2019 Ideas

is buffett still buying GE?

I’m mostly in cash right now. I sleep like a baby.

is everyone ready for all time highs?

NYSE Cum A/D just hit another ATH

We have to keep winning!

[video:https://youtu.be/daOH-pTd_nk?t=26]

don’t do what i did. Ive slept since 2015

The whole world is sitting on cash right now.

Meaningfully trimmed AAPL stake, I love the company but I think it’s fully priced. We’re also at market highs, stock is ~3% of all-time highs. More of a risk management move on my part, rebalancing. ~6.5% normalized fcf yield, margins very slowly slipping. Lots of investment for aapl tv and gaming coming. Counting on bump from 5G but I don’t most people even know or care what that means.

i hate the new apple update. anyways i am shoppign for a new phone. i dont want to get the new iphone without the home button. but im pretty cheap. i usually go with whats discounted.

I still own AAPL so please buy an iPhone and the new earbuds that cost $250, tanks

I wish they would start making a small iphone SE sized phone. I know they have an “SE 2” coming out in March but the talk is all that its just a less small and somewhat cheap budget phone. I think there’s a realistic market that wants something sleek and small.

Matt - Disney is probably going to generate a billion dollars in baby yoda swag alone. Time to load up right?

the DIS move was pretty easy to anticipate but we still don’t really know how + is actually doing. DIS is crushing it as a whole though. relative value is rough compared to crappy peers but this has been the case for a while. DIS is certainly one of the big leaders that doesn’t look insanely expensive.

speaking of AAPL again, valuation is nuts. no top line growth, EPS declining despite huge buybacks but trades at 23x, net debt position now. earnings basically haven’t grown for 4 years when you exclude the financial engineering. i guess that’s how market crashes happen. the big guys gotta fall a lot too.

Some analyst boosted his AAPL price target to $350 ha

I swear these guys last year were talking about the stock like it was going to fall under $100.

May trim more, need to wait for 2020 anyways for tax reasons but I don’t think it’s THAT overvalued. People are pricing in top line growth, 6% and 8% in 2020, 2021 consensus it looks like. I don’t know from where but even without, normalized FCF yield, adj for cash, looks ok and sustainable, imo.

Alright, AAPL got me worried.

Looks like a lot of window dressing.

I made a similar trade in the summer and parlayed the profit into EDIT (crispr gene editing). Still long EDIT.

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/01/data-update-2-for-2020-retrospective-on.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FpHUuM+%28Musings+on+Markets%29