 44.6 60 Fail 46.8 60 Fail 49.9 58 Fail 49.2 60 Fail 46 64 Fail 50.2 60 Fail 53.1 60 Fail 43.6 72 Fail 52.9 68 Fail** 52.1 70 Fail **54.3 68 Fail
tie between Mark McGwire and Mark Wahlberg
And your point is . . . what, exactly? That you can’t do the arithmetic by yourself using 60 instead of 70?
No, my point is that your “reasonable assumption” is unreasonable.
Don’t you have kids to raise? Or, a wife to tend to? 12,000 comments over 2 years? 14 comments a day bro? Boardmember my…
My kids are grown.
I may well spend more time with my wife than you do with yours.
I fail to see how my personal life is any of your concern, or any of your business, for that matter.
I see that you can punch numbers into your calculator; good for you.
If you think that my assumption is unreasonable, substitute your own, and put those legendary calculator skills to the test.
I actually agree with you on the MPS… I would be surprised if it were higher than the low 60’s. That being said, S2000 is likely the most helpful person on these forums so I’d typically say your comment is a little out of line. In this case though I think he just misinterpreted your initial post because I saw it as a sincere question you asked and not a dig.
Pass from 2014, trainwreck of an AM, not much better of a PM
Essay Q# Topic Max Pts <=50% 51%-70% >70% 1 Portfolio Management - Individual 20 - * - 2 Portfolio Management - Individual 19 * - - 3 Equity Investments 17 * - - 4 Economics 15 * - - 5 Portfolio Management - Institutional 16 * - - 6 Portfolio Management - Institutional 16 - * - 7 Fixed Income Investments 11 - - * 8 Portfolio Management - Asset Allocation 15 - - * 9 Portfolio Management - Risk Management 15 - * - 10 Portfolio Management - Monitor&Rebalance 19 - * - 11 Portfolio Management - Individual 17 - * - Item Set Q# Topic Max Pts <=50% 51%-70% >70% - Alternative Investments 18 * - - - Economics 18 * - - - Equity Investments 18 - - * - Ethical & Professional Standards 36 - * - - Fixed Income Investments 36 - - * - Portfolio Management - Individual 18 - - * - Portfolio Management - Performance Eval. 18 * - - - Portfolio Management - Risk Management 18 - - *
Thanks mr magician …and ms miss Cleo. This score matrix if a passing one is quite helpful in creating hope.
If that matrix is truly a pass then my scores will get me the Access Scholarship and a personal invitation to grade the exam next year… ***SARCASM ALERT***
My pleasure.