I wonder if this years higher lvl 1 pass rate is a result of more folks with strong finance backgrounds opting to join the CFA process. Seemed that when I started the exams that a decent amount of the people taking it came from non-finance backgrounds. With all the recent lay-offs maybe a big pool of candidates who already know the majority of the lvl 1 materials skewed this years results.
FastEd Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > L2 - 56% > L3 - 65% That will more than do it for me.
olfy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > i still don’t get how could 3 choice answers could > improve the pass rate. as far as i remember, the > 4th answer was crap anyways. > That may be right but if you were just plain out guessing then it will significantly increase your odds of guessing correct.
I am expecting a pass rate of 60% ± 5% for Level 3 based on my regression analysis of last years Level II pass and Level III fail percentages.
Nice, we are updating our estimates our passing rates based on Level I results. I love Bayes law 
Huongz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I went thru the program in 2.5 years (Dec '06, > June '07, and June '08). The pass rate on all 3 > were 35%*40%*50 = roughly 7/100 make it thru > without fail. > > If these rates hold up, more like 20/100 will make > it thru. This is bull. May we all drop to our knees and bow to the great Huongz. Golf Clap…
Big Babbu Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Huongz Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > May we all drop to our knees and bow to the great > Huongz. > Golf Clap… Wow Big Babbu, can I learn how to be sarcastic like you too? That’s an awesome response man!
maratikus Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Nice, we are updating our estimates our passing > rates based on Level I results. I love Bayes law > Bayes’ Theorem
huongz, you jumped out to a huge lead in the race for the af douche of the year prize. (may be the first time it is awarded to charterholder, not a candidate! notable past winners include such luminaries as bleron) congrats. seriously. get a hold of yourself, champ.
Wow…it seems like EVERYONE i know (AND their friends who took level 1 also) has passed…I believe thats a total of around 10 people that I know that has passed level 1…amazing…
Huongz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I went thru the program in 2.5 years (Dec '06, > June '07, and June '08). The pass rate on all 3 > were 35%*40%*50 = roughly 7/100 make it thru > without fail. > > If these rates hold up, more like 20/100 will make > it thru. This is bull. Congratulations! What are you up to? Did you get your charter? In what ways did this help you? Thanks. By the way, your calculation abuses the assumptions of independence of events.
Huongz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Big Babbu Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Huongz Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > > > May we all drop to our knees and bow to the > great > > Huongz. > > Golf Clap… > > > Wow Big Babbu, can I learn how to be sarcastic > like you too? That’s an awesome response man! You need some work dude. It’ll take more than 35 posts and the ability to spunk all over yourself to get there.
cfasf1 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > huongz, you jumped out to a huge lead in the race > for the af douche of the year prize. (may be the > first time it is awarded to charterholder, not a > candidate! notable past winners include such > luminaries as bleron) congrats. seriously. get a > hold of yourself, champ. Maybe if you weren’t so smart and perhaps inundated with your 3000+ posts, you’d realize that the whole point of my original comment is that at these pass rates its a lot easier to make it thru the program = not good for the value of the charter.
Huongz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I went thru the program in 2.5 years (Dec '06, > June '07, and June '08). The pass rate on all 3 > were 35%*40%*50 = roughly 7/100 make it thru > without fail. > > If these rates hold up, more like 20/100 will make > it thru. This is bull That’s a bit of a probability fail. That assumes independence - but we all know that some people are brighter and/or more hard working than others. The chances are much higher than that. It’s also a bit disappointing to see the number of people jumping to the conclusion that the higher pass rate is a direct result of the move from 4 > 3 choices for MCQs. You need to test for other factors. We all know that the greatest difficulty of passing these exams is not necessarily the difficulty of the material but rather finding the time to study in amongst having a job. I wonder if there has been any events over the last year that may have led to people having an increased amount of time to devote to the exams? Can’t recall anything on the news…
dude, you can let up now… you’ve got this thing in the bag. i don’t think anyone is even close to you in this race for the prize. reread your post, douche. if you can read it and tell me it’s not a self indulgent piece of shit, i will apologize. while you are reading that post again, also remember that this forum is full of people awaiting results. there are also people who may not have gone 3 for 3 or failed a few times at different levels. still don’t get why you came off douchey? my guess is that you still have no idea. done. let’s not get into a fight on an internet forum. it won’t do either of us any good.
cfasf1 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > dude, you can let up now… you’ve got this thing > in the bag. i don’t think anyone is even close to > you in this race for the prize. +1
The 46% pass rate in Level 1 could indicate that CFAI is trying to revert to the mean pass rate. Thus, the Level 3 pass rate could be aroun 65%+/- 5%. sh34
Huongz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I went thru the program in 2.5 years (Dec '06, > June '07, and June '08). The pass rate on all 3 > were 35%*40%*50 = roughly 7/100 make it thru > without fail. > > If these rates hold up, more like 20/100 will make > it thru. This is bull. I’m afraid if I look directly at my computer monitor I may be blinded by your infinite wisdom. In fact, my computer is running rather slowly. Most likely it is as in awe of you as I am, I had better get out of this thread before my hard drive crashes.
Bankin’ Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Huongz Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I went thru the program in 2.5 years (Dec '06, > > June '07, and June '08). The pass rate on all > 3 > > were 35%*40%*50 = roughly 7/100 make it thru > > without fail. > > > > If these rates hold up, more like 20/100 will > make > > it thru. This is bull. > > > I’m afraid if I look directly at my computer > monitor I may be blinded by your infinite wisdom. > In fact, my computer is running rather slowly. > Most likely it is as in awe of you as I am, I had > better get out of this thread before my hard drive > crashes. It’s crashing right now. Get the hell out here:-)
------------------------------------------------------- > I went thru the program in 2.5 years (Dec '06, > June '07, and June '08). The pass rate on all 3 > were 35%*40%*50 = roughly 7/100 make it thru > without fail. > > If these rates hold up, more like 20/100 will make > it thru. This is bull That is more like 1.5 years or you studied 1 full year for L1. If that is not the case then you need to take Algebra 101 first.