Am I misunderstanding modern portfolio theory and the efficient market hypothesis?

The efficient market hypothesis, as I understand it, is the theory that prices immediately reflect new information. The logic goes that since market prices already reflect all known information, and that market participants rationally digest information when making decisions, that an investor/investment manager/CFA cannot use

A) market timing

B) Security selection

to achieve superior investment performance.

Is this all a bunch of nonsense, or am I misunderstand the theory? If the CFA/investing society honestly believes that superior security selection is impossible, then why do we nuthug people like Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, and Bill Gross?

If we’re supposed to think that market participants are rationale, then why do we talk about books like Mania, Panics, and Crashes?

You have the right understanding. The efficient market theory/ modern portfolio theory is the real down and dirty theory-rational aspects. But the examples you’re thinking of is the irrational version : behavioral finance aspect. Note how the CAPM (and the many modified versions) only reflect aspects of the market. But in reality there’s the socio/psych aspects as well. Don’t worry, there’s a whole topic dedicated to the irrational aspect in the level 3 curriculum.

The EMH is a “hypothesis”. So, IF it holds, then in the weak form variant, technical analysis wouldn;t work. But that’s a conditional statement. If you could show that technical analysis does work (and there have been a metric butt-load of studies that fail to support that notion), we could say that markets aren;t weak-form efficient.

The superiority of Buffett and Lynch could be evidence that markets aren’t semi-strong form efficient, or it could be evidence that these two are either smarter than everyone else, have superior information, or have just been lucky as hell.

And I agree - behavioral finance is one of the better sections in L3.

I’m glad to see a prof admitting this. More people in academia should think like this.

The EMH is in the CBOK not because CFAI asserts that it is true, but because the debate about whether it is possible to beat a diversified index fund is a key discussion amongst financial professionals. There is a lot of debate about it, and people will constantly ask you whether you did well because you have a good process for identifying investments, or whether you just got lucky.

The three versions of the EMH are really just about where people think it might be possible to put in work to outperform a simpe market index over the long term. Remember that a simple market index can often be leveraged, so the mere fact that portfolio X earned more than the market is not enough. Really, the question is whether a market portfolio leveraged to the same level of risk as the comparison portfolio performed better, although if there are limits to your ability to leverage, that can sometimes be an argument against that comparison.

The strong form basically says that all relevant information is already known by market actors, and is almost certainly false, since it would imply that insider trading is not possible, and that just seems daffy. However, it’s useful in an academic sense to say “let’s forget about all that meddling and ‘what ifs,’” which is essential to making many mathematical arguments. In some sense, it’s a “ceteris paribus” disclaimer that allows one to do some math, as opposed to a view of reality that people genuinely believe, although sometimes people who do too much math start to believe their own assumptions too much.

The semi-strong form says that insider trading is possible, but nothing based on publicly available data works.

The weak form says that past price history is useless, but digging around in balance sheets and more-obscure-but-still-public information might offer some value (so Buffet could fit under this if you want).

If you think technical analysis works, then you don’t believe any of the forms of EMH. And there are plenty of people who think that technicals offer some value.

One of the paradoxes of the EMH is that if the EMH is true, it depends on at least some portion of investors not believing it’s true, since if everyone believed it, there would be no one to try to bring prices back into their equilibrium values, and this would create opportunities that destroy the EMH. So to my mind, the EMH goes through periods of time and/or situations where it is more likely and less likely to apply, depending on how good arbitrage profits have been recently.

But even for those of us (which is most of us) who don’t believe in the EMH literally, it is dangerous to dismiss the idea too casually, because even if there are ways to outperform the market (and most of us think there are), it is not an easy task to find those opportunities, and for many people, holding an index fund and dollar-cost-averaging is an easy way to get most of the gains that markets like the equity market can provide you. So you could get 5%-10% per year just by holding SPY. If you want to outperform that (on a risk adjusted basis), you are likely going to have to work very very hard, and you are likely only going to get an extra 1% or 2% return for all that work, when you match the risk of the active portfolio to the risk of the market portfolio.

So interpret the EMH as an important thinking process to go through “What makes me confident that all the work I’m putting in to my stock selection is going to net me more than a similarly-leveraged index fund?” If you have a defensible answer to that, you don’t have to believe the EMH; you just have to know about it.

I think the others have hit the nail on the head.

EMH is kinda like the Bible. Some people are devout followers who dedicate their whole lives to understanding it, or to proving/disproving it. Some people think it’s a bunch of gobbledy-gook. Whether or not you believe in it, it’s so influential in Western society that it would behoove you to at least understand the gist of the contents.

CFAI does not require that its members believe EMH. It doesn’t even particlulary endorse the theory. But it does recognize the fact that it is a cornerstone of financial theory. And anybody who claims to be versed in finance should at least be able to discuss it.

No offense, but are you really a finacial advisor given you ask such trivial questions?

Trader - most folks I know would have the same perspective. The question is where the empirical evidence leads us. I’m an empiricist agnostic on this (like on many issues).

you don’t have to understand finance to be a financial advisor. Trust me on this one.

I’m beginning to see how you racked up 4100 AF points.

This. Sale skills is more important. I’ve met many that didn’t even know how the index was calculated or how to calculate the current yield.

^

^ this. You could know a ton about finance and be crappy at sales and you wouldn’t last 3 months as an advisor. Or you could know nothing about finance and be great at sales and be the top advisor at your firm.

Financial Advisor is like saying you work on cars. you can get someone who only does high end luxury cars and is honest or you can get someone who changes oil at those 10 minute oil change places and rips everyone off.

Respect.

Don’t worry too much about it - learn what you must to spit up on the test, with the recognition that this stuff is almost totally useless when it comes to portfolio management.