Anatomy of a pass

a bit of encouragement, to me anyway. a 70 on this thing doesn’t seem too bad. a. let’s say you know half the questions cold…no problems. not too hard right? b. 10% you have no clue. guessing totally at random (equivalent of 2 entire vignettes) w/ an expected return of .25 points c. the other 40% you have a pretty good idea and can narrow down to 2 good answers. questions x expected # points/question a. 60 x 1 = 60 b. 12 x .25 = 4 c. 48 x .5 = 24 there you have 88 right answers, or a 73%, a comfortable pass. that doesn’t seem so bad does it? even if you miss 4 more you’re still at 70. c’mon guys, we’ve got this thing. no worries.

b and c are binomial distributions where the probability of success is 1/4 and 1/2, respectively.

thankfully probability junk isn’t on l2

That sure looks familiar to Mock 1 and 2 for me. And I pulled out 73% Overall. Lets hope this theory comes through Saturday!

I keep telling myself the same thing. key thing I find is to stay on top of timing in exam and cutting my losses on complex Qs perhaps with several calculations where I am unsure. falling behind the run rate really puts pressure on and forces unnecessary mistakes in my experience.

I think 12 x .25 is 3…

i’m an idiot. luckily simple multiplication isn’t tested too deeply. point remains the same…still 73%

Its too bad, as I could use some easy points here…