Hey everyone, Just completed level 2 (hopefully passed). I am getting married in September, and will be looking into either an apartment or a house over this summer. If there is anyone here with expertise in the housing market (specifically Long Island in NY) can I get your thoughts on whether renting for a while, or buying during the summer is more prudent? Will the housing market in Long Island and even Queens tank further? I would really prefer to look into trying to get a small house, but I also don’t want to buy and then see the values drop dramatically.
It’s not LI and I certainly wouldn’t call myself a real estate expert, but casually watching the Fairfield County mkt (specifically Greenwich/Stamford) for the past year or so leads me to believe that housing is still way overpriced in our neck of the woods and we certainly haven’t seen the huge down tick in prices that other overheated mkts have seen to date. I periodically check out raveis.com b/c they freely post how long a house/condo has been listed, the % change in offering price and they recently started publishing local housing data. If you check it out, you can see a lot of homes just sitting on the mkt and some fairly sizable cuts in offering price. The bottom line for me is that the fundamentals make no sense to buy if you’re a first time home buyer. I got a great example of this. My landlord recently offered me the oppty to buy the condo I rent for $320k ($570/sq ft!!). According to my fav mortgage calc (http://www.jeacle.ie/mortgage/), a 0% down (i know - impossible to get now) mortgage would cost me $1,539 at 6.25%. Add $230 property tax + approx. $300 assessment + approx. $50 insurance + $90 optional parking, the monthly cost would be $2,209. That’s a 50% premium to my monthly rent and nearly 3x the price she paid for it only 7 years ago!! And that’s not including the ton of money to update the place as it really does have rather crappy standard cabinets, counters and carpetting! So unless she accepts my $160k offer, it looks like I’ll have to give up my amazing top floor views of downtown Stamford and move out in the next few months as I don’t want intrusive visits from potential buyers. Does anyone know of any quality places for 1 BRs priced < $1800/month that are in a downtown location and convenient to get to the Greenwich train stop?
gotta include After tax interest payments and taxes for owning. also have to add insurance costs and “maintenance” for “own” I would guess that if RE is priced right (at this point) that renting will be priced at a premium to owning, based on the implied embedded put option (and the strong semivariant perception of downside)
When it becomes more or equally expensive to rent than to own, you know you are at or almost at the bottom of the market. We’re closing in on that in DC. From what I understand, that’s not going on in New York and may not for decades, if ever.
LI is still overpriced, although there are pockets that are beginning to become affordable. It depends how far out on the island you are willing to go. Personally, any commute beyond Mineola is too far, but that’s just me. I’m sticking it out another year, but then again I have a great rental deal. Good luck!
an awful lot of people have either not lowered the prices for their houses they are selling or have taken them off the market in NY which is why the drop in prices doesn’t look that bad. this theory that because it’s new york prices will never go down is ridiculous and not based at all by the historical numbers. i wouldn’t buy anything for at least 18 months. rentings is cheaper anyway. take the difference an invest it.
oskigo, bubble bursting and price drops are not one in the same. It’s not likely that the market will become significantly affordable compared to renting in the near term, or even the long term. That doesn’t mean prices won’t stabalize or drop at all.
kkent Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > oskigo, bubble bursting and price drops are not > one in the same. It’s not likely that the market > will become significantly affordable compared to > renting in the near term, or even the long term. > That doesn’t mean prices won’t stabalize or drop > at all. i don’t disagree. i still think new york and LA drops 15-20% in the next 18 months. we’ll see if i’m wrong.
If you rent, you can probably find 1-2 months of concession because of x,y, and z.
Hey everyone, Thanks for the responses. I have seen a lot of the stubbornness in sellers to lower prices on LI. I will probably look more towards apartments now, and also keep my eyes out if any deals arise for houses.