In another thread somebody said autos are finished. I disagree. The price point for gas has been reached where if you drive a car that gets 15 mpg your variable costs for just operating that car are aproximately the same as the TOTAL costs for leasing/buying a new PRIUS (or any really efficient car). This reminds me of the CD revolution in the music industry! Sure, it’s the end of the world for vinyl but if you’re making fuel efficient cars you ought to be rolling in $$$ soon enough!
Autos are definitely not finished, but US automakers might be.
Good thing Virgin has finally accepted that vinyl is done.
REEs or REOs
I have not accepted it. The market has accepted it. In reality, vinyl is better than digital. Sound is a continuous, smooth waveform that stimulates a microphones diaphragm. The diaphragm converts that stimulus into electricity. Even in the form of electricity it is still a continuous, smooth waveform. That electricity eventually makes it to a tape and then a cutting needle, where that exact same waveform cuts into a piece of vinyl. The vinyl that you take home is a mirror reflection of the actual music. The signal is amplified but it remains continuous all the way up to your speakers. When the waveform hits your ear it is still an exact reflection of the original. It really is like an elaborate reflection similar to mirrors. Digital is different. When a sound is converted into bits it is not converted smoothly, it is sampled. Yes, it is sampled a lot (44,100 times per second for an audio CD) but it is still sampled. When it is converted back to an analog signal to push your speakers, it is not smooth, but squared like a jigsaw. Some digital to analog converters attempt to smooth it out but they can never do a perfect job because they’re missing the stuff in between their samples. A speaker cannot play a squared waveform so it, in effect, smooths it out. The result is music that sounds really good but it is missing something which many talented people can hear… a sort of airy warmth quality. New recording technology allows music to be sampled at frequencies in excess of 192k. The human cannot hear frequencies anywhere near that high but it improves the quality making the digital reproduction sound more like analog. Vinyl rules!
virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > In another thread somebody said autos are > finished. I disagree. The price point for gas > has been reached where if you drive a car that > gets 15 mpg your variable costs for just operating > that car are aproximately the same as the TOTAL > costs for leasing/buying a new PRIUS (or any > really efficient car). This reminds me of the CD > revolution in the music industry! Sure, it’s the > end of the world for vinyl but if you’re making > fuel efficient cars you ought to be rolling in $$$ > soon enough! What are your top auto picks then?
OK, I was wrong.
Virgin, you’re such a musicslut! 
@ virgin: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyquist_rate So to sample something well, you need to sample at a frequency at least double the highest frequency you want to hear. So 44.1kHz should be ok up to 22.05kHz sound. Given that the range of human hearing in a young, healthy person is usual given as 20-20,000Hz, CDs should be fine. If you are some kind of genetic bat/human hybrid, then maybe 60kHz sampling frequency would be justified. But 192kHz sampling is just ridiculous. The correct answer for why Vinyl isn’t obsolete is because you can scratch ‘dem up like a biatch and make sum bangin’ choons.
You’re talking about a part of the puzzle that I have no problem with. In fact, vinyl isn’t capable of reproducing ultra high frequencies either. It just makes the frequencies in the MIDDLE sound better because it doesn’t slice & dice the waveform like digital does. Regardless, the whole point of my analogy (pun) was that EVERY SINGLE SUV that GM and Ford sold in the last few years is now obsolete with these high fuel prices. A consumer can think that prices will go back down and keep driving, OR they have a strong economic incentive to replace the car if they think the high prices are here to stay… like vinyl/cds… their entire catalog will be replaced in a new format.
Or a consumer can just not deal with it and keep paying at the pump. In any event, I think a consumer that bought a Ford Expedition two years ago is very unlikely to say “Well, that didn’t turn out so well. Gotta turn it in and eat a $20K loss because it’s no longer practical to drive”. The reason they bought the Expedition in the first place is that there are things about driving an Expedition they like better than driving the Prius (“Can’t mow down Joey with a Prius; dent it all up. Easy to mow down Joey in an Expedition.”)
Joey, You’re right they are not interchangeable. Let me say it another way. I agree the consumer might not figure this out but here it is: The VARIABLE costs for driving an Expedition are approaching the TOTAL costs of driving a prius. In other words, whatever salvage value the consumer gets for their 2 year old Expedition is FREE MONEY. THAT is bullish for auto manufacturers.
Virgin, you’re right. The problem at the moment is the production capacity isn’t there for the Prius and other Hybrids, that’s why there is a 4 month wait. But as factories are retooled and efficient cars start coming off the line, sales will start going back up. Plus Honda and Toyota are supposedly introducing brand new next-gen hybrid vehicles for 2009 that I imagine will sell like hot-cakes.
I have DJ’ed using vinyl since I started spinning in 2001 and IMO, nothing will EVER replace that feeling of manipulating a vinyl pie on a Tech 12 platter. From the DJ perspective, this has been an ongoing debate between vinyl purists and people that think digital (ex. Pioneer CDJ-1000’s) is the be all and end all. Yes, I do play mostly mp3’s now on CDs, but miss the art of DJ’ing using a turntable and showmanship that comes along with it. As for auto discussion, is there a fund or ETF that tracks only environmentally-friendly companies, like Ballard that makes fuel cells or First Solar…I guess like an energy sib-sector fund or something?
All these hybrids are starting to make me feel bullish on companies involved in HazMat disposal. Those hybrids have 8 BATTERIES a piece, vs. one in an old fashioned internal combustion car. When those batteries reach the end of their useful lives, they gotta’ go somewhere. All the eco-maniacs are on the verge of causing an ecological catastrophe of their own. No thanks…I’ll stick with a couple of nice little fuel efficien (non-hybrid) vehicles in my family until hydrogen fuel cells have their day in the sun…
gangrel Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- >. When > those batteries reach the end of their useful > lives, they gotta’ go somewhere. Iraq
virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Joey, You’re right they are not interchangeable. > Let me say it another way. I agree the consumer > might not figure this out but here it is: > > The VARIABLE costs for driving an Expedition are > approaching the TOTAL costs of driving a prius. > > In other words, whatever salvage value the > consumer gets for their 2 year old Expedition is > FREE MONEY. > > THAT is bullish for auto manufacturers. Over what span of time? The profit margins on a prius are not comparable to those of large SUV’s (i.e. - volume is necessary, but not sufficient). Notice that the 3 largest Japanese manufacturer’s are currently struggling to meet demand in the small car segment, however they are still losing their asses due to deteriorating profit margins and higher raw material costs. Toyota and Nissan were downgraded just this morning by Nomura. The global automotive industry is undergoing a seachange. Domestic OEM’s will cease to exist in their current capacity sometime in the not too distant future. Consolidation will play a key roll in the industries recovery. Betting on any OEM at this point is like trying to call a bottom in financials. Just my $.02.
virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > In another thread somebody said autos are > finished. I disagree. The price point for gas > has been reached where if you drive a car that > gets 15 mpg your variable costs for just operating > that car are aproximately the same as the TOTAL > costs for leasing/buying a new PRIUS (or any > really efficient car). This reminds me of the CD > revolution in the music industry! Sure, it’s the > end of the world for vinyl but if you’re making > fuel efficient cars you ought to be rolling in $$$ > soon enough! I was the one who made the statement that airlines are like the auto industry - finished. I’m saying that from an investor’s point of view. Both are capital intensive and the returns aren’t good at all. There are a lot of better companies out there outside of both of these industries to invest in. Both industries will always be around whether through bankruptcies or profitable years. Granted you’re right that someone should be rolling in the dough making fuel efficient cars. I think there is too much uncertainty regarding what is the best substitute for gas when it comes to running a car. Once that substitute’s industry is TRULY economically viable then you’ll see a dynamic change in the auto industry.