AF Coin Flip "Tournament" -- a study in statistical luck

I was reading about how seemingly “lucky” events are actually not so lucky as they statistical certainties even with a large random sample size. For example, if everyone in the entire world participated in a single elimination coin flip contest, someone “lucky” is going to win their coin toss every time to win the tournament. I rounded up the names of top 128 regulars on AF to play the same game. I used a random number generator on Excel to determine the pair-ups. I’ll flip a coin to determine who wins each pair up and moves on to the next round. I’ll post the updates every now and then. Feel free to speculate on who the luckiest player is. The pair ups: PTrainerNY vs. ws actuaryalfred vs. billwest tvPM vs. jax26 nirjraina vs. MehdiOchre Mona8835 vs. CFA_Halifax bigwilly vs. frisian tobias vs. mwvt9 thepinkman vs. ymc dlpicket vs. Soda Popinski Mr.Good.Guy vs. Bill.S.Preston,Esq TheAliMan vs. SeanC KarenC vs. supersharpshooter Black Swan vs. bchadwick L3Buckaroo vs. philip.platt cfaboston28 vs. busprof topher vs. phBOOM kblade vs. storko Turkish vs. LPoulin133 DanLieb vs. AnalystForum Bankin’ vs. spierce kkent vs. comp_sci_kid a7m002 vs. DirtyZ oldmonk vs. Gouman ahahah vs. ZeroBonus itstoohot vs. swaptiongamma Neud vs. KJH akanska vs. ancientmtk Mobius Striptease vs. EMRA32 danteshek vs. Pox Americana former trader vs. joemontana gaffano vs. IHeartMath s23dino vs. EMHdenied fxguy1234 vs. RAwannabeCFA joeydvivre vs. McLeod81 goldenboy09 vs. SkipE99 mcpass vs. needhelp amberpower vs. taz722 jlx177 vs. Carson Dwight vs. Muddahudda Mr. Pink vs. artvandalay mo34 vs. hala_madrid TheChad vs. WillyR purealpha vs. louisvillegrad JOE2010 vs. DonYuan Captain Windjammer vs. ditchdigger2CFA dspapo vs. numi JohnThainsLimoDriver vs. juventurd CFABLACKBELT vs. NakedPuts eureka vs. jimjohn recycler vs. Etienne scandoworker vs. ConvertArb CFAdummy vs. JasonU bromion vs. Dreary Chuckrox8 vs. mpnoonan thems vs. XSellSide pimp vs. Rudeboi MattLikesAnalysis vs. sublimity dinesh.sundrani vs. Mason88 BiPolarBoyBoston vs. cjones65 marcus phoenix vs. cfa_mba JustPass vs. sbmarti2 brianr vs. FrankArabia pacmandefense vs. j-rad ValueAddict vs. Dr. von Nostrand

I’m excited to participate! I look forward to outperforming as I always do.

JohnThainsLimoDriver, you are the man! MattLikesAnalysis, you are going down!!!

I never make these lists. :frowning:

question : how did you come up with that list of people?

I should have no problem effortlessly decimating the competition. To ensure the one-sided annihilation of my AF brethren, I shall begin training immediately.

How can we tell who the luckiest player is: Does the last guy standing get a million bucks, or do they get their heart cut out with a stone knife and thrown down an Aztec pyramid? Or both?

boom_or_bust Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I never make these lists. :frowning: Of course not, you have 15 posts in 9 months… But to ensure that you don’t feel cheated I’ll use you as the first of my many warm ups for the finals. I just flipped a coin and won, you have been eliminated.

boom_or_bust Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I never make these lists. :frowning: User Profile : boom_or_bust Posts: 15 Date Registered: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 at 10:57AM Some people have posted more in a few minutes than you have in the past multiple months.

Is this the AF prize determination?

I’ll be very skeptical when akanska, KarenC, and Mona all make the semi finals w/ JTLD.

brianr Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I’ll be very skeptical when akanska, KarenC, and > Mona all make the semi finals w/ JTLD. “I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this —- who will count the votes, and how.” - Stalin

Good one JTLD! Let’s play this tournament. Coincidently both my id’s made it to the list.

better play this tourney before the thread gets pulled.

lol. awesome. goldenboy, you should know that i actually used to play minor league coin flip.

SkipE99 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > lol. awesome. goldenboy, you should know that i > actually used to play minor league coin flip. this is the big leagues though

I once flipped 7 tails in a row. True story.

The results from Round 1 Matchups are in. Everyone in the first column was assigned heads. Everyone in the second column was tails. There was a total of 64 coin flips, with 31 heads and 33 tails as the result. Here are the winners and Round 2 Matchups: ws billwest tvPM MehdiOchre CFA_Halifax frisian tobias ymc Soda Popinski Mr.Good.Guy TheAliMan KarenC Black Swan philip.platt busprof phBOOM storko Turkish DanLieb Bankin’ comp_sci_kid DirtyZ oldmonk ahahah itstoohot KJH akanska EMRA32 Pox Americana joemontana gaffano s23dino fxguy1234 joeydvivre SkipE99 needhelp taz722 Carson Dwight artvandalay hala_madrid TheChad purealpha JOE2010 Captain Windjammer numi juventurd CFABLACKBELT jimjohn Etienne ConvertArb CFAdummy bromion Chuckrox8 XSellSide pimp sublimity dinesh.sundrani cjones65 marcus phoenix JustPass FrankArabia j-rad ValueAddict Round 2 Matchups: ws vs. billwest tvPM vs. MehdiOchre CFA_Halifax vs. frisian tobias vs. ymc Soda Popinski vs. Mr.Good.Guy TheAliMan vs. KarenC Black Swan vs. philip.platt busprof vs. phBOOM storko vs. Turkish DanLieb vs. Bankin’ comp_sci_kid vs. DirtyZ oldmonk vs. ahahah itstoohot vs. KJH akanska vs. EMRA32 Pox Americana vs. joemontana gaffano vs. s23dino fxguy1234 vs. joeydvivre SkipE99 vs. needhelp taz722 vs. Carson Dwight vs. artvandalay hala_madrid vs. TheChad purealpha vs. JOE2010 Captain Windjammer vs. numi juventurd vs. CFABLACKBELT jimjohn vs. Etienne ConvertArb vs. CFAdummy bromion vs. Chuckrox8 XSellSide vs. pimp sublimity vs. dinesh.sundrani cjones65 vs. marcus phoenix JustPass vs. FrankArabia j-rad vs. ValueAddict

YES!!! dinesh.sundrani, you are going down just like MattLikesAnalysis

AAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHH!!! Ousted in round one!! What the hell happened to “tails never fails”?