Looking for some feedback from others here. What websites do you use when you are researching/analyzing a firm. I understand that its best to pull together your own spreadsheet (plenty of raw data available) - but what do you use as a reference to compare your analysis? I find a number of technical analysis sites - but there are very limited resources available for fundamental analysis - especially once you get to mid-caps and small-caps and international equities. Thoughts/comments …
There isn’t a website like that. Thomson has analyst notes (if any) on various tickers, but there isn’t a good site. I guess you could try SeekingAlpha, but that site is basically the amature hour.
Depending on the company and industry you are looking at, your best bet is search Google for industry pubs and websites that could inform your analysis. The (relative) scarcity of information in many cases adds to the inefficiency. If you’re willing to do the hard work, you can sometimes find an edge relative to the Street on smaller names.
International is even more wild west since outside of Europe, most people have no clue how to analyze a business (some of the stuff coming out of Asia is so far off the mark it’s comical).
I work in Asia. I concur.
Found an interesting site searching through quora called analytixinsight. Anyone looked at this before?
In the past I used spreadsheets to analze companies based on their fundamentals. But it gets quite ugly after a while. Especially if you have to collect the data from all different kinds of websites. Also, I wanted to analyze a company financials graphically in a single chart and be able to compare it to a competitors.
Have a look at Stockdance. It is no website as you are looking for, but a desktop application. It supports some international stock exchanges such as Hong Kong and Singapore as well.
Just curious Bromion and TRH, are there any links you can post to give us a sense of how some of these “so off the mark, it’s comical” analyses are?
I believe you, I’d just like to get a sense of what crazy things they actually say?
Not that I can post specifically, but I invested in a Vietnamese candy company that has about 40% market share with a dominant brand and wide selection of candy types. In some candies they have 80%+ share. Vietnam has a per capita GDP of around $1,100 USD, a number that is set to grow for several decades as the country privatizes state owned enterprises and generally gears more toward a Western capitalist orientation, using China as a model. The population also grows at a decent clip of around 3% or something per year which is a tailwind.
Basically this company is well run, gaining share, and will benefit from the per capita GDP growth (when people have more disposable income they buy more candy). Further, as Vietnam because “retail-ized” moving toward more of a big box model (as all developing countries do), this candy company will be well positioned as the incumbent and will actually gain even more market share as shelf space is better controlled by fewer players. That and they could pick up the phone at any time and sell it Cadbury or someone.
This company was selling for 12x earnings. TWELVE – OMFG – TIMES EARNINGS. There was nothing at all wrong with the company or the balance sheet.
The “Street” in Vietnam had the stock at a hold because 12x is in line with the historic multiple the company had traded at, so meh, right? There was no understanding of brand, valuation, market position, GDP growth, or anything. It was just “12x P/E? So fairly priced, pass.”
This company will likely increase in value every year for the next 20 years or until it gets bought out. A ham sandwhich could run the business and be successful, it practically runs itself. 12x P/E, WTFFFFF. It is hard to get a trading license for Vietnam, but when they ease restrictions at some point in the future the multiple will expand quickly and the stock will become an institutional darling. It would still be cheap at 25-30x P/E depending on interest rates.
I find seeking alpha to be pretty useful.
How do you find these businesses? Do you just have to filter through alot of shit? The reason I ask is because this type of business seems pretty obscure to come across and would never come across any screen I would run.
Sort of, yeah. I did Vietnam in a week. There are about 650 stocks in Vietnam, of which 75 or so are liquid enough to buy. About 15 are good businesses. We bought 5, including the candy company. I did something similar in Malaysia and Indonesia. I tend to look at everything at once top down and then quickly cut to what seems most ineresting. Its easier in Vietnam because the market there is small. The US is vast.
A PE of 12 doesn’t seem so crazy if you consider a discount for country risk. However, your argument about growth prospects given the market and demographics, as well as lack of complexity are compelling. Presumably, even if a Nestle comes and buys them up, the business is valuable for its distribution network and established customer base.
Pe of 12 is crazy IMO for a branded 40% share business with structural tailwinds where earnings probably double every 4-5 years… Thats an 8.5% eps yield with rapidly growing eps. show me another stock like that anywhere… There are a few but not many. Vietnam has a messed up business culture by western standards but everyone loves candy, its hard to lose.
bromion, as bchad pointed out, your argument seems very solid, enough to surpass most country risk worries.
Hence, I won’t comment on this specific company, but on EM pricing in general. Country risk entails macro Vietnam risks. Even if Vietnam is doing alright, investors seem to apply a hefty discount to emerging markets most of the time. As far as I know, those discounts (when compared to developed markets) tend to be kept for the long run. Even if we don’t think the specific country risks are very meaningful, that may not matter much. Investors seem to apply a country risk discount anyway.
The US market may have a PE range over time from, let’s say, 12 to 20. The same range for Vietnam could be something like 6 to 15. The same company we may expect to get to 25 or 30 PE in US will probably not get that far in EMs. As for investor appetites, a 30 in US may represent a 22 in Vietnam.
Do you think this is an issue for EM companies? Are you controlling for this in any way?
An approach that I like is to check relative PEs. So I’d look at: (candy factory PE/Vietnam index PE). Then I may multiply this ratio for the US market PE. This is a rough way of “transforming” the EM firm price into a developed firm price. It helps to bypass country specific risks and country specific timing and focus mainly on the characteristics of the company.
I just discovered http://www.thinknum.com in this CFA Blog post: http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2014/01/13/making-sophisticated-financial-models-available-to-all-thinknum/
I am still trying to wrap my head around the whole site but I love it so far.
It depends on your tome horizon IMO, Crazyman. A specific em small cap would likely make a lousy hedge fund investment but could make an excellent private capital investment. I dont have any idea if the stock will go up next quarter or year even but I feel very confident it will go up a lot over time. The investor can hold it indefinitely which mitigates most of the country / macro / currency risk. When Vietnam opens to outside investors at some point the multiple will expand. In the mean time it grows nicely. Time arbitrage works very well since 99% of the market cant or wont do it.
www.quantguide.com is a cool website that provides fundamental analysis on stocks and funds/etfs as well as macro/economic score for global economies. This website also provides analysis on many small and mid cap names as well as international equities.
Site provides ratings on various fundamental factors including: quality, growth, valuation, risk, momentum and shareholder insight. Registered users have access to screening tool based on those factors.
I 've recently launched a new product called TagniFi where we standardize data similar to what Capital IQ and Factset offer. Our Excel add-in allows you to pull any of the data into your financial models automatically. We have dozens of models available that are plug and play or you can create your own model. Here is a DCF model that you might find useful:
We currently cover about 4,000 US companies which is over 98% of the US market capitlization. Shoot me a PM if you want more info or a demo.
Are you alternatively interested in Fundamentalist websites? I might have some links to Spiritually Fulfilling Career Opportunities Abroad.
Thomson has analyst notes (if any) on various tickers, but there isn’t a good site. I guess you could try SeekingAlpha, but that site is basically the amature hour.
what you need to ask for is “Thomson Investext”, this is a huge database of pdfs. you pay for every pdf you open:=D
Click on the link that says “Enroll in the CFA Program”