Sign up  |  Log in

AAPL

Who is betting on (against) AAPL today? I think i saw average est around 1.29-1.31 whereas my team’s estimates are on the lower spectrum. In any event, what say this community?

Automate your Excel models with the industry's most accurate financial, market and economic data.

I’m not in the business of predicting earnings, but the options to play this seem expensive.

“I can no longer obey. I have tasted command, and I cannot give it up.”

IPhone 6 Demand Is ‘Off the Charts’, Says Tim Cook, as Apple Sales Jump

Katherine Rushton
Oct. 20 (Telegraph) – Apple has revealed higher than expected sales for the fourth quarter, in its latest results.
Apple has revealed higher than expected sales for the fourth quarter, in its latest results.

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Surprisingly strong earnings which will be more impressive next year with the larger iphone (which isn’t included here).

I’ll let the price run up the next 3-4 days and then ill buy some puts. I’m not impressed with the iphone nor do i think anyone wants a larger iphone. 

whatsyourgovt wrote:

 nor do i think anyone wants a larger iphone. 

LOL

Palantir wrote:

whatsyourgovt wrote:

 nor do i think anyone wants a larger iphone. 

LOL

There was incredible pent up demand for bigger phone. Everyone who bought bigger samsung etc phones are going apple. BOOM goes the dynamite.

whatsyourgovt wrote:

I’m not impressed with the iphone nor do i think anyone wants a larger iphone. 

Clearly you have never been to a little place called ASIA. There is massive demand for biggie phones, as has been demonstrated by Samsung’s success.

whatsyourgovt wrote:
I’ll let the price run up the next 3-4 days and then ill buy some puts. I’m not impressed with the iphone nor do i think anyone wants a larger iphone.

Let me know how that works out for you. Absent the market going and continuing its collapse, I think AAPL will be just fine. I don’t really get all the haters. Apple has shown quarter, after quarter, after quarter that while they have products that may be technically inferior to other options, they have a very large customer base willing to pay a premium for their products. Now whether these customers are idiots/sheep/etc, quite frankly is irrelevant. People are buying what they’re selling.

^ Agree with the above post.
 
If you guys don’t remember, most of the “analysts” on here predicted the iPad would be a major flop. Who wants that pointless device?
 
People need to work removing emotion/bias from their stock decisions. 

krazykanuck wrote:

whatsyourgovt wrote:
I’ll let the price run up the next 3-4 days and then ill buy some puts. I’m not impressed with the iphone nor do i think anyone wants a larger iphone.

Let me know how that works out for you. Absent the market going and continuing its collapse, I think AAPL will be just fine. I don’t really get all the haters. Apple has shown quarter, after quarter, after quarter that while they have products that may be technically inferior to other options, they have a very large customer base willing to pay a premium for their products. Now whether these customers are idiots/sheep/etc, quite frankly is irrelevant. People are buying what they’re selling.

that said, an irrational group of consumers who pay extra for virtually nothing probably aren’t the most reliable group over a multiyear period, which is how long you will have to own AAPL at this price to actually make some money, unless you’re a shoot-em-up trader. the question is, over a generation, do you really think Apple is worth Oracle, IBM, Intel and Cisco combined? my bet is no. Apple will not be much cooler than these dino names in 10 years and thus the pricing power will be gone. can anyone name a company with mass-market products that has been exceedingly popular for more than 20 years, any time in history? and this company has to provide functional products, not just fashion, b/c you say apple is great b/c of fashion, fashion fades sugar.

purealpha wrote:

People need to work removing emotion/bias from their stock decisions. 

this.

also, i wonder to what degree larger iPhones will cannabilize iPad sales. i’d imagine there aren’t many people who would buy a giant iPhone AND an iPad…

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:
Apple will not be much cooler than these dino names in 10 years and thus the pricing power will be gone.

We have a soothsayer in our midst. It seems that you are desperately hoping that Apple’s brand value collapses in order to prove your investment thesis, disregarding the fact that all evidence is to the contrary. But hope is not much of an investment thesis.

Palantir wrote:

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:
Apple will not be much cooler than these dino names in 10 years and thus the pricing power will be gone.

We have a soothsayer in our midst. It seems that you are desperately hoping that Apple’s brand value collapses in order to prove your investment thesis, disregarding the fact that all evidence is to the contrary. But hope is not much of an investment thesis.

did you write this about yourself? i use history as a guide. you use fascination. it’s not like i’m making a bet either way. you are.

Ok, so when will Apple suddenly stop being cool? Timeframe plzthnx.

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:

also, i wonder to what degree larger iPhones will cannabilize iPad sales. i’d imagine there aren’t many people who would buy a giant iPhone AND an iPad…

I don’t think this would happen. I have a Samsung Note 3 and an ipad mini, they serve different purposes.

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:

also, i wonder to what degree larger iPhones will cannabilize iPad sales. i’d imagine there aren’t many people who would buy a giant iPhone AND an iPad…

+1. iPad sales are already slumping hard, down 13%

I just avoid Apple altogether. Its technological inferior overpriced rubbish, but it also has a cult following of hipsters and other folk. I know better than to bet against garbage people love, but I’m also not excited about massive growth opportunities for AAPL. Trends are fickle and this one might be nearing being played out (or maybe not, but the benefit/risk are not symmetrical).

Slowing top line revenue growth and declining gross margins don’t get me excited about a stock priced for growth. Where am I going to make 20%+ this year on AAPL to compensate for the risk? I don’t see how I can.

“I can no longer obey. I have tasted command, and I cannot give it up.”

Answer me this, who wants to carry around a huge phone? Then again, i dont expect many of you to realize what its like to carry around 8in on a daily basis. 

whatsyourgovt wrote:

Answer me this, who wants to carry around a huge phone? Then again, i dont expect many of you to realize what its like to carry around 8in on a daily basis. 

That must be really, really hard.

Palantir wrote:

Ok, so when will Apple suddenly stop being cool? Timeframe plzthnx.

like all things trading, timing isn’t as important as the trend.

You’re right, blowout sales of the iPhone 6 are a great downtrend. Margins are probably going to be higher, esp as many will choose the 32 GB models…

^ Revenue growth is slowing, margins are declining. These are facts.

“I can no longer obey. I have tasted command, and I cannot give it up.”

No kidding, this is the world’s largest company, growth will not be where it was 10 years ago. These guys made what, 50 B in FCF this year? That’s as much as Intel, Oracle, IBM, and Cisco put together if not more. They returned 19.5B to shareholders this quarter.

Palantir wrote:

No kidding, this is the world’s largest company, growth will not be where it was 10 years ago. These guys made what, 50 B in FCF this year? That’s as much as Intel, Oracle, IBM, and Cisco put together if not more.

They better keep it up or lose my bet with your boy FrankieA.

AAPL vs TEVA 10 year earnings growth. We’re in year 3 and I think I’m winning.

I have no real strong opinion on Apple, but the thing with it’s “cash flow” is that its not really cash flow. All of the cash ends up stuck in a foreign subsidiary and sits on the sidelines (for years now) earning 600-700 bps less than the company’s cost of capital (~8%). The good thing about cash is you can do things with it (acquisitions, capex, share repurchases, dividends) – this “cash” is trapped and has limited use, apparently. At 6/28/14, AAPL had $138B in cash held by foreign subs with $27B held domestically. Bring that cash to the U.S. and you’ll get a big tax hit (EBAY did this earlier this year and quickly turned $9B into $6B). Or you could just pay your U.S. taxes upfront, but it’ll lower your EPS.

Don’t get me wrong, Apple is a great company and I’d never short it for this reason. I just can’t help but look at the cash flow statement and want to make material adjustments b/c they really aren’t generating as much true liquidity as their financial statements show. Apple is returning cash back to shareholders, but they are using proceeds from the issuance of debt to finance much of it!

Apple isn’t the only company with billions of cash held by foreign subsidiaries. I guess these companies are just waiting for a change in tax policy, but that could be YEARS away (if ever).

^ Or, the tax situation could become even worse. This liability is a problem, though I don’t know if its a huge one.

“I can no longer obey. I have tasted command, and I cannot give it up.”

I think Apple is a fine company that has a loyal customer base.  But I agree with MLA – I don’t think smart phones are going to be the thing forever.  I just don’t see an Iphone having staying power.  The question in terms of investments is how long will their customers act as an annuity, as it was recently put.  I don’t know that, and that’s mostly the reason I don’t invest in tech to begin with.  Change is sudden and rapid. 

Just walked around school on my class break. 95% of Students have macs

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:

that said, an irrational group of consumers who pay extra for virtually nothing probably aren’t the most reliable group over a multiyear period, which is how long you will have to own AAPL at this price to actually make some money, unless you’re a shoot-em-up trader. the question is, over a generation, do you really think Apple is worth Oracle, IBM, Intel and Cisco combined? my bet is no. Apple will not be much cooler than these dino names in 10 years and thus the pricing power will be gone. can anyone name a company with mass-market products that has been exceedingly popular for more than 20 years, any time in history? and this company has to provide functional products, not just fashion, b/c you say apple is great b/c of fashion, fashion fades sugar.

Sorry but this seems out of touch with reality in so many ways. 

whatsyourgovt wrote:

Answer me this, who wants to carry around a huge phone? 

Once again, everyone in ASIA. Hello?? Drink some coffee dude.