2019 Ideas

scared money don’t make money… what names/sectors/assets are on your watchlist heading into 2019?

I’m starting to look at banks again. OZK is the only one I’m active in (OW - Vol) . They should report earnings in the first half of January 2019. Mr. Market will be looking for additional signs of credit weakness

I’d like to see how the esports industry grows. I’m leaning towards Activision (ATVI) because of Blizzard but EA and TTWO aren’t bad either. They’ve taken huge hits recently bringing P/E to 20ish which seems ok. A drop below 15 and it’ll look really good

List of interesting sectors (for other people’s money):

  1. Bullish Retail - US consumerism continues to outperform. Holiday sales were the best ever in 2018. Oil prices in tailspin, easy to drive to Target. Despite everything else, count on Americans binge shopping without end.

  2. Bullish Consumer Staples - Boring stocks are under appreciated in this multi year bull market. If anything, they’ll be better than other stocks in volatile conditions.

  3. Bearish Tech - Herding millennials kept buying brand name companies they liked. How much premium is priced in? Expect one of FANG cohort to have some big problem, and spread contagion to adjacent names.

  4. Bearish Real Estate - Home prices are out of control! Every quarter, data is looking worse.

For 2% commission, I’ll happily manage your thematic portfolio. Tanks in advance.

Agree with Ohai’s view verbatim.

Additionally, I like Basic Materials. Paper / Pulp / Lumber: IP, WY, MERC. Chemicals: DWDP, NTR, ETN, SHW, ECO. Metals/Mining: NUE, TECK, BHP.

Industrials neutral on the sector, but like ERJ, GE, ROP.


Like Pipelines (TRP and ENB), AT&T. Agree with calls on Consumer staples and Materials. Love NTR as well

Yeah, NTR is good, like FMC, CC, HUN too. Lots of amazing widespread value in the chemicals space, so much to the extent an ETF almost just makes sense.

Tim Crook a month ago: “No longer disclosing iPhone sales volumes , not relevant to business.”

Today, also Tim Crook: “Lower iPhone sales volumes driving guidance reduction.”

I’m no Steve Jobs, but this feels like a one or the other thing.

AAPL down 7% after hours today - weak guidance, especially from China.

People need to get with the program and start looking at that 60% iPhone gross margin while Samsung giving away TV’s and Huwai killing them in EM (they won’t admit it).

In general, yes, Apple seems to have lost their ability to shock customers with innovative new products. This will erode their margins over time. This time, it seems more related to awful China economic projections.

I think Apple needs to reinvigorate their service products by allowing pron into the Apple Store. Since pron is like 80% of the internet, it stands to reason that Apple Store has 200% to 400% in revenue to gain. When the BangBros app is #1, remember you heard it here first.

very sad!

it’s just below my orig price target I had in mind back in 2015/2016… which I don’t update as often as I should. (Revisited a few weeks ago it’s moved up, looks undervalued to me) I dunno, I hate to sell into a falling market but maybe that would be my second mistake, not selling when it crossed it originally… I dunno. Massive cash balance and even if revs are down, it has a captive user base and good margins, services… still generating tons of cash. I’ll have to think about it more. Maybe more downside but if i sell now it feels like 2016(?) again when people were super bearish and it cracked $90.

it was 18x at its recent peak. it sells right now for 11.5x. there really is no replacement phone. i have tried them. when your entire family or friends have an iphone. its really retarded to use any other phone. sending pics is very hard! iphones are so good that people keep them and dont resell them. in fact their resale value is ridiculously good. plus the fact that cos like google will pay 9b in 2018 and 12b in 2019 to be the default search engine is something to keep in mind. that is pure margin for them, and google still has a ridiculous amount of margin. with that said i dont really like to use other search engines.

I just loaded a bit more into the ol’ 529 today.

Nery why you downvote me. Anyway, with AAPL, they cannot grow earnings by selling phones to existing users - not exactly anyway. Tim Cook wants you to buy a new iPhone every 2 years, but most people won’t upgrade that often. He’s also stated that they’ll make more money by increasing phone prices, but how much more than $1000 are they going to be able to charge?

I don’t know if the current valuation makes AAPL cheap - maybe it does, even though guidance can always change dramatically like it did yesterday. What people do know is that Tim Cook’s plan is BS, and the market is calling him out on that. The fact is that smart phone sales are showing signs of peaking, and Apple’s old growth plan is invalid in today’s more competitive and commoditized market.

After Jobs went away, Apple became a company of milkers, not leaders. Tim Cook is a brilliant operations specialist, but not an artist or social leader like Steve. His job has been to take Apple’s existing business and tap all the money they can from captive users. He has succeeded in that, but that only goes so far.

I’m long SUNE, Kodak, and 3D printing stocks.

hp, as someone who bought AAPL in the $90s during the last selloff and as someone who is not at all interested in the stock in the $140s, i’m here to tell you AAPL’s competitive advantage is much different now than it was in 2015/2016.

the two things that kept AAPL users trapped in the AAPL ecosystem in 2015/2016 were FaceTime and iTunes.

now that Google Duo can be used on all devices and it is comparable if not better than FaceTime, it is likely to become the go-to video calling app. FaceTime reminds me of BBM that is doomed to fail because it was only functional on BlackBerries. when FaceTime is made available to all devices, Duo will be preinstalled on 85% of the world’s phones and manually installed by much of the iPhone user base.

now that everyone uses Netflix for video (and more will use streaming apps for video when AT&T and Disney launch their services this year) and the hipper of the lot uses some form a streaming service for music (Spotify, Pandora, etc), the value of one’s iTunes library is miniscule.

i see no reason for anyone to stick with iPhone and know several people who have switched from iPhone to Pixel in the past year. primary reason - FaceTime no longer necessary and they all have Spotify.

Also, iMessage is redundant with WhatsApp, which is also something used by 80%+ of the world essentially.

Anyway, this is also besides the point, which is that Apple earnings cannot grow even with user retention, if those users do not upgrade their phones at some relatively high frequency. Phones are getting better and remain usable for more years. This increases the replacement interval and decreases sales of new phones.

haha it wasnt me. i just downvoted you even further to -3! anyways i agree they very likely cant charge higher prices. hence why they stopped reporting certain metrics like unit sales. but it is also foolish to think that they cant make more money in other services with higher margins. lol apple made money on hardware. hardware is typically just the tip