Who is betting on (against) AAPL today? I think i saw average est around 1.29-1.31 whereas my team’s estimates are on the lower spectrum. In any event, what say this community?

I’m not in the business of predicting earnings, but the options to play this seem expensive.

IPhone 6 Demand Is ‘Off the Charts’, Says Tim Cook, as Apple Sales Jump Katherine Rushton Oct. 20 (Telegraph) – Apple has revealed higher than expected sales for the fourth quarter, in its latest results. Apple has revealed higher than expected sales for the fourth quarter, in its latest results.

Surprisingly strong earnings which will be more impressive next year with the larger iphone (which isn’t included here).

I’ll let the price run up the next 3-4 days and then ill buy some puts. I’m not impressed with the iphone nor do i think anyone wants a larger iphone.


There was incredible pent up demand for bigger phone. Everyone who bought bigger samsung etc phones are going apple. BOOM goes the dynamite.

Clearly you have never been to a little place called ASIA. There is massive demand for biggie phones, as has been demonstrated by Samsung’s success.

Let me know how that works out for you. Absent the market going and continuing its collapse, I think AAPL will be just fine. I don’t really get all the haters. Apple has shown quarter, after quarter, after quarter that while they have products that may be technically inferior to other options, they have a very large customer base willing to pay a premium for their products. Now whether these customers are idiots/sheep/etc, quite frankly is irrelevant. People are buying what they’re selling.

^ Agree with the above post. If you guys don’t remember, most of the “analysts” on here predicted the iPad would be a major flop. Who wants that pointless device? People need to work removing emotion/bias from their stock decisions.

that said, an irrational group of consumers who pay extra for virtually nothing probably aren’t the most reliable group over a multiyear period, which is how long you will have to own AAPL at this price to actually make some money, unless you’re a shoot-em-up trader. the question is, over a generation, do you really think Apple is worth Oracle, IBM, Intel and Cisco combined? my bet is no. Apple will not be much cooler than these dino names in 10 years and thus the pricing power will be gone. can anyone name a company with mass-market products that has been exceedingly popular for more than 20 years, any time in history? and this company has to provide functional products, not just fashion, b/c you say apple is great b/c of fashion, fashion fades sugar.


also, i wonder to what degree larger iPhones will cannabilize iPad sales. i’d imagine there aren’t many people who would buy a giant iPhone AND an iPad…

We have a soothsayer in our midst. It seems that you are desperately hoping that Apple’s brand value collapses in order to prove your investment thesis, disregarding the fact that all evidence is to the contrary. But hope is not much of an investment thesis.

did you write this about yourself? i use history as a guide. you use fascination. it’s not like i’m making a bet either way. you are.

Ok, so when will Apple suddenly stop being cool? Timeframe plzthnx.

I don’t think this would happen. I have a Samsung Note 3 and an ipad mini, they serve different purposes.

+1. iPad sales are already slumping hard, down 13% I just avoid Apple altogether. Its technological inferior overpriced rubbish, but it also has a cult following of hipsters and other folk. I know better than to bet against garbage people love, but I’m also not excited about massive growth opportunities for AAPL. Trends are fickle and this one might be nearing being played out (or maybe not, but the benefit/risk are not symmetrical). Slowing top line revenue growth and declining gross margins don’t get me excited about a stock priced for growth. Where am I going to make 20%+ this year on AAPL to compensate for the risk? I don’t see how I can.

Answer me this, who wants to carry around a huge phone? Then again, i dont expect many of you to realize what its like to carry around 8in on a daily basis.

That must be really, really hard.