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Rate rises and sell offs - what next?

Markets look a little spook last few days. Do we see this as the beginning of a long awaited correction we have all been waiting for in US, or a mere blip before the rally continues?

.....woof

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It’s definitely a blip.

Unless, of course, it isn’t.

Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.

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Spooky!

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rexthedog wrote:

Markets look a little spook last few days. Do we see this as the beginning of a long awaited correction we have all been waiting for in US, or a mere blip before the rally continues?

Better be the beginning of a long long bear market, I have been collecting a war chest and I’d love to start emptying it. 

It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

Fed doubling down saying they think rates will rise pass what’s normal! And so begins the great rotation to bonds!

imo it’s a smart move. This trade war causing commodities to rise, so Fed raising rates to curb inflation. 

Globally markets have already ranked btw. The us is  the only one that has remained unaffected until this past 2 days. Even then we are just 7 percent off peak or something. So it’s nothing alarming.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

funny how everyone has an opinion thats wrong

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

whats your take?

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Been lots of rational pull backs, then near-immediate irrational buy-back.

What’s important; the macro-situation continues to deteriorate, fast. The 100yr collapse is coming—global debt is $250T while global wealth is $280, the “wealthiness” of our time is an illusion, equity valuations are made up, economic stats are made up, the USG/USD is the biggest Ponzi in the history of humanity, the ammo of the market-pumping governments keeps getting lower and as it does they get more desperate to keep the bubble pumped, fascist America continues their socioeconomic collapse internally and preps for WWIII externally. Global entities are going to do “whatever it takes” to keep this bull alive, cause what comes next is going to be ugly.

Think about last century, America’s 1929 financial irresponsibility brought Nazism and Stalinism in the 1930s, and wars, and then finally rebuilding by conservatives (fiscally and socially). History doesn’t repeat, but rhymes. 

purealpha wrote:

Think about last century, America’s 1929 financial irresponsibility brought Nazism and Stalinism in the 1930s, and wars, and then finally rebuilding by conservatives (fiscally and socially). History doesn’t repeat, but rhymes. 

You are not actually relating the great depression in the U.S. to the rise of Hitler/Stalin and general Fascism in the eastern/southern tip of Europe are you?

You do know that WWI was the trigger event for the future WWII right? Both wars have very very little to do with the U.S.

I tend to enjoy your views, because they are a touch on the extreme, but this one is flat out wrong. 

Galli wrote:

You are not actually relating the great depression in the U.S. to the rise of Hitler/Stalin…

Of course I am, everything has a financial driver. 

Nazism was a response to the Great Depression. Germany was hit with massive unemployment, and “solved” that by creating an authoritarian state, which orchestrated massive military industrial sector and infrastructure spending…and of course you need war to justify all that building. In parallel you have “the Great Purge” in 1930s Stalinist Russia, driven by economics—central control to orchestrate, in order to survive bad times, by industrializing, to keep up with West or be destroyed by them.

America also conveniently ignores all the global problems their 2008 financial irresponsibility caused, so not surprised.

I’ve seen a legit documentary on what pa is talking about so I’m with pa. Although ww1 and the reparations demanded from Germany also caused the problems. The primary cause was how the Great Depression in the us affected the world. Us started financiers started demanding payment for loans which caused unrest that lead to a rise in authoritarian regimes. I think ray dalio somewhat touches on this subject too.Watch his last few interviews

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

My personal opinion, that we are just in the beginning stages of AI revolution. Not sure about valuations, but  wealth will be increasingly concentrated in hands of a few

america first!

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

comp_sci_kid wrote:

My personal opinion, that we are just in the beginning stages of AI revolution. Not sure about valuations, but  wealth will be increasingly concentrated in hands of a few

Correct. Corporatism was the first wave of AI, legal/financial-based AI. Next comes the tech-based AI, which is created by the corporations—AI owned by AI—and in turn is programed with the mission of the parent…

Thus yes, corporations which are programed only to maximize profits, will use tech-AI to further maximize profits including at the expense of humanity, and wealth will concentrate further while externalities grow. However you already have the beginnings of a revolutionary war—humans vs corporations—Bannonism. This plays out of the rest of this century, and will not be pretty…

purealpha wrote:
… everything has a financial driver.

This is, of course, absurd.

Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.

Financial Exam Help 123: The place to get help for the CFA® exams
http://financialexamhelp123.com/

S2000magician wrote:

purealpha wrote:
… everything has a financial driver.

This is, of course, absurd.

As usual, you aren’t even in the game kid.

purealpha wrote:
S2000magician wrote:
purealpha wrote:
… everything has a financial driver.

This is, of course, absurd.

As usual, you aren’t even in the game kid.

And, as usual, you’re so predictable.

And absurd.

Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.

Financial Exam Help 123: The place to get help for the CFA® exams
http://financialexamhelp123.com/

Nerdyblop wrote:

I’ve seen a legit documentary on what pa is talking about so I’m with pa. Although ww1 and the reparations demanded from Germany also caused the problems. The primary cause was how the Great Depression in the us affected the world. Us started financiers started demanding payment for loans which caused unrest that lead to a rise in authoritarian regimes. I think ray dalio somewhat touches on this subject too.Watch his last few interviews

There are linkages between the reparations due for Germany’s primary involvement in WWI. I agree with that.  

What started WWI though?  But I suppose you would blame the U.S. for that one as well. America was very anti-interventionism during that time period and tried desperately to stay out of both world wars. You could argue that if the U.S. was involved earlier both wars, they would have finished much much sooner.  If WWI finished sooner, less reparations due and therefore no Hitler.  Do you agree with that view as well? Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. 

My view is that Germany is the only one responsible for the extent of both world wars.  Less so in WWI and definitely moreso in WWII.  Anything else is scapegoating by anti-U.S. leaning individuals who use recent memories of U.S. led intervention to draw linear conclusions over time that don’t actually exist. 

You site the U.S. financiers as a primary factor to blame, are you sharing Hitler’s views then?  You know he blamed the bankers (Jews) for Germany’s dire economic conditions right? They have all the wealth and Germans had nothing. Do you blame the U.S. for the rise of Stalin as well?

I guess you could also blame the U.S. for all the major collapses and global conflicts.  Because you know, damn them for not being around earlier enough to prevent people from making awful decisions! They could have even stopped Judas from betraying Jesus!!

“Anything else is scapegoating by anti-U.S. leaning individuals who use recent memories of U.S. led intervention to draw linear conclusions over time that don’t actually exist.” …Availability bias, totally agree.

lol i can imagine a society enslaving robots and then one day have robots demand freedom, then us granting them that.

ww1 was kind of funny. what triggered it was teh assasination of an heir apparent austrian dude by some dirty serb who sought independence. austria essentially wanted to comp stomp serbia for vengeance, but russia was like dont you touch our serbs. so austria went to germany and was like you got our back? then germany was like aight.  austria makes demands, serbian reject, russia mobilizes. then france who hated germany was like, we’ll join just so our germans neighbors dont get strong. germand beat france. then britain was like same reason as france. then us was financing it and was like oh snap we dont want to lose $$. so they made sure they won. then when the good people won, they placed a lot of debt on the losers. then enter ww2!

what caused world war 2? germany

what caused germany? nazism - authoritarians

what caused nazism? economic problems

what caused the economic problems? hyperinflation

what caused hyperinflation? their debt load

what caused the debt load? ww1 reparations! 

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

S2000magician wrote:

And, as usual, you’re so predictable.

Predicable in my competent analyses, which stand—US financial irresponsibility caused a lot of death last century, and the probabilities are overwhelming that it will do so again this century. It’s already manifesting in their re-starting of the Cold War, because default is closing in, simultaneous with them getting out-competed by CN.

Malee wrote:

“Anything else is scapegoating by anti-U.S. leaning individuals who use recent memories of U.S. led intervention to draw linear conclusions over time that don’t actually exist.” …Availability bias, totally agree.

Or an insightful objective analysis correctly identifying macro-trends, and you are just biased af (cultural bias, etc). enlightened

purealpha wrote:
S2000magician wrote:

And, as usual, you’re so predictable.

Predicable in my competent analyses ad hominem attacks

There … that’s more accurate.

Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.

Financial Exam Help 123: The place to get help for the CFA® exams
http://financialexamhelp123.com/

purealpha wrote:
S2000magician wrote:
And, as usual, you’re so predictable.

Predicable in my competent analyses … .

I’d ask you to provide competent analysis that everything has a financial driver (your absurd claim), but as I know that that’s impossible, and that you’ll simply cower behind another personal attack, I’ll spare you the indignity.

Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.

Financial Exam Help 123: The place to get help for the CFA® exams
http://financialexamhelp123.com/

rexthedog wrote:

Markets look a little spook last few days. Do we see this as the beginning of a long awaited correction we have all been waiting for in US, or a mere blip before the rally continues?

I’m looking forward to some real sales when there’s really some panic and blood on the streets.  

If you're the first out the door, that's not called panicking

Yep I wouldn’t call this 5 percent drop anything bloody. I need to feel sadness like me or a so losing their job. I want budget cuts, massive lay offs, and lowered rates! That’s how I’ll know we reached the circle of life!!!!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

hope everyone bought the dip last week

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

S2000magician wrote:

I’d ask you to provide competent analysis that everything has a financial driver (your absurd claim)…

In case you forgot where you are in your old age—this is the investment forum.

Everything discussed here obviously has a financial driver, or it doesn’t belong here. enlightened

Codtrawler87 wrote:

I’m looking forward to some real sales when there’s really some panic and blood on the streets.  

Same. It’s been 10yrs now of manic unprecedented market pumping—QE, ZIRP, corp tax cuts. The global asset bubble dwarfs 2008. There will be blood, but when?

igor555 wrote:

hope everyone bought the dip last week

I bought it with 2x leverage :)

purealpha wrote:
S2000magician wrote:

I’d ask you to provide competent analysis that everything has a financial driver (your absurd claim)…

In case you forgot where you are in your old age—this is the investment forum.

Everything discussed here obviously has a financial driver, or it doesn’t belong here. enlightened

So typical: you’re wrong, and when it’s pointed out that you’re wrong, you try to redefine your answer so that you appear right.

It’s sad, really.

Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.

Financial Exam Help 123: The place to get help for the CFA® exams
http://financialexamhelp123.com/