Sch book 1, page 192
Dear all,
Can anyone explain the difference between base rate neglect and sample using an example.
It is also hepful If someone is aware of an earlier and can guide me.
Thank you
This is how I remember this:
Both base rate neglect and sample size neglect lead you to making conclusions too hastily.
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Base rate neglect - making up your mind about something based on secondary factors, while failing to consider the basic, more predominant ones. I.e. you see a guy with a camera taking a picture of his family in front of the Eifel Tower. You conclude that he is a tourist because he is with his family (perhaps family vacation), visiting a popular landmark in a popular destination, and taking pictures - all of these typical for a tourist. However, anyone might want to take a picture of his family in front of the Eifel Tower and given that the vast majority of people in Paris are locals, it would be safer to say that he is local.
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Sample size neglect - when you don’t account for the number of observation when making conclusions. I.e. you want to compare the law schools of two very similar, in terms of ranking and size, Universities. To do that, you decide that you’ll interview students who just took the preliminary bar exam. You interview 10 people from University A and find out that 9 of them passed, indicating a passing rate of 90%. Then you interview 200 students from University B and find out that 150 passed - passing rate of 75%. Based on that data you conclude that University A has a program, which better prepares their students. However, just by pure chance you could have picked 10 of University A’s top law students, thereby skewing your results. On the other hand, having 200 observations is a sufficiently large sample size to give you a more accurate picture of the statistical distribution of the results in University B.
I hope that helps.