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Unemployment at 3.7%. close to a 50 year low. Last time it was like this was 1970!

what is interesting that i did not know, was that unemployment remained range bound at this level from 1965 to 1970. fun facts!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

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So you are saying the strong economy will promise us another term for Trump?

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Yet wages haven’t grown in how long?…..my couch is a pretty comfy spot until firms want to start paying up.

^While wage growth is below the historical average of 6.22% (from 1960-2018 {so you have to account for the massive inflationary period in the late ’70s}), wages are rising at a clip of about 4.80%. That’s not too shabby. 

And, in my experience, firms do pay up…if they want you.

In the region our portfolio companies operate, there is definitely wage pressure.

rawraw wrote:

In the region our portfolio companies operate, there is definitely wage pressure.

And, to be far to the ripple guy, wages are coming down in most areas of financial services. Overall wage growth is pretty good. In finance, not so much.

Sweep the Leg wrote:

^While wage growth is below the historical average of 6.22% (from 1960-2018 {so you have to account for the massive inflationary period in the late ’70s}), wages are rising at a clip of about 4.80%. That’s not too shabby. 

And, in my experience, firms do pay up…if they want you.

Whoa wait a second, the touted wage growth of 2.8 percent in the past year and a half is flat when taking in account for inflation. Not sure what time period you are looking at to suggest “real wages” have grown at 4.8 percent…

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Nerdyblop wrote:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

Household median income. Wages have gone nowhere. This is known!

The question I have is why? Is it because labor truly isn’t scarce? Are the people at the top keeping more in their pockets causing a disproportion for the minions beneath them? Many theories are out there but what is the truth?…Perhaps the labor market isn’t as tight as the BLS and Trump want us to think it is…

Imo, globalization brings wages down, people in developed countries are overpaid and **** is being outsourced in the developing countries. You also see Corporate margins higher and have remained elevated. Productivity per worker has  increased though, so perhaps innovation has also made people more useless! Ai baby give me my ubi!!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Nerdyblop wrote:

Imo, globalization brings wages down, people in developed countries are overpaid and **** is being outsourced in the developing countries. You also see Corporate margins higher and have remained elevated. Productivity per worker has  increased though, so perhaps innovation has also made people more useless! Ai baby give me my ubi!!

Pre tax profits are also at their highest ever. That being said, where is the disconnect? I’d like to see a chart on executive compensation and how that’s grown adjusted for inflation…if that too is flat then sure, automation might be a plausible explanation. 

Can’t remember if I read it on this forum somewhere but recently someone said, “Be so good at your job and streamlining it to the point where you become dispensable”. Eh, really? not so sure I’m down with that.

Give it a bit more time. Stock market might have been kicking a** since 09, but the economic theme was “still humming at half speed”. 

First the economy had to get solid. Then after that you need a few years to wait for everyone to get the benefit from it. And then thats when you’ll see a real change in pace. An actual boom like in the good old days. 

Housing prices will be a new talking point if the seasonal downtrend we are in persists — we have had many trends like this one before, and they are only seasonal. This one is a little unusual due to the low volatility in the trend.  Check existing home sales. The problem is that rates will shock the housing market; I hope the Fed slow down their projections. 

Michael A. Ball wrote:

Housing prices will be a new talking point if the seasonal downtrend we are in persists — we have had many trends like this one before, and they are only seasonal. This one is a little unusual due to the low volatility in the trend.  Check existing home sales. The problem is that rates will shock the housing market; I hope the Fed slow down their projections. 

If inflation doesn’t start to run away and real GDP projections fail to meet reality then I think the Fed will for sure back off. LTVs across the board for the US are still no where near where they were right before the housing crash so I think we would need to see quite the drop in values across the board since people are shying away now from taking out new mortgage debt. As always, we will see…

If you look at median home value to median income, things are looking very similar to 2006ish. Some markets more than others. Grantham has covered this in the past year or two https://www.businessinsider.com/a-new-housing-bubble-2016-5?r=UK&IR=T

Nerdyblop wrote:

Household median income. Wages have gone nowhere. This is known!

Right. But the inflation numbers are a lie. This is known! Which makes it decades of declining real median income. See social unrest, people react to their lived experience, not the made up spreadsheet figures.

Iprofit4sure wrote:

The question I have is why?

Have you not been paying attention? Modern corporatism launched in 1970s, everything traces back to that. It’s a wealth concentration machine.

BankThatDank wrote:

Give it a bit more time. First the economy had to get solid. Then after that you need a few years to wait for everyone to get the benefit from it. And then thats when you’ll see a real change in pace. An actual boom like in the good old days. 

Will never happen. The next collapse will come before the average person ever gets theirs.

yo PA do is it time to add to ASHR or wait?

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

igor555 wrote:

yo PA do is it time to add to ASHR or wait?

burrrrrrrrrrrn!

Iprofit4sure wrote:

Michael A. Ball wrote:

Housing prices will be a new talking point if the seasonal downtrend we are in persists — we have had many trends like this one before, and they are only seasonal. This one is a little unusual due to the low volatility in the trend.  Check existing home sales. The problem is that rates will shock the housing market; I hope the Fed slow down their projections. 

If inflation doesn’t start to run away and real GDP projections fail to meet reality then I think the Fed will for sure back off. LTVs across the board for the US are still no where near where they were right before the housing crash so I think we would need to see quite the drop in values across the board since people are shying away now from taking out new mortgage debt. As always, we will see…

house prices are undervalued in most US cities relative to interest rates. it is not alarming at all that home prices are 1-2 standard deviations from the mean when mortgage rates are half the historical average and institutions are pouring billions into residential property. the only way you can say house prices are overvalued is if you use a 8-10% long-term mortgage rate assumption. even places like toronto and sydney don’t look incredibly overvalued when taking interest rates into consideration. programs to reign in home ownership at the household level (as has occurred in Canada and Australia) will only fuel institutional ownership and in turn boost overall market stability while increasing income inequality further.

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:

Iprofit4sure wrote:

Michael A. Ball wrote:

Housing prices will be a new talking point if the seasonal downtrend we are in persists — we have had many trends like this one before, and they are only seasonal. This one is a little unusual due to the low volatility in the trend.  Check existing home sales. The problem is that rates will shock the housing market; I hope the Fed slow down their projections. 

If inflation doesn’t start to run away and real GDP projections fail to meet reality then I think the Fed will for sure back off. LTVs across the board for the US are still no where near where they were right before the housing crash so I think we would need to see quite the drop in values across the board since people are shying away now from taking out new mortgage debt. As always, we will see…

house prices are undervalued in most US cities relative to interest rates. it is not alarming at all that home prices are 1-2 standard deviations from the mean when mortgage rates are half the historical average and institutions are pouring billions into residential property. the only way you can say house prices are overvalued is if you use a 8-10% long-term mortgage rate assumption. even places like toronto and sydney don’t look incredibly overvalued when taking interest rates into consideration. programs to reign in home ownership at the household level (as has occurred in Canada and Australia) will only fuel institutional ownership and in turn boost overall market stability while increasing income inequality further.

To go even further though, house prices are only a sliver of the big picture anyway. The percentage of mortgages that have higher spreads over the prime lending rate are more telling since they include implicitly all that’s been discussed above in terms of credit risk. Statistically and historically speaking, that metric predicts mortgage default risk most accurately. 

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:

igor555 wrote:

yo PA do is it time to add to ASHR or wait?

burrrrrrrrrrrn!

srs question

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Iprofit4sure wrote:

Sweep the Leg wrote:

^While wage growth is below the historical average of 6.22% (from 1960-2018 {so you have to account for the massive inflationary period in the late ’70s}), wages are rising at a clip of about 4.80%. That’s not too shabby. 

And, in my experience, firms do pay up…if they want you.

Whoa wait a second, the touted wage growth of 2.8 percent in the past year and a half is flat when taking in account for inflation. Not sure what time period you are looking at to suggest “real wages” have grown at 4.8 percent…

Wages grew at 4.79% (I rounded up) in Aug. 2018 compared to Aug. 2017 according to the site below (which cites the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

Admittedly, that was the first site that popped up on Google so I just used that at the time. Looking a little closer, I realize that I’ve never heard of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (it is an actual thing…a part of the Dept of Commerce) and they don’t collect the data anyway. That falls to the Bureau of Labor Statistics which confirms that real wages haven’t really gone anywhere since the ’70s. Here their info of monthly real wage growth over the last year - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf.

My bad for posting incorrect info. Not surprising that two government bureaus can’t get their fact straight though.

1970 - Nixon era. 2018 - Trump era. Unemployment bottomed both times. Is this a Tell? 

Next stage is a stagflation if the historical pattern would repeat.

I do not ask for the trust nor give it to you.

Sweep the Leg wrote:

Iprofit4sure wrote:

Sweep the Leg wrote:

^While wage growth is below the historical average of 6.22% (from 1960-2018 {so you have to account for the massive inflationary period in the late ’70s}), wages are rising at a clip of about 4.80%. That’s not too shabby. 

And, in my experience, firms do pay up…if they want you.

Whoa wait a second, the touted wage growth of 2.8 percent in the past year and a half is flat when taking in account for inflation. Not sure what time period you are looking at to suggest “real wages” have grown at 4.8 percent…

Wages grew at 4.79% (I rounded up) in Aug. 2018 compared to Aug. 2017 according to the site below (which cites the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

Admittedly, that was the first site that popped up on Google so I just used that at the time. Looking a little closer, I realize that I’ve never heard of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (it is an actual thing…a part of the Dept of Commerce) and they don’t collect the data anyway. That falls to the Bureau of Labor Statistics which confirms that real wages haven’t really gone anywhere since the ’70s. Here their info of monthly real wage growth over the last year - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf.

My bad for posting incorrect info. Not surprising that two government bureaus can’t get their fact straight though.

No worries, I think that obviously if someone has the necessary skills they can find a well paying job. However, it just isn’t as easy as the media portrays it to be and it ends up giving the public a false sense of reality in regards to the current state of the labor market. . 

Flashback wrote:

1970 - Nixon era. 2018 - Trump era. Unemployment bottomed both times. Is this a Tell? 

Next stage is a stagflation if the historical pattern would repeat.

yep. i think teh bull market of late 1960 is where we are right now, and the 1970 is a real thing to watch out for. which is why i got into learning about real estate. imo if inflation skyrockets, id want to have a ton of fixed debt at a low rate, and an asset that will hopefully increase its earnings as fast as inflation.

just looking at the level of debt we have in a dollar denominated world, with a growing lack of ****s on opp, we should try to inflate our money and make our dollars worth less. 

there was a piece on wsj, that noted that foreign ownership of us 15t treasury debt has fallen significantly, from 50% in 2013, to around 40% today! imo they are doing the right thing! us needs to start raising taxes, and cutting benefits. BRING on the austerity!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Nerdyblop wrote:

Flashback wrote:

1970 - Nixon era. 2018 - Trump era. Unemployment bottomed both times. Is this a Tell? 

Next stage is a stagflation if the historical pattern would repeat.

yep. i think teh bull market of late 1960 is where we are right now, and the 1970 is a real thing to watch out for. which is why i got into learning about real estate. imo if inflation skyrockets, id want to have a ton of fixed debt at a low rate, and an asset that will hopefully increase its earnings as fast as inflation.

just looking at the level of debt we have in a dollar denominated world, with a growing lack of ****s on opp, we should try to inflate our money and make our dollars worth less. 

there was a piece on wsj, that noted that foreign ownership of us 15t treasury debt has fallen significantly, from 50% in 2013, to around 40% today! imo they are doing the right thing! us needs to start raising taxes, and cutting benefits. BRING on the austerity!

This is true. Additionally, for the first time in like 20 years, the net foreign purchases of US Debt turned negative recently. Where is the inflation going to come from though is what I ponder? Most fixed income/economists I read think even 2% expected is going to be aggressive. 

igor555 wrote:

yo PA do is it time to add to ASHR or wait?

Well ASHR is the winning bet this century.

We now see America’s admission that they are finished, they are panicking, the end is near. BUT, there could be WWIII between now and CN being the new global power. Gotta keep some ammo free for the global collapse. Defense, then offense.