AF Coin Flip "Tournament" -- a study in statistical luck

It should be the much hyped AF prize.

this is kind of entertaining i’m not really understanding what this proves though? if 1,000,000 people do this coin toss, one person will win and is deemed the luckiest - as we think of lucky as someone who wins when the odds are not too good

That’s the point. The odds against any one person winning is 128:1, but the odds that someone will win is 100%. Very long odds for anyone one person to win so they will be perceived as lucky even though by definition someone has to win this thing.

Seriously, I can not be stopped. To think I almost gave up gambling for lent…but I forgot when lent was this year.

I cannot believe I got beat first round by chuck!

JohnThainsLimoDriver Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Round 3 Winners (7 heads, 9 tails): > > tvPM > ymc > TheAliMan > phBOOM > Turkish > oldmonk > akanska > joemontana > needhelp > artvandalay > hala_madrid > Captain Windjammer > CFAdummy > bromion > dinesh.sundrani > JustPass > > > Sweet 16 Matchups: > > tvPM vs. ymc > TheAliMan vs. phBOOM > Turkish vs. oldmonk > akanska vs. joemontana > needhelp vs. artvandalay > hala_madrid vs. Captain Windjammer > CFAdummy vs. bromion > dinesh.sundrani vs. JustPass Perhaps I was meant to be heads in the last round… That’s probably it. If you kindly retabulate the last round with me in the ‘heads’ position that would be most helpful.

Yeah, I got bounced out on round 1 too. I blame it on a Black Swan event.

woo-hoo!!! go me!

Man, I suck pretty badly. Justpass better win the whole thing so at least I can say that I was the unlucky one who drew the winner in the first round!

I have a strange feeling hala_madrid is going to win

when is the next round? I am sitting here practicing…

bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Yeah, I got bounced out on round 1 too. I blame > it on a Black Swan event. Definitely a Black Swan event!

If I win, you guys are all investing in my hedge fund. I’m way too lucky.

Dang I just stumbled upon this gem of a thread this morning only to find out I made it through 2 rounds unbeknownst to me. Here are my final four picks (from the sweet 16): tvPM Turkish needhelp CFADummy

The top half is obviously fixed. In the finals of the bottom bracket I’ve got: Captain Windjammer v. dinesh.sundrani

wow i rock!!! i beat joey???

jeez. i missed the whole tourney! bchad, i’m gonna step up and admit it, mine was a white swan incident. and i apologize to sublimity for my lack of trash talk. i’m usually the loudest mouth on the coin flip tour. best of luck to dinesh! Windjammer is far too green to win!

i just looked at this thread now… i lost in the first round… sad times… =(

JTLD you needed a more catchy subject line. many people ignored the boring subject line. boo

needhelp Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > JTLD you needed a more catchy subject line. many > people ignored the boring subject line. boo yeah. a title like “AF Coin Flip Tournament: Winner gets to Take WillyR’s mom to Zanzibar for a romantic evening out” for those of you not from the Toronto area, if there was an award for the dirtiest and stabbiest place one can imagine, hell itself would fall second to Zanzibar. oh, and its a rippers so don’t google search it at work or anything.