Apple obviously… timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I would short them both: > > AAPL: - stock is a mini tech bubble, just read > some of the analyst forecasts, lol > > GOOG: - you can block 99% of their revenue with a > ad blocker… > > > both of these companies have unsustainable > earnings and will plummet with just one missed > earning call 39 out of the 43 have buys on the stock, which one are you reading?
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I would short them both: > > AAPL: - stock is a mini tech bubble, just read > some of the analyst forecasts, lol The analysts are bonkers for AAPL. Who are you looking at? > GOOG: - you can block 99% of their revenue with a > ad blocker… Yes but their ads are not that intrusive/annoying so most software like AdBlock Plus doesn’t filter them.
justin88 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > The analysts are bonkers for AAPL. Exactly why I don’t like them. Expectations are way too high.
monger187 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > justin88 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > > > The analysts are bonkers for AAPL. > > Exactly why I don’t like them. Expectations are > way too high. or its because they’ve done all the work and channel checking and found that there’s a reason to be bonkers. Whatever, you’re the expert here.
Look at both company’s cash flow statements. It’s scary how much cash they generate with so little costs (esepcially for Google). Google generates $6 to $10 billion in cash from operations each year. They can enter into almost any industry they want, give away the product for free, then subsidize it with their earnings from advertising. Apple generates enormous amounts of cash but they also a lot more expenses. Plus, the best thing going for Apple is their brand. If that were to deteriorate Apple’s value would plummet. I once heard that Google goes through the top computer science universities and cherry picks the top programming talent by the hundreds before Apple and Microsoft gets second picks. Both companies are extremely innovative. Apple came up with the iPhone which redefined the cell phone industry, created a new industry (apps), and is just really really cool. Google is innovative, because they do stuff like Google Earth. I can log on to any computer with an internet connection, and get a street side view of my house or almost any street in any medium sized city. Tell me thats not awesome. I think 5 years from now Apple may lose the cell phone market share because I don’t see how their model is sustainable there. In my opinion, apps will be one of the major determinants of who is dominant in that industry. Right now Apple collects 30% of the developers revenue when an app is sold. They also must approve every single app and they are only allowed to be sold through iTunes Store. If Google decides to subsidize this through their other revenue, and collect only say 5% of developers revenue that will hurt Apple. When the Nexus One will let developers list their apps anywhere and the apps won’t be subject to Google’s approval, better apps will come out for the Nexus One than iPhone. Apple will lose a lot of market share because of how greedy they are.
btw - google just got kicked out of the largest market in the world. apple is making the iphone available on the verizon network. hmmmmm
mini bubble for Apple? They only have 10% of the marketshare of PCs sold, lots of room to grow there. They have 16% of all smartphones, plenty of room for growth there as well. This plus the fact they’re hitting on all cylinders right now gives plenty of reason to be bullish on them. Apple is an amazing franchise with so many really innovative products coming to market. I think the shares are a bit on the high side for me to purchase, but that doesn’t stop me from enjoying my iPhone and Macbook each day…
timotimo- your problem is you think everyone out there is as rational as you are. Remember minidisks and laser disks? There are tons of products that are better as far as performance/ value/ logic that still don’t make it. See, if I were to do a side by side of a Hyundai vs a Audi I would go with the Hyundai… but my husband would divorce me 
There are plenty of people in the work that will pay a premium for a long list of illogical reasons and aapl has succeeded in cornering this market. What I do know is that aapl has <25 EPS. Thats not crazy for a growth company with such a strong balance sheet and such a sticky clientèle. The fact that it has gone from <15 EPS to current is not a bubble in my book- its a correction. If you looked at historical EPS for the stock its actually fallen greatly and excluding the crash is at 10 year lows.
Jscott24 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > monger187 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > justin88 Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > > > > The analysts are bonkers for AAPL. > > > > Exactly why I don’t like them. Expectations > are > > way too high. > > > or its because they’ve done all the work and > channel checking and found that there’s a reason > to be bonkers. Whatever, you’re the expert here. I’m finally getting my props!
akanska Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > timotimo- > > your problem is you think everyone out there is as > rational as you are. Remember minidisks and laser > disks? There are tons of products that are better > as far as performance/ value/ logic that still > don’t make it. See, if I were to do a side by > side of a Hyundai vs a Audi I would go with the > Hyundai… but my husband would divorce me > There are plenty of people in the work that will > pay a premium for a long list of illogical reasons > and aapl has succeeded in cornering this market. > > > What I do know is that aapl has <25 EPS. Thats > not crazy for a growth company with such a strong > balance sheet and such a sticky clientèle. The > fact that it has gone from <15 EPS to current is > not a bubble in my book- its a correction. If you > looked at historical EPS for the stock its > actually fallen greatly and excluding the crash is > at 10 year lows. Kind of the way I feel about 3DTV, will never make it
Jscott24 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Apple obviously… > > > > timotimo Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I would short them both: > > > > AAPL: - stock is a mini tech bubble, just read > > some of the analyst forecasts, lol > > > > GOOG: - you can block 99% of their revenue with > a > > ad blocker… > > > > > > both of these companies have unsustainable > > earnings and will plummet with just one missed > > earning call > > > 39 out of the 43 have buys on the stock, which one > are you reading? Thats the point, when analysts acting like idiots just as they were during the tech bubble. forecasts of 5 million ipads sold this year, lol. not going to happen, here is one reason: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ytech_gadg/20100406/tc_ytech_gadg/ytech_gadg_tc1480 I’m a very bearish person though(which made me a fortune past few years)
I am 14% invested in both stocks (GOOG + APPL) combined GOOG is up +62.16% AAPL is up +20.76% Talk about Killin it!
justin88 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > timotimo Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I would short them both: > > > > AAPL: - stock is a mini tech bubble, just read > > some of the analyst forecasts, lol > > The analysts are bonkers for AAPL. Who are you > looking at? > > > > GOOG: - you can block 99% of their revenue with > a > > ad blocker… > > Yes but their ads are not that intrusive/annoying > so most software like AdBlock Plus doesn’t filter > them. what? ABP blocks all google ads period, and thus blocks all their fucking revenue/profits I see 60 - 80% of browsers have ad blockers on by default in the next few years
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Jscott24 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Apple obviously… > > > > > > > > timotimo Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > I would short them both: > > > > > > AAPL: - stock is a mini tech bubble, just > read > > > some of the analyst forecasts, lol > > > > > > GOOG: - you can block 99% of their revenue > with > > a > > > ad blocker… > > > > > > > > > both of these companies have unsustainable > > > earnings and will plummet with just one > missed > > > earning call > > > > > > 39 out of the 43 have buys on the stock, which > one > > are you reading? > > > Thats the point, when analysts acting like idiots > just as they were during the tech bubble. > > forecasts of 5 million ipads sold this year, lol. > not going to happen, here is one reason: > http://news.yahoo.com/s/ytech_gadg/20100406/tc_yte > ch_gadg/ytech_gadg_tc1480 > > I’m a very bearish person though(which made me a > fortune past few years) as was I prior to the meltdown, now I’m not though… times change. Being bearish oct08-present would not make you a fortune.
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > forecasts of 5 million ipads sold this year, lol. > not going to happen, here is one reason: > http://news.yahoo.com/s/ytech_gadg/20100406/tc_yte > ch_gadg/ytech_gadg_tc1480 Yeah I am sure a slate computer running Windows 7 is going to be much better than a Slate that is running an OS designed for touch screen devises. (not)
should have listened to me OWNED
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > should have listened to me > > OWNED How do you figure? AAPL is up 3% since your call on Apr 9. It has outperformed the Nasdaq since Apr 9, GOOG has underperformed the Nasdaq. However, the correct underlying trade – short the market – was not your call. GOOG is not down because of ABP; it’s down because of net neutrality risk. Better to be lucky than good.
I stand for value
kevinf12 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I stand for value If you do then I would sell all holdings in AAPL and GOOG then since they are POS and take a short position all the way to zero… net neutrality risk? what? yeah, right. GOOG is down because it is a one trick pony and main source of profit can and will disappear as everyone installs ad blockers…
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > kevinf12 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I stand for value > > > If you do then I would sell all holdings in AAPL > and GOOG then since they are POS and take a short > position all the way to zero… > > > net neutrality risk? what? yeah, right. GOOG is > down because it is a one trick pony and main > source of profit can and will disappear as > everyone installs ad blockers… If they are charged by ISPs for all the spidering they do, their operation margin will deteriorate (even further) than it has in the past few years.