2008 - Glad its over....

Downsizing, bail outs, lay offs, etc, etc It’s been a wild ride. Worse thing to happen to me was phone call from my folks telling me about some firm that is going to go broke then ask me where I work. When I say the same place they simply went, “oh”

finally the crisis is over and we can relax

“It ain’t over till it’s over”. Two more days lads - plenty of time for more cr@p to happen.

Do you guys think there will be even more violent swings in the market like last January?

There’s a good chance 2009 will be worse.

I did not say it is over but simply 2008 is over. I 2nd that 2009 could be worse.

2009 will, like March, be “In like a lion, out like a lamb.” If you’re sitting on TBT.

I think 2009 will look terrible macro-wise, but I’m not convinced that that will send the market much lower from here. What doesn’t make sense to me is that we haven’t seen all that many hedge funds explode, despite anecdotal evidence that these guys were taking large amounts of risk. So were they more nimble than the banks or are they concealing large losses?

I think there has been plenty of HFs that are kaput, and many that are not quite done…gating redemptions, etc have softened the initial blow and given them a chance to hang on while they liquidate instead of being forced to sell everything off…but if your assets are down by 60%, that impacts a lot of things including staff, strategy, etc. So it will be a bit longer of a process but a similar result imo.

yes, but I’m talking real blow-ups. Like all the equity wiped out and then some. Losing 60% of your equity if you are 5x levered is not the worst outcome imaginable…

Etienne Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I think 2009 will look terrible macro-wise, but > I’m not convinced that that will send the market > much lower from here. > > What doesn’t make sense to me is that we haven’t > seen all that many hedge funds explode, despite > anecdotal evidence that these guys were taking > large amounts of risk. So were they more nimble > than the banks or are they concealing large > losses? I agree, 2009 will look terrible on the macro front, but it may not be as bad for markets. A lot may be priced in already. There may be a tanking in February or March when some people get frustrated that Obama didn’t fix everything in the first 30 days, but there’s a good chance that lots of disaster has been priced in. I see people trying to compute a fair value for the S&P and things. What methodologies (methods, really) are used for doing that?

2008 was personally my worst year since the day I came to existence! GLAD it’s OVER and lucky to be still alive … oh wait … there is still 1.5 day and some change left for something fatal to occur. It’s not over until it’s completely over.

2008 was one of my best years ever, I got engaged, started a decent job, got into and started business school…then my fiance got laid off this morning. Happy freaking new year. dinesh.sundrani Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 2008 was personally my worst year since the day I > came to existence! > > GLAD it’s OVER and lucky to be still alive … oh > wait … there is still 1.5 day and some change > left for something fatal to occur. > > It’s not over until it’s completely over.

On a personal front 2008 was my worst year alive. Even getting my charter couldnt make it any better. I wish it had never happened.

bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Etienne Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I think 2009 will look terrible macro-wise, but > > I’m not convinced that that will send the > market > > much lower from here. > > > > What doesn’t make sense to me is that we > haven’t > > seen all that many hedge funds explode, despite > > anecdotal evidence that these guys were taking > > large amounts of risk. So were they more > nimble > > than the banks or are they concealing large > > losses? > > > I agree, 2009 will look terrible on the macro > front, but it may not be as bad for markets. A lot > may be priced in already. There may be a tanking > in February or March when some people get > frustrated that Obama didn’t fix everything in the > first 30 days, but there’s a good chance that lots > of disaster has been priced in. > > I see people trying to compute a fair value for > the S&P and things. What methodologies (methods, > really) are used for doing that? We see it on a stock-by-stock basis. Applying an intrinsic value method, we factor in large hits to 2009/2010/2011 earnings and still find stocks that look cheap. Might still be wrong, but has the world really changed THAT much? I think you just have to believe that the good times will eventually… one day… come back.

needhelp Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > On a personal front 2008 was my worst year alive. > Even getting my charter couldnt make it any > better. I wish it had never happened. Welcome to the club I am chairing - That has to be the WORST year ever from all the past and the future to come (I can write it and state this in my blood)

Even in sports: Fed declined Patriots lost Super Bowl Tiger broke his leg Brady injured Did Nostradamus say anything about 2008?

it ain’t over until the Israeli tanks roll into Gaza…personally, I can’t wait until 2012, some say it will be the worst year ever…

ceo1975 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I can’t wait until 2012, some > say it will be the worst year ever… Only in December…

bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ceo1975 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I can’t wait until 2012, some > > say it will be the worst year ever… > > > Only in December… The world will end on December 21, 2012.