Not sure if anyone here reads Gladwell, or used to work for Bear. Interesting article called “Cocksure: Banks, battles, and the psychology of overconfidence.” Very interesting read. http://www.gladwell.com/2009/2009_07_27_a_cocksure.html
Before reading anything from Gladwell, I recommend Pinker’s “Igon Value Problem” article in the NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/15/books/review/Pinker-t.html There’s also a back and forth on Gladwell’s blog that follows; I’ll let you form your own opinions.
Very interesting, thank you.
i had dinner with this dude last year and he told a wall street joke. should of been cool in texas right? half the table were energy traders with wall street firms. dude is funny tho
love it Several years ago, a team headed by the psychologist Mark Fenton-O’Creevy created a computer program that mimicked the ups and downs of an index like the Dow, and recruited, as subjects, members of a highly paid profession. As the line moved across the screen, Fenton-O’Creevy asked his subjects to press a series of buttons, which, they were told, might or might not affect the course of the line. At the end of the session, they were asked to rate their effectiveness in moving the line upward. The buttons had no effect at all on the line. But many of the players were convinced that their manipulation of the buttons made the index go up and up. The world these people inhabited was competitive and stressful and complex. They had been given every reason to be confident in their own judgments. If they sat down next to you, with a tape recorder, it wouldn’t take much for them to believe that they had you in the palm of their hand. They were traders at an investment bank.