10 year at 3.84 today wow
“10 year at 3.84 today wow” pretty much all that can be said…
Better question is who! Who’s locking up their capital for 10 years to earn only 3.84% per year!?!
You can trade out of it. I was a buyer of bonds today. … which probably means the smart money is going the other way!
so what does this mean for Mortgage rates?
Has the probability of a recession increased? I want to go long stocks, but I’m waiting until after the election in the States, Russia and the Olympic Games in China.
Why olympic games in china?
So…? It’ll go back up when the sovereign wealth funds dump all their petrodollars 
Mortgage rates will follow MBS, which have widened pretty sharply until very recently. In other words, the drop in USTs does not translate 1:1 with Mortgage rates. Par coupon MBS are 5.5s right now (though 6.0s are only a 101 handle). Add a spread to that (originator profit, servicing), and you get where mortgage rates should be. We should be in low 6s for conforming, as a guesstimate. Im not a mortgage guy, so someone could probably handle this for me.
Where are those bozos who thought the 10 year would go to 6% with more rate cuts? The flight to safety is on…
recession is imminent.
All your dollars are belongs to us!
Gotta love a market rally fueled by hopes of a third rate cut in 4 months and that WFC was the only company taking a multi-billion dollar write down… IMO, any rally like today will only mean a harder fall down the road…
^ I agree with that. I really don’t understand the logic behind the Fed injecting liquidity while the rest of the world says that credit issues prevent lending money but that somehow a possible Fed rate cut will accrue to the benefit of equity holders…
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ^ I agree with that. I really don’t understand > the logic behind the Fed injecting liquidity while > the rest of the world says that credit issues > prevent lending money but that somehow a possible > Fed rate cut will accrue to the benefit of equity > holders… its entirely irrational, I don’t understand it either but I guess hope has taken over reason as a driving force for alot of people’s investment decisions.
The equity market is far to obsessed with rate cuts. All a rate cut in December will mean is that the fed is sure that we are entering a recession in 08. Shortsighted to say the least.
Being a trader for 4 years, I can say that the market moves when you least expect it a lot of the time. Squeezes is part of the game. Money would be too easy to make if 90% were bearish and then the market tanks. Most of the market tanks I have seen was when people were caught long. I don’t think it’s only the rate cut decision that has lifted the market, but also short sellers getting squeezed after shorting as soon as the Dow broke the low of last August.
i would be reluctant to say that 90% of investors are bearish given that the dow is still up almost 10% over the past 12 months…