Resurrecting a 10 month old posting here. I’ve got some cash to invest and I’m thinking of buying GOOG. Had a good run over the last couple of months. Apple has obviously had a phenomenal year. Can they keep growing earnings as have done recently? I love Google as a company. Pure cash machine and I see good long term growth prospects as internet traffic grows globally. Massive margins, cash generation and dominant market share. I think Google is a winner long-term. So what about Apple? Hard to express just how spectacularly well it has performed over the last 5-10 years. Innovation on a scale rarely seen by any company over the last 100 years. Apps now a huge cash generator and growing fast. Can still grow share in computer market. Also with Apples track record would you doubt them coming out with another superstar product? Still, I have lingering doubts as to whether Apples star can stay shining this brightly indefinitely. Interested to see people’s opinions on these two stocks.
Still like them both. Google is relatively staid, if that’s your style. With Apple you have some tail risk (Jobs’s health, manufacturing scalability) but the future looks bright, both in the near term (catalysts of ipad2 and CDMA+GSM iphone5s) and medium term (migration of pc -> tablets, smartphones, transition to online marketplaces for apps, music, movies).
Have both and wish I had more. I’d stick with them. These two and facebook are the three best out there…
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I see 60 - 80% of browsers have ad blockers on by > default in the next few years Interesting. Who do you see including these? Google, on their Chrome browser? Microsoft (also big in search) on IE? I use FireFox, and they haven’t bothered to do so yet.
Long Google Short apple Google can quietly pick up pennies, but it all adds up to a significant $s on their balance sheet. I’d say their earnings are less concentrated. Consumers can hardly notice the leakage to Google in the final cost they pay for a product. Apple pricing is in your face. I think it is easier for competition to create alternatives to Apple. Too hard to create an alternative to Google. (confess: don’t know much about Baidu though). Android as a platform is working out quite well, although i admit Froyo and older are shit compared to Apple. But remember so was Win 3.1 v/s its competition that time (apple again) Besides Apple needs a constant innovation machine, because competition can match it’s specs within a year. It make sense to buy the whole Apple products bundle. That’s a major turn off for most, especially me. (Personally i like the IPad, i think it is fantastic and beats current competition hands down, but I am not buying it.) MSFT fortunes were created on the bases of their platform windows. I reckon Google has a solid platform. Apple platform competes with MSFT to some extent. Also I think Google is better placed to understand internet users preferences and behavior. A revenue stream that people are attributing to FB but i think it rightly belongs to GOOG.
Looks like Steve Jobs is on his way out fyi. There are lots of rumors that he is terminal now. I don’t think this has a huge effect on Apple in the long run though.
^ Source? Last I read he was still heavily involved in the company and was actually seen walking around on the campus.
Source seems to be the National Enquirer - the premier source of business information for Wall Street professionals…
Regarding Google, I’m not convinced of their long term prospects. Most of their revenue comes from advertising and search, and it’s a business with very low switching costs. Not saying another competitor is immediately on the horizon, but I don’t see it as impossible that another firm with a search engine and advertising platform could take away their market share. Perhaps an alliance of Microsoft and Facebook may pose serious problems for them in the future.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dr3S8zqPnj4/TTVmjYCaGhI/AAAAAAAATjw/pHzIthd47NE/s1600/market-share-large-1024x768.png Google is a quasi-monopoly in Europe. Big market leader in the US. Asia is the real battleground now. A major positive I see for Google is that its main rival in the asian markets listed is different in each country. So there appears to be no rival out there who can realistically challenge them any time soon. My guess is that they will slowly come to dominate the Asian markets as they have in the west as their product offering is simply better. Can Facebook really be a threat long term in the search space? It is hypothetically possible of course but how likely is it?
I agree that Google is a monopoly in many places. But why do you feel they can keep it up? Say someone comes out with another search engine, like Bing, and an advertising platform like Facebook, you don’t think people will switch over from Google? The way I see it, Google has a good product, but I don’t think it will stop people from switching over if a better one comes along. There is no psychological attachment to the Google brand name the way there is to say BMW or Apple.
Palantir Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- >There is no psychological attachment to the Google brand name the way there is to say BMW or Apple. I realize this article is old but I’d say Google has a very strong brand value. http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/googlethemedia.digitalmedia
ChickenTikka Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Looks like Steve Jobs is on his way out fyi. > There are lots of rumors that he is terminal now. > I don’t think this has a huge effect on Apple in > the long run though. I guess that was a false rumor huh…