TheAliMan Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I really have a feeling pass rate is going to b e > 75% or higher this time around 
I dont think it will be lower than 70ā¦ it still says on the sample that 70 is proficient in each areaā¦ So since they didnt change this i would hope they wouldnt change the real thing. But that is mere speculation which i will stop now. CFAI wont read this and will do whatever they feel likeā¦
it happens to all of us, especially when drunk, i can give you a link to an indian pharmacyā¦
Iām not sure about the statistics of things, but I would suspect that the least chosen distractor on a particular exam is relatively small, which would mean that it doesnāt significantly improve the probabilities of guessing correctly. Again, pure speculation, no sense in guessing. However, I think that if they would have changed the MPS, they might have hinted at it. Imagine getting exactly 70 on every section, and seeing the word FAIL when results come out. That would be weird.
Here is a hypothesis to this phenomenonā¦Did you take the Schweser L2 exams last year. A lot of that material is the same. Maybe you donāt know the material, but subconsciously you know the answer because you answered that question last year.
Nope just took L1 in Dec 2008. I walked out of L1 feeling this same way, but somehow managed to score >70 in all sections.
For blind guess: E(R_blind_guess) =1/3 For āeducatedā guess: E(R_one_eliminated) = 1/2 No guess(including misunderstanding): E(R_no_guess) = ng? (<1) Given weights(# of question/120) w1, w2, and w3. the expected return: EĀ§=w1*1/3+w2*1/2+w3*ng. My w1 is high, ng is low, sigmaĀ§ is high. Try hard to get the expected score > 70% with low std dev. Not an easy task, perhaps the first thing is to reduce the surpise or unsystematic risk. Is the 3-choice question format raising the bar? The passing score shall be higher than last year for many reasons(mainly competition?), but itās a systematic risk for me.