2020 Presidential election odds

lol i think this wall is costing trump and the repubs votes. i dont know who the democrat candidates are, but im pretty sure we are swining left after this nightmare. 4.4 trillion budget being held up by a 5.7b wall. 0.1% of our funding. lolzars.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/trump-tells-pelosi-he-will-give-state-of-the-union-during-government-shutdown.html

Gabbard would never win any state’s primary, nor excite the left to get out and vote.

Surprised Bernie is as low as he is, he gets people excited. At the very least I hope he is able to get the rest of the candidates to adopt some of his policies.

How quick dems to call her an Assad apologetic. She met with him …

shes well spoken, logical, a female, and attractive. She should be dems front runner but y’all are so brainwashed

I doubt that a recession will actually lock Trump out of winning in 2020. Most Trump supporters will simply attribute the data to other factors, such as the Fed or Democrats. Voter loyalty tends to be sticky. For example, most Trump voters blame Democrats for the current government shutdown, while most Democrats blame Trump.

Furthermore, consumer confidence, unemployment rates, or perceptions of those measures might not be correlated with the economic growth trend over a couple of recent quarters. Even if there is a recession on paper, it’s not clear that voters will immediately feel its effects in everyday life.

Even if Trump were to perform poorly in economic measures, it won’t matter, if his opponent is perceived to be potentially more damaging. On economic terms alone, I cannot really imagine choosing Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren over Trump, unless Trump does something truly catastrophic, beyond anything that he’s already done or talked about doing.

Finally, disapproval of Trump tends to cause the left wing of Democrats to conflagrate. Trump related controversy will increase the odds that Democrats will choose a more left leaning candidate, and this will be harmful to their election prospects. As usual, it would be better for the Democrats odds, as well as the country’s interests, if they run a centrist candidate. Hillary’s disaster has diminished this probability, unfortunately.

It’s pretty striking how few Governors are running (are any? Steve Bullock of Montana perhaps?) on the Dem side. You’ve got all these reps throwing their hat in the ring, kind of dumb.

Putting aside the Assad thing, do you think a group of people who wanted to crucify Kavanaugh for something he allegedly did decades ago is going to be okay with something that she indisputably was involved with 15 years ago? Perhaps it’s not fair to analogize sexual assault with an anti-LGBT stance, but conversion therapy is really messed up, and much of the dem. base is so feverishly pro-LGBT that I can’t see her shaking this issue.

I wonder what changes, if any, the pollsters are going to make since all of their “independent” polls seemed to lean the exact same way in the last election.

^This. Dems should be focused on reclaiming the white middle class voters they lost to Trump. Doubling down on a socialist or race baiter will surely lose them the 2020 election.

I think there are a lot of people voted for Trump last time in the hopes of him behaving. Well, that hasn’t been the case, so I wonder if he has the same ability to get the swing vote this time in Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio. But then I live in Southern California, and the love for Trump here is nonexistent, so maybe my view is clouded.

meeting Assad is a good thing - talking is must to avoid war.

shes addresses this - she was raised in that household but her views have evolved which is reflected in her voting record.

shes shown character when she dropped her role in the dnc to support Bernie. She’s the best choice otherwise it’ll be trump again

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/24/elizabeth-warren-to-propose-new-wealth-tax-economic-advisor.html

im a big fan. but a 50m penalty to quit citizenship is crazy cheap. allowing people to quit their us citizenship should be more punishing than an estate tax to deter capital flight and punish traitors

also funding the irs is prolly the best roi

I don’t know if you can force people to be citizens of the country. If you renounce citizenship, that seems like a unilateral decision.

Warren should build a wall to keep inside the country those who want to denounce US citizenship for tax avoidance purposes.

those worthless vermin opportunists can leave. just take their money and invest in more loyal americans.

again i am not saying lets force people to be citizens. nor am i saying people cant quit their citizenship. i am just saying lets make it fiscally draining for them. they made their money in the us hence whatever profits they saved should remain here.

anyways net net though they are traitors, they still contributed more than low quality people.

I don’t think there’s that decent many countries that actually provide better tax incentives than the U.S ,even with whatever Warren said. People who revoke their U.S citizenship for tax purposes do so because their businesses are outside of the U.S and they have to pay IRS and whatever country they reside in,this is very different than revoking it when the dough was made here.

I wonder where the Starbucks guy or mayor Mike falls in these prediction markets.

Bloomberg has more or less stated that he won’t run. If he did, he would try to run as a Democrat, but he would have little chance in getting the party nomination. Shultz is probably 50/50, but it’s hard to see him with any credible chance of winning without party money and endorsement.

What happened to Michael Avennati? Did something happen?

Please no Mayor Mike. I really like him, but gun control and big gulp control are not winning issues in presidential elections. Better candidate who doesn’t get enough attention for president is Jamie Dimon.

Tulsi Gabbard